_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Personal Update: I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack! After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test. Our first edition is live! checkonchain.substack.com 🧵

@PeterSchiff @RonSwanonson Now use that logic to explain the remaining 17yrs of the competition.

@RonSwanonson Because gold rose so much before the war and Bitcoin fell.

If Bitcoin “isn’t a store of value”, then why is it outperforming gold during a war? I guess gold isn’t a store of value either… Who can explain?

@bramk Sentiment swings with every candle.

@_Checkmatey_ Haha no 😂

I am seeing A LOT of Bitcoin bottom calls?

@TXMCtrades @CryptoBullet1 Yes, you had to mail money in an envelope to Japan back in 2011. Folks are comparing that ancient market to today's multi-trillion $ one, and wondering why things look weird.

@_Checkmatey_ @CryptoBullet1 Indeed. Have felt since the cycle began that MVRV Zscore in its traditional construction would have weakened signal. Probably more suited to a rolling look back and stdev bands. Thankfully my quant employs those methods. His name is Checkmate

$BTC MVRV Z-Score No way $60k was the Bear Market bottom. MVRV hasn’t even dipped into the green bottoming zone yet! And in terms of timing, we still have 6 months of bear market left. 📉 Another major drop is inevitable, whether you like it or not

Bitcoin has spent weeks going nowhere, despite a wave of bearish headlines. In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ examines whether Bitcoin is approaching seller exhaustion, and what typically happens when markets run out of motivated sellers → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/seller-exhau… Some insights explored in the article: - Spot markets are shifting from aggressive selling to net buy-side pressure - Realised profits and losses are both declining - Revived supply has fallen back to 2022–23 levels

@Ole_Shen @CryptoBullet1 To my eye, looks like they include the irrelevant early years in their calculation, which mean's you're comparing the statistical deviations of a $1 Bitcoin to a $100,000 Bitcoin. Horizontal levels make no sense in that setup.

@_Checkmatey_ @CryptoBullet1 In which way? You mean it comes off as time passes due to the mode of calculation ? If that would be the case then why did it give clean bottom touches during any cycle?

ENTJ 🫡

@nic_carter @Werkman Inability is very a strong term Nic, and as an observer of the discourse, I believe it is a highly unproductive assessment (and I also believe quite incorrect). It's a hard problem for sure, but by no means is it in the realm of improbable (as your term inability implies).

@Werkman gonna get a lot of awkward questions from clients about bitcoin's inability to tackle quantum risk

The Morgan Stanley sales force is about to mobilize around their new Bitcoin ETF. For reference, Morgan Stanley has one of the largest advisor networks with ~15,000 advisors.

Quantum fun.

Bitcoin bear market bottoms tend to form when multiple onchain cost-basis models converge, and the investor base shifts toward a uniform cohort of high-conviction holders. Current conditions suggest that process is now well underway. In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ examines how supply, cost basis models, and investor behaviour converge near bear market lows, and what that implies for the current cycle. Read it here → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-converge….

@WalkerAmerica No words mate, and I am very glad to hear Carla, baby, you and your family are ok. Thank you for sharing. All my love to you all, and to a speedy recovery!

