Archie

If you interested in $AAOI follow me. I know the future of $AAOI.

@cengotengo @bubbleboi And he will kiss the wall in Jerusalem

@bubbleboi a year later messi will become el presidente of argentina too

Game goes to penalties: 3-2 Argentina wins

Ah, $AAOI . What a journey it's been. Market cap: ~$8.2B Next-quarter guide: ~$189M (+25.1% QoQ, +83.5% YoY) My next-12M revenue estimate: $1.45–1.75B, 180–250% growth My exit margins: 35–38% adjusted gross, 20–25% adjusted operating Valuation: ~4.7–5.7x next-12M sales AAOI is probably the highest-upside setup in this group. It is also the one with the widest range of outcomes. Their exposure includes: > CATV infrastructure > 400G transceivers > 800G transceivers > 1.6T transceivers > Internal InP lasers > External laser modules for CPO The key thing to understand is how early the AI-optics ramp still is. 800G contributed only $4.6M in Q1. So the biggest near-term revenue engine is starting from almost nothing. AAOI expects 800G to ramp sharply through the rest of 2026, while 1.6T begins after qualification and becomes a much larger contributor in 2027. Combined 800G and 1.6T capacity is expected to increase from roughly 100,000 units per month exiting Q1 to more than 650,000 by year-end. That is a massive capacity increase in a very short period. Demand does appear to be there. Management says forecast demand for 800G and 1.6T exceeds production capacity through mid-2027, and AAOI has already received volume orders from major hyperscalers, including an initial 1.6T order. CATV also gives AAOI an important second engine. That business should generate more than $325M annually and helps fund the transition into AI optics while the newer data-center programs scale. The potential margin improvement is meaningful. Gross margin remains near 30% during the early ramp because of startup costs, lower utilization, and initial yields. If AAOI fills the new factories, improves yields, and increases internal laser content, I think adjusted gross margin can move toward 35–38%, with operating margin reaching 20–25%. But this is an extremely back-half-loaded model. To reach my next-12-month range, AAOI needs to average roughly $420–520M per quarter during the three quarters after the current $189M guide. That is the hardest revenue bridge in the group. The upside is obvious. If the ramp works, AAOI could become one of the fastest-growing optical suppliers while trading at one of the lowest multiples. The risks are equally obvious with qualifications, factory timing, yields, customer concentration, capex, ATM issuance, dilution, and any delay in 800G or 1.6T production. Every quarter from here is a capacity-to-revenue audit. The Q3 guide is everything. NFA

@__Con_ Capex will go crazy & the rest of the earnings as well 😎

Next week will either be a massive sell off, or a massive V shaped recovery. I think it's the second option...

@Para_Capital @RJCcapital @bubbleboi Because he says shit “for fun” all the time & also engagement

@RJCcapital @bubbleboi No this is why the knives are out. He says he sold everything and then contradicts himself the next moment saying he’s long Intel. x.com/para_capital/s…

I gotta respect bubble boi because the second you change your mind on fintwit the knives come out. People on here are legit crazy

@FinnStockinger Praying that we get saved

During this correction, I’ve been making a lot of jokes here. I know how the market works, and I knew a dip like this would happen sooner or later (though I was hoping for later, lol). That said, the fundamentals haven’t changed. AI hardware isn't a bubble like some claim - it’s a structural shift in the world as we know it, and we're still at the very beginning. I can joke around because I know this will pass and the market will eventually normalize. Besides, I multiplied my portfolio earlier this year, so even being 40% off ATH right now, I'm still sitting on solid gains. A lot of great companies are taking a heavy hit, but most are just back to May levels and still up over 100% YTD. This is why I stick to high-conviction plays. Even if this drawdown lasts another month or six, I hold quality companies with growing fundamentals and strong earnings. They will bounce back. I get that people who bought $SIVE at 100 SEK are hurting right now. I even saw a post from someone who bought in without any research, just because others recommended it. But this isn't just about $SIVE. It's a sector-wide sell-off, and quality companies are getting hit just as hard. The difference? Some will recover quickly, some slowly, and others may never get back to where they were. Consider it tuition paid to the market. To get to where I am today, I had to survive multiple corrections and lose my own money. I still make mistakes, but I aim to make fewer of them each time. A few key takeaways I’d offer to anyone managing a portfolio right now: > Cash is king: Treat cash as an active position to deploy during moments like this. > Don't chase: I shared dozens of stocks here that surged 100%, 200%, or 300%+ since February. By June, I was struggling to find new opportunities despite analyzing a dozen companies a week. That was my signal to step back and lock in profits. Thankfully, I sold some positions partially near ATHs, which helped a lot. > Don't buy the first dip: I bought back in too early this cycle, not expecting such deep cuts. That was a clear mistake on my part, and something I need to refine. I take significant risk in this game. I invest heavily in growth companies as part of my strategy. I just ask that everyone be fully aware of what they're doing and not blindly buy whatever stocks happen to be popular or trendy. How are you guys holding up? What’s your take?

@retard3dinvst0r @ClassWarefare Not yet. Earnings first

@ClassWarefare Should we just kill ourselves?

Need to reclaim 200 ema very fast or we are completely and utterly toast

@kpcrocket @salfunjazz Nice the buy high method , I use this as well

@salfunjazz I don't doubt that. But I rather add to winners.

$AAOI $SIVE extremely bearish chart. I mean really really bad. Glad that I cut loss early.

