Zack197
4.3K posts
A Qatar-affiliated LNG carrier loaded at Ras Laffan earlier this month is now navigating the Iran-approved northern route near Qeshm & Larak Islands according to MarineTraffic data.
If the vessel makes it through, it would be Qatar's first known LNG export via the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the war in February.
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@DavidBnClark @RKelanic That's gona take several years and those pipes will probably be in range of Iranian missles and drones.
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@RKelanic Iran weaponizing the strait of Hormuz is a tactic with diminishing returns. The more they do it, the quicker the GCCs will construct alternative infrastructure to get their products out.
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Unfortunately, there's not much the U.S. can do to stop Iran's leverage over Hormuz, which boils down to geography + guerrilla tactics.
Iran can cheaply menace Hormuz indefinitely. Reopening it is expensive and hard.
This is what Trump's foolish war has created.
Department of State@StateDept
SECRETARY RUBIO: Iran is trying to establish some agency that’s going to control traffic in the Strait. That would be very problematic. The normalizing of their control of international waterways is both illegal and absolutely unacceptable.
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@John_Hudson @acoyne It’s basically a decentralized country. They’ve managed to make it work under sanctions.
Strait closure will hurt others before it hurts Iran
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SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse
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@mavsmarie Don't waste your time. These people are fueled by hatred rooted in insecurity.
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Did you know Kyrie Irving, who is in your profile picture, practices the Islamic religion?
Mavilier@mavilier
@mavsmarie How embarrassing for you. Advocating for a group who thinks women are sub human. Have your read the Quran? Do you know anything about sharia law? Please educate yourself it’s EMBARRASSING
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MORE INFO: According to Axios, Washington and Tehran are now closer to a deal than at any point since the war begun.
Key elements under discussion:
• A phased rollback of both the U.S. and Iranian naval restrictions during negotiations
• Gradual sanctions relief from the U.S., alongside the release of tens of billions in frozen Iranian funds
• A long term freeze on Iranian uranium enrichment, reportedly between 12 and 15 years, with automatic extensions if Tehran violates the terms
• Iran potentially agreeing to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country
• The White House is waiting for Iran’s formal response on several core issues within the next 48 hours
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Axios report: The White House is said to be close to a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war and launch nuclear talks, with Tehran expected to respond within 48 hours.
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The reason the Persian Islamic regime is still standing and believes it can take on the war with America is because it still has support inside Iran.
They know the only way their government collapses is if people rise against it from within.
But even after being severely weakened by attacks from Israel and the U.S., many Persians are still rallying behind their regime.
Why?
Because they would rather keep their brutal mullahs in power than allow what they see as “foreign” interference from America and Israel.
RT@RT_com
Tehran crowds echo historic 'DEATH BEFORE HUMILIATION' chant as pro-government demonstrations continue for a 64th consecutive night
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@Herewar66545077 @tsumekwa @JasonMBrodsky These people are clowns they don't understand middle eastern culture. These people would rather eat grass then give up their religion, dignity or land. Iran even more so because of it's 6000 year history. The only way to beat iran is to get the people to overthrow it.
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@Zack19710 @tsumekwa @JasonMBrodsky Agree on both your contentions. In the case of Iran there have also been very narrow calculations built around Iranian oil production and storage capacity. Precise mathematical predictions obviously have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
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"The president wants action. He doesn't want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal," a senior U.S. official told Axios."
"Trump was presented with a plan on Thursday night to send naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to open it by force. At the last minute, he opted for a more cautious approach, at least initially."
A source close to the president described this as the "beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians."
"It's either we're looking at the real contours of an achievable deal soon, or he's going to bomb the hell out of them," the senior official said.
axios.com/2026/05/04/tru…
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@Herewar66545077 @tsumekwa @JasonMBrodsky The houtis are another example. Arab coalitions backed by the U.S and Europe couldn't get rid of them.
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@Herewar66545077 @tsumekwa @JasonMBrodsky Saddam hussein in the 90s. There was crippling sanctions and even an international naval blockade and interdiction. Yet it failed to topple saddam or extract concessions from him until the U.S finally invaded in 2002.
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@yabadoa @JewishWarrior13 Yeah you are correct I just don't see Israel allowing such a deal.