Yesterday was the worst day of my life and then the best day of my life… Worst because I thought I might lose my pregnant wife. Best because Carla and the baby survived and are stable. Thank you to everyone who sent their thoughts and prayers for Carla. It’s been an insane 24 hours… Carla is stable now and both she and the baby are okay, but it got really fucking bad really fast… Scariest day/night of my life… Carla is an absolute badass and at the beginning of the slow road to recovery, and I am so damn thankful. Posting this here for those who’ve been asking what happened: Carla started feeling weird yesterday afternoon after a nap. We were up all night with our son and had to take him to urgent care in the morning, so we were all resting before going to meet up with the family for Easter Sunday. When Carla woke up she had some back pain and was very clammy. She was a bit disoriented but still totally coherent. Within 10 minutes she was almost completely unresponsive. Barely conscious. Crazy disoriented. Hardly able to respond even with single words. Zero control of her body. Totally limp in my arms. Vomited. I called 911 immediately. Paramedics arrived and she was still barely responding and could barely open her eyes. When she did open her eyes she said she couldn’t see, her vision was black. They got her in an ambulance to the hospital. Her BP was insanely low in initial readings, like 55/38… got her to the hospital and BP remained dangerously low. About an hour she appeared to improve a little after multiple rounds of fluids. BP still super low but higher than before. She became lucid and ER staff thought she was stabilizing. She was shivering from the IV and had a bit of back and abdominal pain but it was manageable. They said we’d have to stay the night for monitoring but would be fine to go home tomorrow. But then she started having severe abdominal and back pain around her shoulder blades. Pain got to the point where she was screaming like crazy. “Worst pain of my life” (and she has an extremely high baseline pain tolerance). I’ve never seen her in such unrelenting agony like that… The pain kept getting worse and they did additional scans. The ultrasound showed a lot of fluid in her abdomen, likely blood. They started giving her massive blood transfusions and shortly said she needed surgery immediately. They thought it might be a ruptured ovarian cyst but wouldn’t know for sure until they opened her up. Got her into the OR about an hour after that. Doctor said surgery would take an hour… 2.5 hours in the OR the later the doctor finally came out and said Carla and baby were both OK, thank god… longest 2.5 hours of my life... It turns out they had to do a giant incision down her entire abdomen from too to bottom to find the source of the bleeding (because it was NOT her ovaries or uterus) and bring in a third surgeon who was on call. They removed **2+ liters** of blood from her abdominal cavity. For context, the average adult woman has about 4.5 liters of blood in their entire body… They had to remove her spleen because it had ruptured and was the source of the bleeding… the doctors described it as “battlefield medicine” because of the amount of blood in and out and how dicey things got… but thank god both she and the baby are ok. The doctor’s still don’t know why the spleen ruptured… it was a “non-traumatic” rupture, meaning there was no physical injury to the spleen which caused the rupture (~1 cm). It was a “spontaneous” rupture, which is quite rare apparently. They did note that the spleen was slightly enlarged but also not sure why yet. Waiting for pathology to see if that provides any answers. May have been contributing physiological/mechanical factors from pregnancy but we just don’t know yet. The reason her shoulder blades were in such intense pain was because blood from the spleen was pooling under her diaphragm, blood is an irritant, and apparently that triggers the phrenic nerve which the brain interprets as pain between and around the shoulder blades. Multiple surgeons said she was “this close”…thank god we didn’t waste any time. When one of the surgeons checked in on her today, he said she would have been “dead by midnight” without the emergency surgery and splenectomy… The doctors also all said this combination of circumstances is very rare. Spleens obviously burst all the time, but usually it’s directly related to intense trauma, which was absent here. They said this case is probably going to be in medical journals because it’s so strange. Carla is still in a lot of pain (we’re not even 24 hours out from the end of the surgery yet), but she’s handling it like an absolute champ. She was sedated and intubated with a ventilator until about 5AM this morning. This afternoon she was already able to get up and go walking multiple times. The pain is really bad, but should hopefully start lessening with each passing day. It’s going to be a long road to recovery, especially with pregnancy on top of it, but she and the baby are both OK and right now that’s all that matters. One step at a time. In typical @carlabitcoin fashion, she’s already been cracking jokes and trying to bribe the nurses. She even fired off a tweet while still a bit loopy from the sedatives but now she’s just trying to manage the pain. Thankful for the great doctors, nurses, and paramedics who saved her life and our baby. Thanks again to everyone who has reached out and sent their thoughts and prayers. I’m passing along your messages to Carla and they’re very much appreciated. This still doesn’t seem real. A normal day turned into a nightmare so damn fast… Hug your loved ones tight. Life is a gift. Don’t take it for granted.

@SullyMichaelvan 🤝 I tested as an INTJ up until around 3-5yrs ago, when I started erring into ENTJ (which I am not firmly).

ENTJ. 69 IQ. Autistic. 5000 Testosterone. No way I wasn't gonna find Bitcoin.

