FatMbappe

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FatMbappe

FatMbappe

@TheFatMbappe

Fat bets, fatter profits - professional sports bettor - Gambling sports on Prediction Markets

Virage Auteuil Katılım Eylül 2018
4.1K Takip Edilen21.8K Takipçiler
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
FatMbappe is going institutional 🏆 My $FAV8 World Cup Vault is live on @ZeitFinance. We’re buying equal YES shares across the top 8 World Cup favorites. Current basket: ~81¢. Payout if one of them wins: $1. Target gross upside: ~23.5% before fees. 🧵🧵🧵
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kizzito.eth
kizzito.eth@pakaqe·
@Autonomous_Chad You’re dumb because they bet 1m from wen the first game started and you’ll even be more stupid to think the whole cup is scripted
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
Please stop spamming my TL with slop like "ThiS trader lost $5M on a single bet 😱😡🥵 !!?!?" These are not a traders, these are Sports Syndicate. Sports Syndicates are like sports betting investment funds. Here is how they operate : > develop a reliable edge (insider info on injuries, better weather models, better fatigue analysis...) > pool money from large investors, often from countries where gambling is banned (🇨🇳) > invest the money in bets following their strategy > reinvest proceeds on winning bets > investors withdraw any time they want and keep the profits, while the Syndicate takes a comission. This is the secret behind all the big accounts with 1 or 2 prediction betting millions on a single team or match. Sports Syndicates split their bet across multiple accounts that they cycle constantly so it's harder for observers to gain insight into their portfolios and strategy. If you see these signs : - Huge bets on a single market - only sports - fresh account - empty profile Then you are almost always looking at a Sports Syndicate burner account. this fresh profile who bet $5M on Argentina is a perfect example
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i like food
i like food@messedupfoods·
this is insane
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
@Pure_lmao There is actually just one datafeed provider that matters
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
@Autonomous_Chad A couple of years ago, I made some bets on sports, giving a guy some chips I got from playing blackjack at the Venetian casino in Macau.
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Ivan
Ivan@allquantor·
OP is dead on. People see a $5M bet slip and picture a drunk billionaire rage-betting. In reality, it’s a syndicate operating like a quant hedge fund for sports. The China side of this is crazy. You can't just wire $5M out of the mainland to a sportsbook. Instead, a guy walks into a Guangzhou pawn shop and drops a duffel bag of physical gold bars. The exact second it hits the counter, a shadow broker in Manila credits a burner wallet with $5M in USDT. Before the crackdowns, Macau "junket kings" ran the board. A guy named Alvin Chau processed $105 BILLION in shadow bets to help mainland VIPs bypass capital controls. He’s doing 18 years in prison now. Even the legal ones are insane. Starlizard in London runs exactly like an investment bank. Hundreds of quants modeling stuff like player sleep cycles. The founder made so much money doing it he literally bought a Premier League team (Brighton).
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Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad

Please stop spamming my TL with slop like "ThiS trader lost $5M on a single bet 😱😡🥵 !!?!?" These are not a traders, these are Sports Syndicate. Sports Syndicates are like sports betting investment funds. Here is how they operate : > develop a reliable edge (insider info on injuries, better weather models, better fatigue analysis...) > pool money from large investors, often from countries where gambling is banned (🇨🇳) > invest the money in bets following their strategy > reinvest proceeds on winning bets > investors withdraw any time they want and keep the profits, while the Syndicate takes a comission. This is the secret behind all the big accounts with 1 or 2 prediction betting millions on a single team or match. Sports Syndicates split their bet across multiple accounts that they cycle constantly so it's harder for observers to gain insight into their portfolios and strategy. If you see these signs : - Huge bets on a single market - only sports - fresh account - empty profile Then you are almost always looking at a Sports Syndicate burner account. this fresh profile who bet $5M on Argentina is a perfect example

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Ivan
Ivan@allquantor·
OpenAI and Anthropic have absolutely 0 moat. Their inevitable slowdown is the ultimate liquidity injection crypto has been waiting for. they aren't going to literal zero, but they're basically destined to become the next oracle, grinding with 100s of sales reps to license models to B2Bs at a fraction of today's valuations. an IPO is a pipe dream. after the spacex extraction, there’s just not enough liquidity. the longer they wait, the harder it gets to keep the charade alive and raise more cash. when the AI bubble pops, that liquidity rotates straight back into crypto. gambling is AI-resistant, it’s only growing, and tokenized agentic payments are going to run the future. future is bright bros. stay strong.
Arena.ai@arena

Big news: Kimi-K3 by @Kimi_Moonshot is now #1 in the Frontend Code Arena with 1679 pts, surpassing Claude Fable 5. This is a 17-place jump from Kimi-k2.6 (#18 -> #1). In Frontend, Kimi-K3 ranked #1 in 6 of 7 domains: Brand & Marketing, Reference-Based Design, Data & Analytics, Consumer Product, Simulations, and Content Creation Tools, landing #2 only in Gaming behind Fable 5. The full model weights will be released by July 27. Congrats to the @Kimi_Moonshot team on this major milestone!

