Andrew Willans

@christankerfund No one but you then.

@andrew_willans Well I’m able to think for myself and can be disappointed with their Q1. But like I said, Q2 is stellar.

$TRMD Q1 was on the disappointing side. 70 cent dividend. However Q2 guidance is 🔥🔥 MRs at $73K. LR2s $71K.

@taobanker LOL

@andrew_willans Agree at the end of the day there are too many red flags and bad energy around this situation, the mature thing to do is remove myself from the situation/environment

Things got weird again at the sandwich shop last few days. My guy texted me saying he's in a situation and I medium key ignored it. Now he acts super passive aggressive when i'm in the store. Don't like the negative energy but sandwich still hitting right so idk.

Satellite imagery (Planet Labs) confirms significant damage to the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ). The Iranian strike yesterday was not just a warning; it was a decapitation of bunkering infrastructure. The explosion on the HMM Namu (a Panamanian-flagged, South Korean-owned ship) off the coast of the UAE has effectively frozen all insurance-seeking traffic. Abu Dhabi is reportedly "seething" at the U.S. decision to pause. They have absorbed the kinetic blows (missiles and drones) of the Iranian retaliation, only for the U.S. to "stop the clock" without securing the Strait.

Breaking! Trump pauses Project Freedom. "Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP" #oott

Here's the actual signals of the coming supply shock: 1. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 84.6 The April 2026 print hit 84.6, a level not seen since the peak inflationary spikes of early 2022. 2. CRB Index (Commodity Research Bureau): 501.25 The CRB Total Return Index hit a historical high of 501.25 at the end of April and currently hovers around the 500 mark. For the CRB to hold above 500 while the ISM is at 84.6 is a rare and lethal conjunction. 3. The Bond Curve: Average +50 bp Shift Since the "late February inflection" when hostilities in the Persian Gulf commenced, the U.S. Treasury curve has undergone a parallel bear-flattening. Average Shift: Across the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y maturities, the curve has moved up by an average of ~50 basis points.

Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a barrel premium of mid-April.

@Ross__Hendricks Schrödinger's Trump or the Potemkin President - take your pick.

Make it make sense

Here's the signals of the coming supply shock: 1. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 84.6 The April 2026 print hit 84.6, a level not seen since the peak inflationary spikes of early 2022. 2. CRB Index (Commodity Research Bureau): 501.25 The CRB Total Return Index hit a historical high of 501.25 at the end of April and currently hovers around the 500 mark. For the CRB to hold above 500 while the ISM is at 84.6 is a rare and lethal conjunction. 3. The Bond Curve: Average +50 bp Shift Since the "late February inflection" when hostilities in the Persian Gulf commenced, the U.S. Treasury curve has undergone a parallel bear-flattening. Average Shift: Across the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y maturities, the curve has moved up by an average of ~50 basis points.

Is not front month crude oil prices that should be concerning, it is the backend that has consistantly risen ..the market is telling you higher for longer

