Max Hogan

Waymo's market share is now equal to Lyft within SF. Incredible. Network effects is one of the best sources of defensibility. But it's proven to be not that important in ridesharing. You need a minimum network size, but once you have that, there are diminishing returns. In each geo, Uber and Lyft need enough drivers to have reasonable wait times. Once wait times hit that acceptable threshold, the incremental driver doesn't improve the rider experience (eg if my Uber ride is coming in 2-4 minutes, I don't really care about the wait times getting faster). When Waymo launched in August 2023, Uber and Lyft were at 66% and 34% share in SF. 15 months later in November 2024, Waymo is at 22% - the same as Lyft - with Uber at 55%. Both Uber and Lyft lost low double digit % pts of market share, but it's more painful for Lyft. Lyft gave up ~1/3 of their share. Uber lost ~1/6. This is just when comparing all rides with pickups and dropoffs inside Waymo’s SF operating boundary (ie excludes any ride to / from the airport). Anecdotally, Waymo's wait times are longer than Uber and Lyft because they don't have enough cars on the road. But they are close enough to that acceptable threshold, that their superior product (clean, nice cars, quiet drivers, etc) tips the riders in their direction. It's possible when Waymo puts more cars on the road and reduces wait times to be in line with Uber and Lyft, their share could climb even faster.