Kastler

$HIMS labs have made a 100x clearer picture of my health than my normal doctors ever have. Labs show you exactly what’s out of range (even if borderline) and show how to improve.

$ASTS fell ~16% AH on the word “dilution.” The market read the headline. Almost nobody read the structure. There are two kinds of dilution. One funds the burn: shares sold at the low because the company has no choice. The other buys the bottleneck: long-dated capital that attacks the one constraint holding the thesis back. Today was the second kind, and the term sheet says so five different ways. → $1B convertible due 2034. Seven and a half year money. Not one share sold at $56. → Converts at a premium to be set at pricing. Dilution only happens meaningfully higher. → Management is spending part of the proceeds on capped calls, real cash whose only job is pushing the effective dilution price higher still. Companies that don’t care about shareholders skip that line item. → Settlement at the company’s election: cash, shares, or mix. If the thesis works, they can pay 2034 in dollars, not paper. → Institutions asked to eat $1B of unsecured ASTS credit. They said yes. And the key is the use of proceeds: securing additional access to orbit and cutting reliance on third-party launch. Their launch provider is also their direct competitor. And it’s about to IPO. You do not want your supply chain owned by the company you’re disrupting. This is $1B of independence. Why the ugly tape anyway? Convert buyers short the stock on announcement to hedge. That flow is mechanical, indifferent, and temporary. Flows, not verdict. Read term sheets, not headlines. Yes, bad timing today. Long 🟠 $ASTS

$KRKNF $PNG.V Greg Reid CEO of Kraken bought shares in the open market today. This marks the third insider purchase within a week, just after the biggest M&A of Kraken's existence. If this isn't a sign, I don't know what to tell you. 🦑 Kraken down 8% on the day this happened.

This chart is why I'm staying away from the SpaceX IPO. Five of the most hyped IPOs of the last 15 years, and every single one collapsed after listing. - UBER lost 70% of its IPO price. - META crashed 77% from its peak. - Robin Hood fell 92%. - Coinbase fell 93%. - Rivian fell 95%. The hype is always priced in on day one. The people who bought the hype got crushed. But look at where the real money was made. At the bottom, when nobody wanted these stocks. Robinhood went up 22x from its low. Meta went up 45x. Uber 7x. Patience beat hype in every single case and Rivian reminds us that even patience doesn't save every company. SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO of the decade. History tells me I don't need to be there on day one. If it's a great business, there will be a better price later. There almost always is. First they fall. Then they fly.

THE DIE IS CAST: "there's no event in the history books that combines the current global population with the impending fertilizer shortage and the strength of the coming El Nino. We are about to witness an unprecedented event that will push crops around the globe to their limit."

A lot of people are asking how I landed on $42K to $47K as my target for this cycle’s $BTC low and thought I’d share it publicly Bitcoin has always went below its average buy price (Realized Price - Market Price) / Realized Price) each bear market Here’s the data from previous cycles: - 2011 to 2012 cycle: dropped 61% below the average buy price - 2014 to 2015 cycle: dropped 45% below - 2018 to 2019 cycle: dropped 30% below - 2022: dropped around 24–30% below As you can see, from cycle-to-cycle the drop is lower and lower If you assume the following drops from average buy price this cycle, you will see the following: - 10% drop = $47.4K - 15% drop = $44.8K - 20% drop = $42.1K - 25% drop = $39.5K - 30% drop = $36.9K Assuming it only goes 10% to 20% below is how I got my figures But here’s the thing, people have experienced a few cycles and now understand more how Bitcoin has historically behaved so this all may get front runned Also since Bitcoin became significantly more institutional - it’s been trading along the stock market on red days so if you also think the stock market will correct until the midterm elections like it historically has, then we may see the scenario above play out (at least getting to the realized buy price) Buying here at $60K is also not a bad idea to start a DCA as a hedge I’m personally starting a DCA here of 2% of my capital per week and expecting we range in the $60K’s for 16-20 weeks before the next move up or down GLHF remember the goal is to get close to the bottom not try and time it exactly Last point - I don’t think “the low” happens in Q4, most likely from June to September (end of Q2 or Q3) ✌️

Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted in the Southern District of New York. Nicolas Maduro has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States. They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts. On behalf of the entire U.S. DOJ, I would like to thank President Trump for having the courage to demand accountability on behalf of the American People, and a huge thank you to our brave military who conducted the incredible and highly successful mission to capture these two alleged international narco traffickers.

Mastic Gum literally ELIMINATED H. pylori bacteria in 14 days Bloated after meals? White or yellowish tongue? Fatigue for no reason? that's NOT just "food sensitivity" or "bad digestion." That's H. pylori infection - and it's: • eating through your stomach lining • triggering chronic inflammation • destroying your gut barrier In one study, just 1.05g of mastic gum daily for 14 days COMPLETELY ELIMINATED H. pylori in 38.5% of people - without any antibiotics or harsh side effects and what it does to your gut after killing H. pylori is even CRAZIER here's exactly how to use it to kill bad bacteria (and the 3 mistakes that kill results):