DeepValue

$NAUT $0.7 is potentially on the verge of a break out and quite possibly a 5x from here IF no new major tech issues. Mgmt has delayed launch a few times due to tech challenges. Based on resent updates, seems like they have gotten around those. CEO has been buying. MCap ~90M

$NAUT Nice move up. Recent investor calls and Baylor early access project confidence in tech and the commercialization plans. While 5x from this last post, i added some more around 2.5 but not adding more in to almost 4.

If nobody goes to jail for this, we've entered the 'every man for himself' stage of empire decline.

$NAUT at $3.5 is already 5x. They are making great progress. Will likely raise a little (hopefully less the 7% MCap) around 5 or higher and they should.

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

@Biohazard3737 So far IG is showing down 0.5% on Dow futures. Let's see how it unfolds. Unless any specific DJT post, we will likely be down more than 0.5% by the time we open.

What just happened? At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran. Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low. Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran. Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news. By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap. Markets are now closed until Monday.

@DueDoctor The ceo posting a picture of their nvidia gpu pallet was a give away. Sold my stock the same day.

In 5 years we will look back at shorting the AI pretenders as one of the easiest layups of all time $RXRX

@PepInvestStocks @CaesarCapitalz $NAUT Owned for quite some time. Bought more recently around 2.5, even though my average is under $1. Worth at least $2B once the tech continues to scale and deliver. $OLNK is an comparable, even though $NAUT beats the tech and could be valued more. hopefull over $5 by EOY.

@CaesarCapitalz Yes, huge upside potential $NAUT

7 stocks I’m watching: 1) $TE - T1 Energy 2) $IBRX - ImmunityBio 3) $AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics 4) $OSS - One Stop Systems 5) $TEM - Tempus AI 6) $ABCL - AbCellera Biologics 7) $AXTI - AXT Which one of these stocks would you buy?

@BioSignal $rpid is helping car-t manufacturers by automatingand accelerating part of the quality testing. I yhnk 19 of top 20 bio pharma uses $rpid

Legend Biotech ($LEGN) just proved that CAR-T isn't just a scientific marvel—it's a massive business. While the market obsessed over manufacturing bottlenecks, Legend quietly scaled Carvykti to $1.9B in annual sales, achieving a 10,000-patient milestone and single-product profitability. Everyone is watching the old guard ($BMY). But Legend just posted a $555M single-quarter print, growing revenue by over 60% YoY. More importantly, they’ve transitioned from a "one-hit wonder" to a platform company, dosing their first patient with an In Vivo CAR-T and advancing allogeneic assets. Legend is effectively de-risking the entire cell therapy sector by proving operational profitability is possible by 2026. This is the new standard for cell therapy commercialization. $LEGN $JNJ $BMY $GILD $XBI $IBB

@KlendathuCap Welcome! Would love to get your perspective once you'd had a chance to look.

@ValueDig I haven’t looked at it many months. I guess ill have to take a look now. Thanks man.

If $NAUT can get its platform to work, it's worth tens of billions. The problem is that I have no idea if they can pull it off, and there is not a lot of evidence to support their ability to do so.

Wow Vinay Prasad goneskiii finally. According to @wsj

@alixpasquet Here's @johnarnold post about China. Great insights indeed. Hopefully saved you 5-10 mins of searching. You are welcome! x.com/johnarnold/sta…

Years ago, as a youngin, a mentor of mine told me that Goldman Sachs had a concept called "the person vs the seat". He explained it: if you look at a person and you put him on a seat at your firm, is it the seat making the money or is it the individual? Think about one aspect of the seat, which is the deal flow. Is the flow coming to the seat because it is Goldman, or is it coming to the person? As human chimpanzees, we have a tendency to think we are the ones who are doing all the work and getting the job done (self attribution bias and other highly comical biases), but very often, we are just sitting in a really good seat. What if we leave? Will we still have all that flow? Could we even replicate the flow? How about the other benefits of the seat? I think there are several lessons to this. a) make the seat very powerful, as @johnarnold explains in a part of the pod below. What are the conditions you can create at the seat level to make it powerful? b) the persons who are valuable are the ones who augment and preferably multiply the value of the seat. Those are the ones that you make a partner. c) The "seat" is the reason why if a person leaves a firm, bc he has done well there and then goes to the next shop and does not have the same performance. Very common. By the way, on John Arnold. a) John just went to China, and he shared on X a recap of his trip. Must read. It complements very well the pod that @bgurley did with @altcap on China. (Go read Gurley's book!) John is on the board of META now and check out how good the board is. Would love to be a fly on the wall on this one. Must be business learning on steroids. b) An interesting event in market history is Centaurus' run-in with Amaranth. Worth taking a look at that. c) his other pods are also worth a listen. Im consistently amazed at the quality of @patrick_oshag pods and also his questions. Crazy that we have access to these now. When I was starting out, Id have paid a small fortune to listen to this.

Chamath Palihapitiya: Capital Loss as a Service.