CODE RED: Supply Shock Inbound. If you are looking at the backwardated oil futures market and breathing a sigh of relief, you are wrong. The "Paper Market" is currently signaling a return to mean. While what we face is a structural collapse of the global hydrocarbon supply chain. Here’s why: 💎 The ISM "Tidal Wave". The recent ISM Prices Paid reading of 84.6 isn't just a "hot" number - it’s a historical outlier. When purchasing managers report at these levels, they aren't speculating; they are looking at invoices for raw materials and derivative products that haven't even hit the consumer yet. 💎 The "Physical vs. Paper" Chasm. While Brent futures might tease a "sell-off" at $113, the Physical Market, the "wet barrels" refiners actually need are trading at a  $30+ premium. This $30 chasm is the most deceptive gauge in the market right now. The "Paper" is trading on hope; the "Physical" is trading on survival. 💎 The CRB Index & ISM Conjunction. The CRB Index is currently at historical levels, signaling a structural inflection point.  Seeing the ISM and the CRB hit these peaks in conjunction is unprecedented.  It represents a systemic break in the supply-demand equilibrium that a simple "dip in spot prices" cannot fix. 🤖 Who is being misled? Speculators playing a game of chicken with "de-escalation" headlines are being led to the slaughter. 👩‍🎓 Who is NOT being misled?  The Bond Market. We are seeing a parallel and substantial shift up across the entire curve. The bond market has stopped believing in the "transitory" nature of this conflict and is pricing in a permanent "War Risk Premium." The Endgame: The establishment of the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” (PGSA) is an Iranian attempt at a bureaucratic annexation of the world's most vital chokepoint. It is inconceivable that the U.S. or the Gulf forces will allow this mechanism to stand. As regional forces and the U.S. redouble their efforts to break this "Authority," kinetic activity will intensify.Escalation is not a risk; it is a certainty. Between the ISM tidal wave, the CRB historical breakout, and the Physical/Paper divergence, the supply shock is already here. The price wave is certain. The supply shock is real.  Prepare. #EnergySecurity #SupplyChain #MacroEconomy #HormuzStrait #Oil #Iran #GCC @alfonsopecca @lukegrom @vikatona

@RapidResponse47 @POTUS Demonstrating a regrettably low understanding of asymmetric warfare.

REPORTER: What does Iran need to do to violate the ceasefire? @POTUS: "You'll find out... they know what not to do... they fired [from] little boats with pea shooters... you know why? Because they don't have any boats anymore."

@Toronto242M TRMD ... I might add. 😆

Many investors take profits once they’ve doubled and move on. But that mindset caps upside—your biggest gains come from letting winners run. Most people only realize it after they’ve sold too early. We will start seeing that with #memory and shipping soon. $mu $fro

🇦🇺 The Great Aussie Dilution: Aggregate Growth Hides a Per Capita Crisis. For thirty years, Australia boasted of a record-breaking run. Behind the curtain, a high-stakes experiment was being run on the Australian people. 🔎 The architects of this growth had the data. They saw the "what-if" scenarios. And yet, they chose a path that effectively traded the "Fair Go" for a headline number. The strategy was simple: if you can’t make an economy more productive through innovation, you make it "bigger" through sheer volume. By ramping up Net Overseas Migration (NOM) to record levels, they created a GDP Mirage. Total GDP stayed positive (the pie grew). GDP per capita (the slice for the individual) began to stagnate and, in many quarters, contract. 💡 Economists call this "Capital Shallowing." It’s what happens when you add people faster than you add the things people need: houses, hospitals, and infrastructure. Their Productivity Commission warned about this for over a decade. They knew that while big business gets a "labor windfall," the average worker gets a "congestion tax." The most devastating part of the plan was the impact on Housing Services. In every simulation, the conclusion was inescapable: mass migration into supply-constrained cities would explode the cost of shelter. Housing ceased to be a social necessity and became the fuel for the growth machine. By flooding the market with new demand while failing to fix the "pipes" of supply, the government effectively signed a warrant for the death of the Australian Dream. They got a "stronger" national balance sheet, but the "average person" was left with the highest housing-debt-to-income ratio in the developed world. Why was this done? Because high migration serves as a fiscal safety net for poor policy. It masks a lack of industrial investment. It provides an endless stream of new taxpayers to service national debt and an aging population. It keeps wage pressure low for the sectors that fund political cycles. The Breaking Point You can only ignore the "denominator" for so long before the people notice their slice is getting thinner. We are now seeing the inevitable fallout: a "Ghost Economy" where numbers look robust on a spreadsheet, but living standards are in structural decline. The rise of minor parties is a direct response to a "Big Australia" policy that was never put to a vote. They created a widening chasm between those who own the "growth assets" (property) and a younger generation being "diluted" out of their own future. The planners weren't blind; they were calculated. They knew mass migration would make life harder for the average Australian, but they decided the "headline growth" was worth the sacrifice. They were wrong. #Australia #Macroeconomics #HousingCrisis #BigAustralia @JEChalmers @AngusTaylorMP @MrKRudd

