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@ZynxBTC If STRC dividend is raised and STRC reacts positively so SATA becomes less attractive and trades worse, would they need to up the SATA dividend? If that in turn meant SATA outperforms, would they need to raise the STRC dividend again? How does the dividend hiking cycle end?

This is going to be a hated post. $SATA has closed at par twice as much as $STRC this month and we still have the rest of the week to go. Proportionally speaking, $SATA is outperforming $STRC across almost every metric, including Sharpe ratio and days at par. Both are suggesting that Strategy needs to raise the yield. I have spoken about the risk-free rate rising since the move to 11.5%... it's no longer enough for the market. Some will point to total volume and suggest things are fine but imo days at par is a far better metric than 30-day VWAP for deciding when increase the yield for $STRC. A high VWAP tells you where the price has been. Days at par tells you whether the product is actually functioning as intended. 30-day VWAP is too slow and unresponsive to market conditions at this stage of the product's maturity. This is why $SATA will continue to dominate until something changes.

@mikewmunz Is there any kind of "resistance level" for this?! Feels like there's a lot of room to run based on the highs back in 2022..... sigh....

Bitfinex - $BTCUSD Longs

@AdamBLiv I wouldn’t be surprised to see as much as half the proceeds from STRC next month go towards BTC, and the other half to the USD reserve. It keeps the optics good because they still increase BTC/share, just not by as much, and it prepares them for the next CB buyback.

S&P Global in December on $MSTR: "Over the next 12 months, we could raise the rating if: We expect the company to consistently maintain US$ liquidity of meaningfully higher than 12 months of preferred dividend and coupon payments, Strategy reduces its use of convertible debt, and The company continues to demonstrate strong access to capital markets even during a bitcoin stress." 2/3 checked off. The USD reserve is now down to 6 months of dividend coverage. Good thing cash comes easy to this company and they can replenish the reserve pretty easily.

@hillery_dan Do you think any of the debt holders will be reluctant to sell their debt? I was interested to hear Matt Cole talking about one debt holder who was reluctant to sell and they though they weren't going to be able to go completely debt free...

I expect one of these to roll off per month. Apex equity = MSTR

@SullyMichaelvan @_Checkmatey_ Are you and @_Checkmatey_ going to do video together on this?

Overwhelmingly grateful this morning. You can't hold Bitcoin for long durations of time without experiencing both euphoria and humility. Most of us start this journey with an incredible amount of excitement. The rabbit hole is deep, the ideas are intoxicating, and the orange coin feels inevitable. You make bold predictions and can't imagine a world where price goes down for long. But Bitcoin doesn't move up and to the right every day. Eventually, the price dumps. Moods shift. Conviction gets tested. And inevitably, you realize how much you still don't know. I've been wrong repeatedly over the years (and literally have the sentiment data to prove it), but IMO that's part of the process. The important thing is to use this pain to refine your worldview, learn, and continue growing. People like James and the @_checkonchain team have been instrumental in my own learning journey. I'm incredibly thankful for the opportunity to collaborate with them and share my work in this way. Hopefully it's as valuable to you as their work has been to me.

@_Checkmatey_ @benjamincowen You two should do a pod. That would be so interesting.

@benjamincowen A counter-argument worth considering, is that the date on the calendar doesn't hard-code how markets perform. The behaviour of investors, and their capital, does. If the behaviour of investors and capital was the same, stronger argument. To my eye, it isn't.

@SuperBitcoinBro What do you make of the fact that volumes are generally lower at the moment - as evidenced by this chart?

$BTC daily Noteworthy that this Saturday's reversal printed higher volume than Friday's selloff. Volume on the weekend usually drops off significantly. The last time this happened, the Saturday low was not touched again.

@ourgoodlifeuk Thanks. Where do you get this info?

@ableinch £48,512

In 2007, the average UK salary was £30,015 which at the time was roughly $60,084 USD. Making the average salary higher the NYC! Want to know where we rank now? Mississippi… yeah the lowest earning state in the whole of America… how far we have fallen in the space of 19 years. Let’s also not forget the average cost of living is lower in the US vs the UK.

@RoaringRagnar @ZynxBTC @PunterJeff @hillery_dan disagrees...

@ZynxBTC @PunterJeff Me too. And 3 years of USD Reserve. The 1.28 years currently are too little.

Strive may refrain from issuing much common stock even at these price levels despite it being accretive. The smarter play would be to continue ramping up amplification and let the $27 warrant wall do the heavy lifting on common share issuance. 26.5 million warrants sitting at $27 represents a significant and predictable injection of common equity when triggered. Get it out the way before saturating the market with $ASST shares. I am almost certain this is their plan.

@RuzhyoX @ethereanbull @BitcoinPierre What purpose does it achieve? Why would you want supply to increase in a bear market? Surely that just encourages price to go down as supply increases at the worst possible moment?

@ableinch @ethereanbull @BitcoinPierre You’re missing the point. The issuance was set to be *sustainable*. It would become more scarce as demand increases (w/ no upper bound), and less scarce as demand decreases (to a point). Max economic security for minimum cost. Supply going up in a bear market is purposeful

There’s now supposedly 121 million ETH (unverifiable), it keeps increasing with no limit

@ethereanbull @RuzhyoX @BitcoinPierre Ok. So you never wanted it to be deflationary. You were never on board with the ultra sound money thesis. And you’re happy that it’s inflationary?