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@Zack19710 @JewishWarrior13 True but both sides can compromise a bit and then we reach a deal without having to continue the blockade and strait closure
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⭕️ To summarize the proposal: Iran submitted a proposal for the surrender of THE US TO IRAN...It's unbelievable that they even have the nerve to submit something like that.
Raylan Givens@JewishWarrior13
🚨Al-Jazeera published details from the revised proposal Iran submitted to the US: in the first stage, the aim is to turn the ceasefire into a full end to the war within 30 days, alongside establishing an international monitoring mechanism and mutual commitment by Iran and the US to avoid attacks, including by allies and Israel
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@yabadoa @JewishWarrior13 But I thought Trump wanted no enrichment at all and the dismantling of nuclear facilities?
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@Zack19710 @JewishWarrior13 You are missing the zero storage part:
The JCPOA allowed Iran to maintain a stockpile of 300kg of enriched uranium. A "zero-storage principle" means Iran could enrich uranium but would have to export or consume it immediately, preventing them from building a "breakout" reserve.
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@yabadoa @JewishWarrior13 Lol that's the same as the JCPOA that Trump ripped up. Under that agreement they were also allowed 3% enrichment.
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I disagree, Iran is showing they will compromise, that the blockade is pushing them to compromise. In their latest proposal they agree to limit enrichment to 3.6 percent in accordance with the "zero-storage principle". This means Iran will give up on their stockpile (i.e. zero-storage). Big shift.
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@Melodi_ort @KenRoth Yeah I doubt that. No Inspectors have gone in for a while. They have a lot of secret facilities. That's why theU.s wants them to hand over the enriched Uranium. I wouldn't be surprised if they had a rudimentary nuclear device already.
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Today, Iran has a total of 11 tons of uranium, at various enrichment levels. "With further purification, that is enough to build up to 100 nuclear weapons....Virtually all of that cache accumulated in the years after Trump abandoned the Obama-era deal.” trib.al/GBy8nzC
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@yorel480 @bonchieredstate America is like a dog if you run away it will chase after you but if you fight it will stick its tail between its legs and go away. Libya gave up its nukes to the U.S and it was later overthrown.
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@bonchieredstate Yeah. I’m afraid this is going to have to include ground troops. They’re too intransigent and beholden to their radical ideology/eschatology. They would rather die fighting the great satan rather than give up and help their people.
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This is why Trump can’t just keep sitting on this and needs to make a decision on whether to restart hostilities. The longer we wait, the worse the costs get.
Iran is not going to collapse from the blockade. It’ll inconvenience the regime, but it won’t defeat them.
ChrisO_wiki@ChrisO_wiki
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear."
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@OldManJade @bonchieredstate Congratulations you are one of the few rational people here
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@bonchieredstate Unless the US plans on a total war strategy similar to that against Germany and Japan during WWII, it's unlikely the resumption of hostilities at the previous tempo will force Iranian capitulation. See: Iran-Iraq War. Those fuckers can take a punch and then some.
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@realitywont @bonchieredstate Blockade didn't work in Iraq in the 90s u really think it will work in Iran?
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@bonchieredstate I feel like drying up all of their funding will lead to some sort of change in Iran. Might not be good change but there will be change.
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Reuters: Iran’s proposal clashes with U.S. demands, as Tehran wants to delay nuclear talks while Washington insists Iran first give up its 400 kg+ of highly enriched uranium to end the war. Iran instead prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing broader issues before nuclear negotiations.
The 14 point proposal includes lifting the blockade and sanctions, removing U.S. forces from the region, releasing frozen assets, compensation payments, ending fighting across all fronts including Lebanon, and creating a new mechanism for the strait. Iran frames delaying nuclear talks as a way to ease negotiations, while the U.S. faces pressure as the strait disruption impacts about 20% of global oil and gas flows and drives up prices.
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@DrEliDavid Iran likes to talk tough but this war has shown they can’t be steamrolled in a mater of weeks. Only reason they have power is because we allow it.
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Iran's original proposal: "The war ends, US leaves, we control Hormuz, we don't give up uranium enrichment"
Iran's new proposal: "We don't give up uranium enrichment, we control Hormuz, US leaves, the war ends."
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