@Pentosh1 You think that's going to keep working? It's pretty obvious at this point to buy peace talks and sell escalation talks.
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Clarke Wesley
84 posts
These yields are not even high
≈ nominal gdp growth would be a good starting point
Sonu Varghese@sonusvarghese
Looks like the bond market is reminding everyone that the Strait remains closed* 2y yields: 4.05 10y: 4.54 30y: 5.09 * And China isn’t going to do anything to help open it up
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@KrownCryptoCave @AndrewCFollett @grok They need to spend that much if not more. Are you aware of The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel?
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@AndrewCFollett @grok is this chart accurate? 47% for social welfare seems too crazy to be true. if it is true then please compare and contract the amount in percentage terms spent on social welfare between the US and actual socialist states
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Defense is 8% of US government spending.
Welfare is 47%!
Chris Freiman@cafreiman
Total education spending in the US exceeds defense spending—people dramatically overestimate how much is spent on defense.
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@fejau_inc @dampedspring Ever read The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel?
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I think it’s totally plausible that’s where we’re headed I’m just not convinced these tweets are out of the ordinary enough to prove that quite yet basically
I also don’t know how to measure the threshold of when I’m convinced we’ve moved from A to B
Which kinda circles back to my point of these things being hard to discuss because they are inherently abstract
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@KrownCryptoCave @grok @CryptoISFreedom @protocol_fx Interestingly the opposite is occurring with funds like uso at the moment. Because the oil market is in extreme backwardation, the fund is basically forced to sell high and buy low as they roll contracts over.
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@grok @CryptoISFreedom @protocol_fx interesting, so regardless of the marketing angle it will still experience volatility decay and thus be a suboptimal choice long term mathematically speaking
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@LynAldenContact @MrV_777 What do you think about Peter Turchins work, as well as The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel, given the current state of the U.S.?
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Mortgage debt is larger than all the rest of those combined, which is why mortgages blowing up in 2008 was fatal to the banking system, and why substantial weakness in other non-mortgage debts is generally not.
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades
The blue line is getting the attention on this chart but the key takeaway is that all of credit cards, auto loans, and student loan delinquencies are at or near their highest levels ever. Only home loans are doing ok, but their market is on multi year life support demand wise.
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@Valarukar @LukeGromen @FiscalDominanc Silver to gold to whatever you like at that point. BTC and/or other hard-adjacent assets. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
GIF
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Yes
Because 2% real rates (let alone 3% real) put the US, UK, & parts of EU into “print or default on your sovereign debt” territory remarkably quickly (b/c that's roughly where interest + entitlements go > receipts), & nothing’s more bullish for gold than sovereign default risk
Silkwood Capital@EZsilkwood
@LukeGromen @RPMComo @ttmygh @CultishCreative @SantiagoAuFund You really want to be in gold at 3% real?
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@LukeGromen @FiscalDominanc Yep. The "easiest" trade is gold, then rotate to bitcoin.
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@FiscalDominanc In theory.
Question is does it force the unwind of the far bigger dilution of gold first (i.e., 10-100x paper gold to physical gets unwound first)
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@LukeGromen @JacobShap Have you ever read The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel? Seems more and more relevant.
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Wow this was a fascinating podcast
Demetri Kofinas@kofinas
I'm joined by @WillManidis to discuss the collapse of secular institutional legitimacy, the reassertion of divine faith and political violence as organizing forces, and what AI-generated wealth concentration means for the economy and the social contract. hiddenforces.io/podcasts/god-a…
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@Rory_Johnston Fair enough, but Japan has explicitly said they will, and you're naive if you think they will tell you while they're doing it.
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We need more specific language when talking about "market manipulation," which like most things is a spectrum.
Unprecedented Trump/White House jawboning and verbal interventions: obviously happening, manipulative in that they successfully moves markets, but fair game (if irresponsible) and not what most people mean when they say "manipulation"
Direct intervention by Treasury/etc (e.g., explicitly shorting futures):
lots of accusations, I've seen no proof, whole different ballgame with grave short- and long-term consequences, and imho there are far simpler explanations for crude price action than that.
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@LukeGromen @morganhousel Have you seen the Danish study showing an increase in wealth for men results in an increase in fertility, while an increase in wealth for women lowers their fertility? Yeah...
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@morganhousel This chart + the fact that the cost of raising a child to age 18 in the US has been rising at a multiple of reported CPI and US median wage growth for years likely explain much of it.
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I don't fully buy the idea that living in an age of uncertainty is what's driving the decline in fertility.
The Baby Boom took place when your kids had to practice duck-and-cover drills at school to prepare for what was seen as the inevitable nuclear apocalypse.
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$SOL
Think its probably wise to have a bearish bias between here and $210 and then aggressively flip if SOL manages to flip the $210 resistance
Bull posted the range low, bear posting here at range high
Invalidation if SOL flips resistances and shows me it wants more
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Cleveland FTW; cheap cost of living v. elsewhere in US; easy to go anywhere due to overbuilt infrastructure; world class HC, arts, and sports (for 2 of 3 major sports at least); sane politics; nice people.
The US Rust Belt remains my favorite Emerging Market.
@EPBResearch
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@KrownCryptoCave @Polymarket Starts at the top, not the poor people stealing soda at the bottom.
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JUST IN: McDonald’s to eliminate self-serve soda stations nationwide by 2032, citing “changing consumer habits”
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@Rory_Johnston Plus you need to refill the strategic reserves.
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We're actually really going to *need* a supply glut after this end to fill in the hole left by Hormuz.
Minimum 1 billion barrels lost, requires an *annual* surplus of 2.7 MMbpd to recover.
And that assumes Hormuz reopens today, which it isn't so it'll be bigger.
400 million more barrels per month.
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@WarrenPies @fejau_inc The people most ai pilled that are dismissive of the SOH closure very clearly don't give a fuck about the rest of humanity as long as they are making money.
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It's interesting how the people most worried about the SOH/energy crisis are also most skeptical of AI.
On the other hand, the most AI-pilled are dismissive of the SOH.
It's all a big Rorschach test...
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Here's every time the tech sector had a +20% monthly total return at an all-time high.
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@lBattleRhino @CL207 I mean, btc is fundamentally different than everything else you listed. I understand it doesn't behave that way yet, but that is the value proposition still.
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I keep seeing people say man everyone is apathetic we gonna run the bull back so hard time to lock in. Are none of you concerned eth / sol barely eclipsed prev cycle aths, btc clearly demonstrating diminishing returns cycle over cycle with saylor holding inordinate amount, quantum threat, only interesting narratives exist in tradfi etc etc
Could go on, same reasons i spoke about when derisking last year. Serious question, does none of this concern you when you’re blindly parroting that the next cycle is gonna make ppl “so fkn rich”. Sure there’s always asymmetric opps that come up to make money on but holding spot majors hasnt felt worthwhile for a long ass time.
Curious on thoughts from people still bullish the space going forward
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