@CloisterRes Yes, maasive 1B spend, about as muchas current cash. Might need to raise more in 6 months. $cytk is my top 5 positions

Anyone know why $CYTK blowing up after earnings? Have a tiny position and been thinking about adding. Seems way too early in the launch to know either way, and big catalyst coming with the Q2 P3 readout.

@robertcoffin3 @matthewherper Unfortunately, the only likely reason for that is that the actual data looks worse that what they note in the PR. $GRAL

1. I would like to see the actual data - for such a company-critical study, really the full data should have been provided with the PR, not just hard to interpret general statements 2. I will still continue to get the Galleri test anyway - I would much prefer to be diagnosed earlier rather than later for any type of cancer, even without evidence of mortality benefit - no-one wants to get to or have to be treated for Stage IV

A key study of $GRAL's Galleri test in the UK failed to reach its primary endpoint, but showed benefits on a secondary endpoint. Tell me what you all think. investors.grail.com/news-releases/…

@zequalizer 💯 totally expecting ARKG to load up today.

@ValueDig Enough cash through 2030 but trial miss is big setback for TAM. Cathie will provide exit liquidity tomorrow

$GRAL Should have been a contra indicator. I guess will hold my $GRAL. My buys have been under 20, but this still hurts.

@JaredSleeper Jared, Love this series. Great analysis.

Every day for the next long while, I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date, top startups, key quotes from earnings calls, etc. Day twelve, Blackline: Peak share price: $148.51 (Feb 5, 2021) Share price today: $38.61 (-74%) EV today: $2.6bn ARR today: $693m (+7.5% Y/y) NRR: 105% EV/ARR: 3.8x GAAP Operating Margin: 3.7% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 96x Headcount: 2,068 (+4% Y/y) What it does: Blackline sells financial close management software that helps accountants and audit teams consolidate and manage complex ledgers and accounting operations. It is a layer on top of Oracle/SAP ERPs that provides advanced functionality, compliance features, etc. AI bear case: Blackline's business addresses a deterministic cost-center (accounting) that can credibly be compressed with AI agents. Of all deterministic business functions, accounting is one of the most exposed to AI disruption- it isn't hard (or at least many investors are able) to imagine a world in which many fewer accountants exist. AI bull case: AI still hallucinates and may not prove well-suited for mission-critical deterministic workflows near term, giving Blackline time to adapt and innovate. As such, the bull case is that AI will "pass Blackline by" for some time. AI traction: Blackline is opting to bundle AI into its platform offering rather than sell it as a separate SKU: "In the fourth quarter, we signed multiple large platform deals, driving average new enterprise deal sizes up 41%. Nearly every one of these deals focused on how customers can leverage our Verity AI offerings." Adjacent AI-native startup summary: Rillet (AI ERP) - 107 employees, +220% Y/y Numeric (AI Close Management)- 92 employees, +80% Y/y Campfire (AI ERP) - 79 employees, +500% Y/y Maxima (AI Close Management)- 75 employees, +477% Y/y Dual Entry (AI ERP) - 45 employees, +100% Y/y Management Quotes: "In the office of the CFO, black box AI is a nonstarter, trust, transparency and auditability are paramount. Our entire platform was built from the ground up to be a system of record with a complete unbroken audit trail." "We offer a managed digital workforce via our Verity agents, which are prepackaged, pretrained and fully auditable with clear chain of thought. We have architected our platform so that every action the AI takes leaves a digital footprint identical to a human user. This directly addresses the single biggest barrier to AI adoption in finance, the trust gap." "We are also seeing growing adoption of our AI with customer usage of our AI capabilities more than doubling quarter-over-quarter with nearly 20% of all customers now using at least some form of our AI features. We have an accelerating product cycle this year with an emphasis on launching and monetizing our Verity AI agents, a key part of our platform strategy." "First is Verity Prepare. This is our AI-powered reconciliation agent that we previewed in Q4 and is now in early access for our platform customers. Several large enterprise customers are already using it, with even more planning to adopt this in Q1. Customers can elevate their users from preparers to reviewers, offloading repetitive work and freeing accountants to focus on high judgment analysis. This helps to bridge the talent gap and allows customers to handle growing complexity without adding headcount." "Next is Verity Collect. Planned for Q2, this agent automates many of the manual tasks of the collections process like predicting payment behaviors and autonomous dunning. The excitement from our partner ecosystem is notable as this targets high-volume repetitive work where agents thrive, directly impacting working capital. And finally, Verity Accruals. This agent targets high judgment areas within the accruals process. Unlike standard rules-based automation, this agent interprets context to manage complex estimates. We are actively selling this today and it pairs perfectly with our existing journal solutions to drive automation into the last mile of the close." Additional Commentary: With net retention ticking up last quarter, there's certainly limited evidence of AI-driven disruption to Blackline today and it does seem as if further model improvement may be required to cause disruption for a field as cautious/determism-wedded as accounting. The burst of AI native startups around it (both ERP and close management) suggests both opportunities and threats in this space. That said, any investor who truly believes white-collar work will be disrupted in the future will certainly think that about accounting, creating a wall of worry that seems unlikely to dissipate unless Blackline proves it is profiting from that (again, not yet underway) trend.