Unclebear20180113

@operdoor2 @Opendoor @nejatian If they cant disclose it to the shareholders now, how about Eric jackson to say something..

@operdoor2 @Opendoor @nejatian Really hope opendoor management can help explain it to shareholders

Whether looking at my own data or the info on https://opendoor.arm @Opendoor's pending count has stopped growing for 3 months now since April. Wondering what’s going on over at @opendoor 🤔" @nejatian

@operdoor2 @Opendoor Your data source is MLS right? Is it possible opendoor is transacting privately and not covered from your data source?

@Opendoor under contract to buy ~7,000 homes in Q2, but my data (w/ ~80% coverage) only shows around 2,700 homes listed—scaled up to 100%, that’s only ~3,400. Still a massive gap compared to their acquisitions. Anyone know what's causing this huge discrepancy? $OPEN

@ericjackson opendoor.army/command-center… Can you please look into this data? For the last 30 days, 576 sales only and 274 failed contracts.....thats real bad imo.... If this data is accurate, opendoor will be bleeding cash just like previous years and stock price will free fall from here..

You don’t stay relevant by staying in your lane. You stay relevant by becoming more interesting. I think that’s why we’ve spent 15 years talking about Drake. And why I stopped listening to people who told me to “just tweet about stocks.” Day 319.

@jeffye888 @WarrenPies @excessreturnpod opendoor.army/command-center… Can you please look into this data? For the last 30 days, 576 sales only and 274 failed contracts.....thats real bad imo.... If this data is accurate, opendoor will be bleeding cash just like previous years and stock price will free fall from here..

100% worth a listen from @WarrenPies and @excessreturnpod - some of the best takes on macro and market dynamics bar none I’m of the same mind that the Warsh fed is especially mindful of the “sledgehammer” dynamic of hikes - specifically on housing $OPEN youtu.be/Zfzoy3R7vjU?is…

@SingularityRes Thanks for your reply. Then its bad news for opendoor investors

@Unclebear201801 That’s still working and accurate.

I would have expected markets to crash (irrespective of the job data)

@ericjackson Have u been watching opendoor's home sales trend lately? Nothing worthwhile to get obsessed with

Same goes for Drake… same goes for stocks… why should anyone care about what you say UNLESS you’re obsessed! 😍

@jeffye888 @cubeqube @operdoor2 @cal_arora I hope your thesis is right but it looks bad when the mgt is not showing up to give us some hints on it...seems to me they are facing sth they didnt expect before

EDIT: @cal_arora (former CIO) correctly pointed out that the bottom pink line of the macro supplement isn't OD specifically but just the market adjusted for Opendoor's buybox. Given that, the argument is definitely a little weaker but I still find it hard to imagine that Opendoor would perform worse than market on a buy-box adjusted basis.

So I looked deeper into $OPEN's resale performance and I came out generally positive. I'm not sure what the difference between the @cubeqube and @operdoor2 numbers are but cube's numbers would suggest that Open resale is doing fine (contract rate is improving / steady) while Operdoor's would suggest it's struggling. (yes I understand pendings lag listings to some extent but Operdoor's chart shows no change in pending #'s since April despite listings almost doubling - that's bad if the data is correct - no way around it) Given that I don't have deep clarity into how the 3rd party source data is built up, first thing I did was look at the macro supplement from Opendoor's last earnings and noted clearance rate as reported by them. You'll see the two pink lines (2026) are basically identical and roughly flat which means Opendoor still largely tracks overall market performance. 2nd thing I did was look at NAR's pending sales index which shows a nice improvement in contract activity into May (despite higher rates but aligning with overall housing market commentary) Given that (1) Opendoor tracks MLS and (2) buyer demand remains strong my strong hunch is that Opendoor's resale performance remains strong -> also reflected in their strong acquisition numbers. My overall mental model is that resale performance actually drives the whole business - not seller acquisitions and it seems like the company is still on the right track

@T7EJY Wake up, they are still selling houses at the same pace while they have increased acquisitions for like 6 months already.. things are not looking good and i bet CEO will have to make an excuse on it in the next ER

The $OPEN bear thesis needs old data to survive Gross margin: 7.7% → 10% Contribution margin: 1% → 4.4% → ~6% guided Aged inventory: 33% → 10% Revenue: +25% QoQ guided. EBITDA breakeven. This isn’t PUMP It’s an operating inflection hiding in plain sight ⏳

@operdoor2 @Opendoor This is what i have been talking about for the last 2 months and the blind bulls are denying to accept it

Recently, the number of listings on @Opendoor has been steadily increasing, but pending and sold properties haven't kept up, which is a bit concerning. $OPEN

@HHGF99 Inaccurate. Just think about does opendoor sell over 85% of its Q1 acquisition in Q2. So far the data is suggesting way less than it