@tj05wed @TW_trades_ Imagine selling now

@TW_trades_ i’m bleeding bro are you still in

-13% on no news Terrible $AAOI

@AKS12377702 @LiebermanAustin Yeah 1 bad day in price action and this guy draws conclusions

@LiebermanAustin quite a dumb take with 71K followers. Unfollow please

$NBIS down while $MU is up. The Neo-cloud opportunity is over They were a temporary solution for hyper scalers to ramp up compute but it makes way more sense for them to build their own. So there will still be neoclouds but their market opportunity (and multiples) will be way lower than everyone got hyped about.

@HiCagr Haha they can barely hike or it will all come crashing down

Like I said, I highly doubt we see rate hikes this year. Honestly, could even see a cut.

@retard3dinvst0r 12%? That’s it? I’m not thankfull at all nor happy

$AAOI up 12% today !!!!

@retard3dinvst0r I refuse to clean myself or behave appropriately untill we see $200

We’re not out of the woods yet boys. This could still be a reverse jerusalem shuffle. We need to see a nice 4th Reich follow through boner candle with decent volume otherwise they will palestine drone strike us again.

@__Con_ Just $AAOI & $HIMS together are more than 60% of my port but I’m heavily regarded. No risk no lambo

Diversification is key. That's what we were taught in college. But it's not true (at least not fully). Let me explain what's better: Ok, don't diversify your positions in order to diversify. That's for sure. If you have a framework in which you rank companies, and one is clearly better than the other, don't split your cash 50/50 between the two in order to "diversify." But, if you find multiple sectors good, but don't know which one to go fully on, then I'd say: diversify Buy into multiple sectors. That's what I'm doing here, at least. I find a few industries to be of value: 1) AI enablers: $AAOI, $SIVE, $MU 2) AI beneficiaries: $ZETA, $RDDT, $SOFI 3) Energy: $QS, $SMR, $VST 4) Crypto: $SOL, $HYPE, $ZEC 5) Health: $VKTX, $ABCL, $HIMS 6) Space: $ASTS, $RKLB, $SPCX So why diversify through these? Because I don't know exactly when they'll run. Of course, I think they'll eventually run, and I can make logical guesses, but these are all probabilities. So for me, I'd rather have the ability to rotate from one industry that's already ran, to one that is going down (from pure human psychology). That's why I diversify the niches I invest in, not necessarily my positions. That's just my 2c. What do you guys think?

@Edge_Bolt @TW_trades_ Why so bearish…..

@TW_trades_ TW, I’ve done institutional grade research. I’m a little too bullish on AAOI. I expect +22% approximately after Q2 earnings.

$AAOI at $118 is very cheap Earnings report will come out with increased margins & higher projections Short sellers dragged us down the last few months and are waiting for an entry before the ramp up Don’t get panicked out of ur bags. This is a $500 stock next year

@daniel_koss @babyfolio @itsalasdairmann Do you have receipts for these claims?

Big personal announcement! @babyfolio, @itsalasdairmann and I are joining forces to build the best investor community on the internet: Edelbridge Alpha. We believe in one thing above all: performance. Ali: +320% YTD Baby: +270% YTD Me: +360% YTD and now +3,365% since Jan 2024 There is endless investing content online. Much of it is generic, consensus-driven, hard to act on, or AI-repackaged by people who never show their true results. Edelbridge Alpha is built to be the opposite: original alpha, actionable, short and specific posts, transparent numbers and accountability. What subscribers get: - High-conviction investment ideas - Actionable trade ideas - Full portfolio updates - Peer-reviewed deep dives - Financial models and price targets - Industry insights - Macro thoughts and analysis - Exclusive insights from executives at companies we follow Each of us writes with our own style, opinions, and approach. No committee takes! No hedged consensus "should, could, would, might". We share real price targets and our actual numeric assumptions! We'll be right or wrong and you can tell! :) And the three of us are only the founding contributors. We will selectively invite more high-performing investors and traders on X, many of whom you likely already follow ;) The bar: consistent performance, independent thinking, and original analysis that actually generates alpha. Paid subscribers will (next week) also get optional access to a private, actively moderated Discord to discuss the ideas together, red team them, openly discuss risks and build conviction or spot scary risks or when a thesis breaks. Spam, insults, and low-quality noise get removed instantly, even from paying members. The room stays high-signal. I started investing because I refused to watch inflation eat my savings, and it became an obsession because, like competitive gaming, there is an objective scorecard. But the messages from readers who paid off debt or started funding their kids' education made me realize this could be so much bigger. That's what I want to work on now! Link to the Edelbridge Alpha Substack is in my bio. Join us from day one!

@pocimont @CaesarCapitalz If earnings & guidance are stellar 200$ seems only reasonable

@CaesarCapitalz Target for aaoi if it starts to reverse?

I have a feeling that photonics stocks are forming a bottom. I’m bullish on $AAOI, $SIVE and $AEHR.

Well shit on my forehead and call me Hideki Matsui I can’t believe my own eyes $AAOI

@__Con_ @ak_dfranco Sorry for being 🐻

@fxck_trades @ak_dfranco That's it?

Most people don't have my opinion on $AAOI, $SIVE, $MU, and these AI stocks. They're either crazy bullish hoping for a "V" shape return to all time highs. Or, they're very bearish, saying the AI bubble is about to pop. I think we're going into more of a consolidation period. Where we more so accumulate before sending any higher. I know the fundamental people don't like TA, but look at what I'm seeing (I also wrote a long thesis straight before this post): We're in a classic accumulation period, after distrusting (while making classic LLs). Just my 2c on what happens next, but I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks such as $IREN, $ASYS, $OPTX, etc., to all send much higher after some consolidation. Don't get fudded out. Don't sell the bottom. Higher.

@ak_dfranco @__Con_ AAOI to 250 after earnings 😎😎😎

@__Con_ Ok let's speak after earnings on AAOI, ill bookmark this.