ZEIT
305 posts
@ZEITFinance
Zeit turns open interest in reality into composable financial capital.
The Trillion dollar usecase for Prediction Makerts is not gambling. It's Parametric Insurance. gambling is a small market ($600B), investors did not value Polymarket and Kalshi at $20B each because they hope to capture the gambling market. The real big fish they are chasing is the insurance market ($8T). They are betting of a future where event contracts replace the traditional Indemnity Insurance model In the indemnity insurance model has 3 major flaws : 1 - Does not scale An adjuster must inspect every claim, assess the damages and if it is covered or not. This incurs additional costs that will in the end be paid by the consumer. If these costs are greater than the expected profit for a given category, there simply won't be an insurance market for it. 2 - Slow If your house burned to the ground, you need the money now, not in 6 months. Good luck explaining that to the adjuster that will want every receipt for every piece of furniture in your living room 3 - Adversarial The insurance provider who has every incentive to deny your claim since the payout comes out of their pocket. Unfortunately the judge (the adjuster) also works for them, and will find every reason to deny you a payout There are already a few categories where Parametric insurance (event contracts) is already the dominant option : - Fire insurance - Extreme weather events - Political risk (for example if a bill gets passed that would ruin your business) - War insurance (try to find a traditional company that will insure your house in Donetsk or Tehran) @Polymarket and @Kalshi investors are betting that this market will keep expanding and that they will be the ones to capture it It's the real play behind Prediction Markets. Of course there is still regulatory risk, but that was also the case for Bitcoin in 2013. Risk = Profit Take some risks and find a way to invest in Prediction Markets before everyone realizes what is up
Another extremely free bond Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through the Strai of Hormuz by -> +6% in 3 days 💸 Odds of a peace deal on the same deadline are at 7.5% which is almost equivalent, but if you look at the rules they really are not. Two reasons : 1 - Iran must not charge fee or require their permission or dictate conditions, like lanes of passage 2 - Iran must make the announcement, Trump saying it will not qualify But the position of Iran on this matter is clear. They will "open" the strait, meaning the will let ships from US/Israel aligned countries pass through, but they still intend to charge fees and control the traffic. Here is a video by Iran's Foreign Ministry clarifying it after Trump's tweet that the strait will be open. The june deadline is also interesting but it's at 25% and i expect it to pop off if the MoU is signed, which is when i will buy NO on it.
ZEIT is transforming how we bet on the future. We are the first platform built to tokenize and issue Investable Worldviews and Prediction Market ETFs. Tokenized Worldviews Opening soon to everyone.
prediction market indices feel inevitable not the obvious binary markets,but actual baskets of reality: an ai progress index, a geopolitical risk index, an election chaos index, a fed panic index, a crypto regulation index, a consumer sentiment index, a war escalation index, a startup liquidity index the interesting part of prediction markets was never just betting on isolated events it’s that they can compress messy, hard-to-measure worldviews into live prices once enough liquid markets exist, someone is going to bundle them into clean indices and at that point, you’re no longer trading individual questions, you’re trading the state of the world that matters because investors, founders, policymakers, and even ordinary people get a new way to hedge and understand what the market thinks is happening in real time feels like one of the most underexplored directions in crypto
ZEIT is transforming how we bet on the future. We are the first platform built to tokenize and issue Investable Worldviews and Prediction Market ETFs. Tokenized Worldviews Opening soon to everyone.
prediction market indices feel inevitable not the obvious binary markets,but actual baskets of reality: an ai progress index, a geopolitical risk index, an election chaos index, a fed panic index, a crypto regulation index, a consumer sentiment index, a war escalation index, a startup liquidity index the interesting part of prediction markets was never just betting on isolated events it’s that they can compress messy, hard-to-measure worldviews into live prices once enough liquid markets exist, someone is going to bundle them into clean indices and at that point, you’re no longer trading individual questions, you’re trading the state of the world that matters because investors, founders, policymakers, and even ordinary people get a new way to hedge and understand what the market thinks is happening in real time feels like one of the most underexplored directions in crypto
🚨 A new UMA scam attempt is taking place 🚨 UMArocks whales are trying to rug the "Will Iran agree to end Uranium enrichment" market In the last days since the MoU has been leaked, the have been accumulating massive amounts of YES shares. Their plan is to force resolution to yes based on a frivolous interpretation of the MoU text, as soon as it's signed. Point 9 of the MoU says : "Pending the final deal. The Islamic republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of it's nuclear program" They want to pass it off as saying Iran has agreed to end enrichment during the negociations. This is ridiculous. Iran is currently : - enriching at 3.67% for nuclear reactors - enriching at 20% for medical isotopes - enriching at 60% for potential weapons This is the status quo. This is the entire reason there is a war. If the current "status quo" is that Iran does not enrich Uranium as part of it's nuclear program then why is the previous point mentioning negotiations on Iran's nuclear enrichment ? Point 9 even says that *the US and Iran* must both maintain the status quo, which is understood as "the US must not impose additional sanctions". No one in their right mind would think it implies that the US has agreed to end all sanctions during the talks It's obvious to any honest observer that "maintaining the status quo" means not expending their nuclear program, for example, not to start enriching uranium to 90% during the talks. But it is exactly why they are betting against it. They know that traders will fill their orders. As soon as the deal is signed, they will propose using their Whitelisted wallets and use their control of UMA to pass their made up resolution. If a consensus of credible reporting announces that Iran agreed to pause all uranium enrichment during the talks, then let it resolve to YES, but it is not what is happening there. @Polymarket must issue a preventative clarification saying that this alone will not suffice for resolution or a ton of traders will get burned before they step in @shayne_coplan @mustafap0ly