🚨 $OPEN Explosive Q3 Scenario 🔥 Opendoor has already averaged 450 acquisitions per week over the last 3 months. 13 weeks in Q2 = ~5,850 acquisitions. With the ~110-150-day buy-to-sell cycle, this flows into ~5000–5,800+ homes sold in Q3. Buckle up. A thread:

@ssj2abid @InvestWithFelix The data is already reflecing the sales in the last 30 days.. so i dun think it is following the acquisition from q1... I think theres maybe sth happening within opendoor that everyone is trying to ignore

@Unclebear201801 @InvestWithFelix The sales of new homes acquired follow through in the next quarter, Expect a big Q2/Q3 in terms of sales, Also many acquisitions drop, roughly 80-85% close. Just give it time, Q2 onwards should be good

Opendoor 2.0: The Singularity Scaler Nobody Is Pricing In A road to a $1000 per share. $OPEN is sitting at $4.42. EBITDA profitable ahead of schedule. 5,000+ acquisition contracts in Q1 — best since 2022. LTM free cash flow: +$519M. Was -$6.3B in 2021. The market is still pricing it as a broken iBuyer. It's becoming a housing OS. Full breakdown 🧵

@jeffye888 Rmb the outstanding shares back then were like 2/3 of the current amount.... So $40 back then translates to $27 share price as of now

$OPEN already hit $40 in 2021 so I see $100 as inevitable with this team. I could also see this happening (much) sooner with a housing rebound. $500 is harder to call but with the TAM I don't think it's a big stretch. $UBER hit $200B market cap on a much smaller TAM.

@nejatian @LiebermanAustin Voted for you from an individual shareholding holding 184k shares since 2023.... Love how you changed the company so fast but on 2), is it fair to say the % of home declined so quickly from 51% to 10% was due to the newer and much larger acquisitions?

I think I said the best way to judge the company is across three management objectives. I said that a few weeks after I took over. Those where 1) can we scale acquisitions 2) can we improve unit economics and resale velocity while reducing aged inventory and 3) can we build operating leverage (i.e. make sure our contribution margin could cover our fixed cost by increasing former and holding latter steady). on 1) 500%ish YoY, and Q1 2026 was the highest acq since 2022 and double Q4 2025. on 2) % of homes on the market over 120 Days declined from 51%+ when I took over to ~10% last quarter, over the same period the market went the other direction and went from like 20%ish to 33% ish. Contribution Margin has improved every single month since my first day and March was the highest contribution margin in any quarter for some time. October, November, December, and January cohorts are each selling faster than any corresponding cohort since COVID. on 3) Fixed opex was down both QoQ and YoY. And trailing 12 moth opex as a % of revenue is steady at 1.3% QoQ and since CM is up we are going in the right direction. Those are the financial numbers, but also if you look at the people who are coming into Opendoor - they are exceptional and I'd put them up against any tech company. If you look at our shipping velocity, it is higher than it is has been in years (possibly ever?). We went from 35% of the market to 95% market in coverage. Our capital light product went from 0 to a third of our volume. etc. etc.

Open question for @nejatian What do you feel you have done to continue being the CEO of $OPEN? What changes/adjustments will shareholders see from you based on what you’ve learned/seen so far?

@Hennsify @Opendoor @RealScout Too early to tell, and for a part time agent, the average closing is only like 1-3 each year. So impact to opendoor may not be that significant

@Opendoor dropped their @RealScout integration on May 19 — cash offers now embedded directly in the workflow for 100k+ agents. The whole point of this agent push is to remove friction and accelerate signed acquisition contracts. First real read on whether it’s working should show up in next Tuesday’s acquisition contracts numbers. Curious to see the early signal. That’s when the accountability clock starts ticking. 👀 $OPEN

@jeffye888 Love this chart too. But this chart also tells sth else, say if this chart was prepared as of the date of the earnings call. It also implied 35%, 25% and 15% of their oct nov and dec cohorts are unsold for like over 5-7 months.

Still can’t get over this chart. Absolute single best representation of how the company is executing. Think V02 max or resting heart rate - captures so much in a single picture. In fact if you had shown this to anyone at Opendoor 1.0, they would’ve said “no fucking way, the data’s wrong” If future cohorts look like this, $82 is wayyy too low

@operdoor2 @Opendoor The figures you mentioned are quite disappointed in fact right? I thought with the acquitsition pace (average 400+ weekly), opendoor will reach close to 1500 monthly sales by q2 ....

April Summary: @Opendoor ( $OPEN ) Key Metrics & Q2 Projections 🏠📊 ​April was a strong month for Opendoor. Here’s a breakdown of the latest data: ​Inventory : 811 new listings in April (New high for 2026). ​Sales Activity: 581 homes sold 716 currently pending. (1/6)

@Nbusiness1990 The outstanding number of shares was also like around 1/3 less

Think about this, $OPEN got to $35.88 under Carrie Wheeler... Imagine if they had Kaz back then? The $500/SP would be right now. Kaz has already built the company way better then It ever was and were just heading into summer.