Do this and AI becomes a Golden Age. Ignore it and we hollow out the consumer base while a few labs extract all the surplus. The revolution is here. The macro rules aren’t. Time to write the new ones. (What do you think - token tax, human zones, or public utilities first?) #AI #FutureOfWork #Macroeconomics #TokenTax #CitizenDividend Why We Need a New Macroeconomics for AI. We’re injecting 15 quadrillion tokens into the US economy every year - synthetic labor at near-zero cost, flooding markets faster than any industrial revolution. Without a structural “loopback” to human consumers, we don’t get abundance. We get a Ghost Economy: AI produces everything, but wages collapse and demand evaporates. We need three fixes now: 1⃣Token Tax. Treat tokens as “capitalized labor harvesting.” AI labs are mining humanity’s collective intellect like oil companies once mined the ground. A tiny micro-tax on every million commercial tokens. Revenue goes straight into a Sovereign Wealth Fund that pays a Citizen’s Dividend. As tokens → infinity, human purchasing power stays tethered to the boom. Simple severance tax for the cognitive age. 2⃣Human-Only Zones. Zone certain sectors for humans only - judiciary, childcare, medical diagnosis, systemic financial audits etc. “Human-Made” becomes the ultimate luxury brand. We need cryptographic Proof-of-Personhood standards so a legal brief, code audit, or diagnosis can be verifiably authored by a real person. 3⃣LLMs as Public Utilities Frontier model weights were trained on the public internet. They should function like the Interstate Highway System - open infrastructure, not private gatekeepers taxing every cognitive task. Decentralize access. Stop letting a handful of labs own the labor substitute. @SimonDixonTwitt @howardlindzon @DataRepublican @Cryptadamist @molly0xFFF

@bykemp @Acyn @CalltoActivism That comment deserved a follow.

Wow Scott Jennings blows up at Adam Mockler: “Get your fucking hand out of my face” Mockler: We all know that Scott Jennings is more than happy to defend a war with a country that starts with letters Ira that we are currently failing that is going to put us trillions and trillions of dollars more in debt. I was only a few years old while you were in the administration defending prior endless wars.

@AndrewCFollett Moving to a multi-member proportional representative system eliminates this BS. Fact is our current politicians like BS.

You literally drew this atrocity.

@Mikulodian @Geiger_Capital Like inflation. Ok.

@andrew_willans @Geiger_Capital Why would you believe this is one time and forever limited to billionaires. Plenty of permanent government programs started as temporary measures.

The California wealth tax is not on income… It’s 5% of your net worth. It’s state seizure of private assets. This is now on the ballot and likely to pass. Realize where we are.

@santa_m3 @Geiger_Capital Yes - we have a uni-party. But capital has won. There is no need to look elsewhere.

@andrew_willans @Geiger_Capital The Biden Admin unleashed the money printers to the tune of 8 trillion+ causing massive inflation in the last five years. There are other causal factors as mentioned that is causing QOL issues and economic pressure on the middle class to unravel societal boundaries.

@santa_m3 @Geiger_Capital I understand. But there is zero doubt and there should be no argument that the current system is producing inflation, destroying social progression and mobility and polarizing society. Capital has won. Time to rebalance a bit. I support that.

@andrew_willans @Geiger_Capital I agree and the wealthy get tax breaks that enable evasion of taxes that the middle class is forced to pay. This should be rectified. My issue is w/Govt taking a bite of the apple and then saying to itself "Why stop w/them?" There is a whole other group to rape and so on.

@santa_m3 @Geiger_Capital Mostly it is money creation that causes inflation. This is a well established fact not merely an economic theory. The money power in the United States serves capital.

@andrew_willans @Geiger_Capital I concede your first point(sentence). Inflation in CA has as much to do w/illegal & legal immigration competing for resources like housing and jobs and usual supply & demand of goods. Enforce & remove illegal immigrants and many of these problems will be resolved.