@ableinch @RuzhyoX @BitcoinPierre nice selective thought process you have there. "if it's deflationary" not "ETH will be deflationary"

@ethereanbull @RuzhyoX @BitcoinPierre So your argument is that, because no one explicitly promised it would “always be deflationary”, it’s fine and they weren’t ever pushing this as a narrative for why it’s better than BTC? Man, in love, I think it’s time to consider whether there might be a little bit of cope here.

@ableinch @RuzhyoX @BitcoinPierre no. ETH fluctuates so it doesn't cause problems like being only deflationary, or only inflationary (like btc) No one ever said it would "Always be deflationary"

@MSTR_Today @btcjvs But…

@btcjvs Which is why they should retire STRF

If STRC is the core vehicle for acquiring Bitcoin for Strategy, making it the most senior security would lower financing risk and borrowing costs. It would also see more demand come in as it’s higher up the stack.

@RuzhyoX @BitcoinPierre Sure but the idea (which has clearly now been abandoned) was that BTC would continue to be inflationary, while ETH became deflationary. Hence the website is ultrasound.money They’ve shifted ground as that has failed. Meanwhile BTC’s supply issuance continues to drop

@ableinch @BitcoinPierre Turn on Bitcoin lol

@Croesus_BTC @thepowerfulHRV @nimacheeps If only there were someone with inside knowledge as to what the UK situation is.... ;-)

@thepowerfulHRV @nimacheeps is this the prevailing market belief at this time? this is quite interesting to me!

$ASST continues to pump hard! mNAV is now above 1.5x!! No I don't own any!!!

@ThisiswhyweBTC @TimKotzman Ah shame. Enjoy Prague!

@ableinch @TimKotzman I won’t be able to make it but I’ll be at Prague in June

Count me in. I want to be at every event. I’m all in. Dedicating my life to Bitcoin. Look forward to seeing you in Prague @TimKotzman

@stonychambers I buy STRK every month in my pension. Can't believe I get to accumulate at these prices.

Very telling that Strategy is not looking to retire $STRK $STRF $STRD or $STRE (starts at 56:10) Saylor says that Strategy isn't issuing at these levels because they are undervalued. The main risk of buying them was the potential retirement risk. But now this is not something to worry about. The company is keeping these "opportunities" open. The fixed rates will have their day again once BTC-derived fixed income returns to the spotlight. Strategy seeks to improve the credit for all of them. I continue to view STRK as the best security in the entire capital stack today. Buying STRK is basically buying a fifth MSTR and four fifths a 14% cumulative income stream. Nothing else is like this. While STRC will be the flagship asset, it is the least attractive for a longer time horizon. They even admit that 20 years later the yield will probably be lower.

@SullyMichaelvan @SWC_Wiki Makes sense.

I was literally just on a podcast talking about this. There are a lot of potential ways one can read into this. One of the main ones regarding the 2024 pump was the presidential election. Bitcoin isn't the only variable playing on people's emotions... any many had a lot of angry emotions towards the election.

Bitcoin is an bitch sometimes. Every single one of us came to this freedom enhancing technology with a certain vision of what this thing would be. Inevitably, eventually, we're forced to confront the fact that we've been wrong. I know this, because I've personally been wrong... repeatedly. About price. About adoption. About the world around us. In most people this emotion presents itself as anger. It comes out subtly, in the ways that we speak to those around us. It comes out in our language even if we attempt to mask it. IMO anger is one of the defining characteristics of the Bitcoin market right now. And I'm not just talking hypothetically here.... As part of the sentiment work I've been doing I literally measured smaller retail/pleb Bitcoin accounts language over time for how angry they spoke to one another (that's the chart below). TLDR: people aren't happy out there. This bottom line displays how angry the average bitcoiner is in their language usage over time. Green = More Angry Red = Less Angry So in this case, moving aggressively up and to the right is NOT a good thing. "Ok cool bro... you made some fancy charts that shows people are pissed... who cares." Well, I care. And I think you should to as there are lessons to be taken away from it, and perhaps a little bit of signal too. My top seven takeaways: 1) There's a lot more information embedded inside of your language choices than most people realize. 2) Many bitcoiners feel they were promised huge gains and now harbor some resentment about it. This is typical when expectations don't align with reality. Lesson in there. 3) It's not just poor price action, but the entire stock market, gold, and AI stocks pumping that are likely making bitcoiners extra frustrated with current conditions. 4) Anger is an incredibly powerful emotion... and not an inherently bad one. You and I cannot control Bitcoin but you can control yourself. We all have the ability to transmute negative emotion/energy into something positive if we so choose. 5) If you personally feel as though you're represented in this chart, don't just sit there and stare at the Bitcoin price. Build shit. Learn something. Work harder. Stack sats. 6) Anger sure as hell doesn't mark tops, and historically has been a great counter-signal. 7) Optimistic contrarians typically outperform angry conformists. That's all I got folks. Happy Thursday ✌️