It's a nonsense reply, because warp drives have zero consequence on Bitcoin. CRQCs are literally a risk Satoshi himself talked about, because the risk of cracking the underlying cryptography, whether QC, classically, or some other way is a massive risk for Bitcoin. There are reasonable signs that the probabilities are increasing of a CRQC. So no, it is your assessment which is silly, as you're demonstrating you are incapable of assessing what risks are relevant (consequence != 0).

@jessebabies @_Checkmatey_ 100%

A few thoughts on quantum: The debate around "if" vs "when" a CRQC comes to market is a fruitless one. You won't convince either side to switch, because there is little observable progress, and the risk is there may not be until its too late. The risk a CRQC comes to market is existential if Bitcoin doesn't have a credible plan of action. Risk is probability x consequence, and even if the probability is low, the consequence is 100%. Thus any sane actor should see developing a plan as worth the effort. Arguments that Bitcoin devs are doing nothing appear to be false. Arguments that 'we're all good, do nothing' are also mistaken. Reality is in between, it's a solveable issue, folks are working on it, AND we do NOT have a credible plan yet. Rushing PQ-cryptography is a massive risk, and is the wrong approach. Not developing a credible set of BIPs, is also a mistake. Coinbase and Nic absolutely have an incentive...to protect their bags and business models, which are massively long Bitcoin. They may also have incentives which are misaligned with Bitcoin, and yet that still doesn't disqualify their opinions. Coinbase has millions of BTC folks, they are the 'longest' entity in the world. Question them yes, but assuming pure malice without considering that they are capitalists looking after their interests, is frankly retarded. I'm a Bitcoiner who is massively long the asset (holdings and business), and I try my best to adopt a reasonable middle ground opinion of things. The two extremes of 'emergency' and 'no problem' are both wrong, because they do not understand the simple equation of risk = probability x consequence. I fully support the development of PQ BIPs for Bitcoin. I very much look forward to learning about the proposals, discussing the trade-offs, and doing what little I can to form consensus, and parse the complexities. Having a plan, and not needing it, is far better than needing a plan, and not having one. The truth is in the middle, and there is little benefit to debating in the quagmire of 'will-it, won't it' ever show up. A CRQC may never show up. In that case, the plan stays in the BIP repo as copy and unmerged, but fully reviewed code. What is a totally fucked result, is if we assume a CRQC won't show up, and then it does. Don't fuck this up, the middle ground is the correct path to walk. Probability x Consequence. Small number x 100% loss == take it seriously.

@aaldavem @lukedewolf Have you been following the ongoing disclosures? Buckle up.

@_Checkmatey_ @lukedewolf “Probability x Consequence. Small number x 100% loss == take it seriously.” Now consider Aliens coming to Earth and having the technology to break all PQC. Small chance x 100% loss. Do we need to take it seriously? Really?

@AlexSlezak @badcharts1 @AdamBLiv @Rajatsoni @NoLimitGains @saylor @IIICapital Seriously, gold chopped sideways for most of Bitcoins life, since the 2011 top. Bitcoin was $2 the last time Gold was at a cyclical ATH.

I don't see how 'this cycle broke down', it looks like all the others. IMHO, it suggests to me your expectations may have been set at levels that didn't match market conditions. Gold is literally thousands of years old, and of cultural significance everywhere globally. Gold also traded sideways for a decade prior to this move, and likely has several years of chop ahead to work it off. Bitcoin is 17yrs old, brand new, hard to grok, and an entirely new paradigm of thought is required. The road was never going to be easy, or quick, and frankly, the pace of progress we have already seen is breathtaking. Don't fall into the trap of extrapolating the last 6-months into intinitum.

WHY ISN'T ANYBODY TALKING ABOUT THIS ??? More bitcoin online supply seems to also cap it's price!

@AlexSlezak @badcharts1 @AdamBLiv @Rajatsoni @NoLimitGains @saylor @IIICapital chart crime, linear and log scale.

@badcharts1 @AdamBLiv @Rajatsoni @NoLimitGains @saylor @IIICapital @_Checkmatey_ This is interesting…