Paul R Collins

@MarkoMatvikov The % of people having 2,3,or 4 kids has not changed. Childless women/couples has risen dramatically. That’s the drag on the fertility rate.

I think an Australian government whose policies are intended to meaningfully improve the fertility rate would be popular. The current system doesn’t just make it financially difficult to raise a family - it seems we’ve given up prioritising it altogether.

@MarkoMatvikov Yep. Less available capital for productive means.

@agequake Hence the drag on productivity.

We often debate if house prices should fall. And it's natural for those who've benefitted from rising house prices to want it to continue. But what we don't talk about enough is what a society without ever-increasing house prices could look like. We've created an economy where it isn't just easy to make money by owning homes - it's the least risky and most lucrative. What we should create is an economy where effort alone can make you rich, small businesses are more profitable and productive investments deliver higher returns. Until then, we'll continue to see poor productivity, rising intergenerational inequality and strong political resistance to affordable housing

@TheKouk The 'impact' isn't about the rate itself; it’s about serviceability. In 2000, a 6% rate applied to a $200k loan. Today, 6% applies to a $1M loan. When prices are this high, a 1% move in rates has a much more violent impact on monthly cash flow than it did 25 years ago.

Curious how so many folk still reckon interest rates have a meaningful or lasting impact on house prices. Mortgage interest rates are more or less the same today as they were 25 odd years ago, yet house prices are up 250% over that time. How do the "interest rates impact house prices" gaggle explain this?

@TheKouk And what is the average balance for boomer women? A sovereign find looks after all of its citizens.

This is wrongly framed. Australia has 20 million plus sovereign wealth funds - each individual's superannuation. Now $4.5 trillion and growing like the clappers & will not run out, as Norway's will when they sell the last off their oil. Oil output is already falling in Norway

@metbeni We will need to maintain approx 250ppm of CO2 to delay the return to glaciation and extend the Holocene by approx 50,000. Just saying.

La temperatura global está aumentando pero… ¿Y si eliminamos las causas naturales? ¿Cómo quedaría la gráfica? 🤔 Dentro 🧵

@Peter_Strachan @peter_tulip That was not the question. You asked freehold.

@agequake @peter_tulip Gaining PR in Japan. How does that work out?

Permanent residents would still live in a dwelling that they rent instead of buying. There would be zero benefit to anyone else. Policies like this seem motivated entirely by malice.

@Peter_Strachan @peter_tulip Correct. But it does answer your question.

@agequake @peter_tulip Houses are going for $1 a pop because Japan's population is falling by 700,000 pa. No one wants to buy in some villages. Bit different in Australia.

@Peter_Strachan @peter_tulip Japan

@peter_tulip Peter, where in Asia can non-citizens own freehold property?

Was worth another look.

The rise in childlessness has significantly impacted fertility rates.

The empowerment of women is the central pillar of the modern demographic transition. Access to education, careers, and contraception allowed individuals to decouple sex from reproduction and delay childbearing, often resulting in smaller family sizes or childlessness.

How did we get here? Reason: Swapping dogma for data and the scientific method. Industry: Moving from the farm to the factory and the modern city. Democracy: The collapse of monarchies in favor of individual rights. That’s the DNA of the modern world. #Modernity #Sociology

Modernity wasn’t just a time period, it was a total overhaul of the human experience. A house built on three massive shifts: Intellectual (Enlightenment), Economic (Industrialization), and Political (The Nation-State). Here’s how we went from ‘subjects’ to ‘citizens’

Modernity is the world of the "new"—a society that looks forward rather than backward, values the brain over the altar, and prises the machine over the hand.

Joint statement by Foreign ministers of UAE, Jordan, Türkiye, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/Ne…

@rdqBlueRidge @OwenKeller950M3 @TonyClimate Okay, so according to your logic astay at home mum who paid no tax is not entitled to a pension. Doh!

@OwenKeller950M3 @TonyClimate Nope, our social security is determined by what we paid into the system......don't want anyone to pay for me, I just want my money back.

I have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in social security and medicare taxes. Had I been able to invest that money in the stock market instead of the government spending my money to bomb foreign countries, I wouldn't need medicare.

@rdqBlueRidge @OwenKeller950M3 @TonyClimate Ah no you did not. Australia hasn't had a specific social security tax since 1950. Before that, income taxes and social services taxes were amalgamated, simplifying things. All cash payments are now made from general revenue.

@OwenKeller950M3 @TonyClimate Nope…..we paid for it with 13% of our lifetime earnings.

@PaulineHansonOz @samstrades ? 130 temp and permanent places? We currently have 478,000 holiday makers here. Your numbers do not make any sense at all.

@samstrades 130k would be a cap on arrivals, minus all departures (230k last year for example) to arrive at the NoM

One Nation talks tough on immigration, some saying their target would be 130k, however that number is insane given how much we've grown in the last 30 years, we're gonna remigration and zero population expansion for some time (just like #USA, Eastern Europe) 1/2 #ausbiz #housing #politics