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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
@allquantor True but what's the ticker ? It probably won't be $BTC, stablecoin will grow but you can't really invest in that. Where do i put the money ?
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is already dead. Their Word Cup champion market made a pitiful 0.69% of Polymarket's volume World Cup Winner (Polymarket) -> $4.26B volume World Cup Winner (Kalshi) -> $1.2B volume World Cup Winner (Hyperliquid) -> $29M volume ... This is not what we expected from the "Polymarket Killer". And this looks even worse when you consider that @polymarket and @kalshi both list thousands of markets while HIP-4 lists only 10 (ten). Yet they can't even scratch 1% marketshare on the few markets that they have This looks extremely bearish for their platform. They may already have missed their critical take off opportunity with the World Cup. They absolutely need to fix these 3 flaws if they want to survive : 1 - Prediction Market UI looks like trash (not retail friendly) 2 - Only validators can propose new markets 3 - No coherent liquidity incentive program if they don't do it quickly it will be @hyperliquidx first failed product since their launch
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
Argentina does it again !!! 🇦🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 0 - 1 : 74 mn🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1 - 1 : 82mn 🇦🇷 2 - 1 : 90+2mn 🇦🇷 Odds fell as low as 5% when Argentina was led 0 - 1 at 82 minutes True Messi believers walked away with a clean 20x tonight. The 2 assists were from him
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Internet Child
Internet Child@0xinternetchild·
Slop posters are being destroyed by the new Algorithm update. Niche quality content > Algo-slop now What changed : - Posts are much more likely to be shown to your mutuals (not just followers) - Higher priority to replies - lower (relative) priority for likes As a user, it means your "For you" feed will feel a lot more like your "Following" feed. As a creator it means 2 things : 1 - You posts are very likely to be seen by your core audience 2 - Your bangers are less likely to break containment and go viral So don't aim for global homepage virality anymore, it's now both more difficult and less necessary to achieve. Instead keep grinding quality posts in your domain of expertise, get new smart followers and you impressions should progressively go up. In prediction market terms it generally means -> Less insider-baiting with random PNL screenshots and big numbers -> More original stories and market analysis These seem like very good development for PM twitter, hope @nikitabier will maintain that cap
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
I'm actually making money of my vault whether France or Spain wins because they were part of my 8 initial picks, but it's nice to make extra money on the side app.zeit.finance/vault/vault_17…
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
The market is growing more retarded Odds of Spain winning against France are close to 30% 🇪🇸🇫🇷 This is insane ! Spain offense has been struggling for the whole tournament (they barely scored against Paraguay) France on the other hand has the best defense of the tournament with the lowest number of conceded goals. @polymarket resolves off the first 90mn, so this is either a draw or a french win.
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
@qwerty_ytrevvq Spain has 0 chance. Their offence is trash, they won't score a goal against the best defense of the tournament
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Qwerty 🧀
Qwerty 🧀@qwerty_ytrevvq·
The France vs Spain semifinal 🇫🇷🇪🇸 My favorite Spain made it to the semifinals. Let's see what happens today Who are you guys rooting for, fans / traders?
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FatMbappe
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe·
I started this World Cup with a simple thesis. "Fan bias makes small teams are overrated" I created an automated re-balancing portfolio of the top 8 favorite teams and plugged it into a @ZEITFinance vault. A month later and all teams that were not part of my selection have been eliminated ! I'm now guaranteed to exit this World Cup with +25~30% (depending on who exactly wins) with almost no risks. I hope you invested along, this was easy money
FatMbappe tweet media
FatMbappe@TheFatMbappe

FatMbappe is going institutional 🏆 My $FAV8 World Cup Vault is live on @ZeitFinance. We’re buying equal YES shares across the top 8 World Cup favorites. Current basket: ~81¢. Payout if one of them wins: $1. Target gross upside: ~23.5% before fees. 🧵🧵🧵

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