arvidstone

@pbeisel @johnpavlovitz I dont know anyone in Sudan, Ethiopia or Djibouti. Are you saying no one was affected from USAID stopping 60000 tons of food meant for starving populations? Is it difficult to disagree with Elon on anything? Perh it was unfortunate to stop food deliveries to starving areas? No?

@arvidstone @johnpavlovitz Oh so maybe you can help and provide the name of a single person killed...

Elon Musk is largely responsible for eliminating USAID and killing hundreds of thousands of people. He will face a tribunal.

@pbeisel @johnpavlovitz I support Elon in much what he does, but his fanboys are predictable and somewhat ridiculous. Please don’t throw your wet panties at him next time you see him.

@johnpavlovitz Any chance you can provide the name of a single person killed?

@elonmusk Why did you leave?

Long list

@gnoble79 @jmbarry @libertyinfo_job Your valuation. He added, again, facts and context, that you had forgotten. As a serious hedge fund guy I would assume you would take that information into account and redo your own valuation. I am not saying it needs to add up to $370/share, but it would change.

@arvidstone @jmbarry @libertyinfo_job What are you talking about?

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@gnoble79 @jmbarry @libertyinfo_job He added some facts and context that you had forgotten. Do you wanna redo yours?

@jmbarry @libertyinfo_job Defend the valuation, You can’t.

@pbeisel @ninaturner Unrelated question to the post. Who is talking about breaking laws??

@ninaturner What specific law did Tesla break?

@SawyerMerritt Crazy that they claim that consumers have been ”misled”. Even *IF* true - it is not their job to point that out.

Norway’s road authority (SVV) has issued a statement following the Netherlands’ approval of Tesla’s FSD Supervised, clarifying what happens next. It now enters a broader European review process, where regulators across the EU will evaluate the decision, ask questions, and ultimately vote on whether to grant wider approval. According to SVV: • Other countries can delay the process by raising questions • There is no set timeline for approval • Norway, as a non-EU country, cannot vote but can participate and scrutinize SVV says it will focus on: • How FSD performs in Nordic conditions • Risks of driver misunderstanding • Safety, misuse, and reporting requirements Even if EU approval is granted, Norway may still require a separate review and adjustments before allowing FSD locally, similar to how Ford’s BlueCruise rollout was handled.

@pbeisel @mil000 That’s not what he said

@mil000 Nevermind they've been doing this for years, before an IPO was on the radar, I guess you are saying the taxpayer deserves shit for their dollars. OK, point made.

NASA’s launches aren’t an advertisement for their upcoming IPO

@DrEenfeldt US diet only at 2000 calories??

This graph shows what happens when people eat higher-satiety food. It's based on over 250,000 days of eating. X-axis: Hava satiety score (0–100). Higher = more filling per calorie. Y-axis: Total daily calories. The average American diet scores about 27. This drives increased hunger and overeating. Move to a score of 70+ and calories drop by half — without hunger, without restriction. People just naturally eat less because they feel full. Aiming for a score of about 50 is a great start and likely enough for most people to get a good weight and health. This is what Hava measures. Every food gets a satiety score (just take a picture of a meal or scan a barcode). Eat higher on the scale, as much or as little as you want, and your body does the rest. Take the quiz, and you can try it for free: hava.co/quiz

@elonmusk Trump should learn to express himself in the same manner. And you. If you want to get your point across beyond the fanboys

What he said

@NickGibbsIAG Can you please share why this is not as difficult as he says? Please be specific (in the technical details)

This won't age well... and when I say that I mean in 2026 you'll see just how retarded Yann really is. $TSLA community already knows it.

@karljakoblind @CoachDanGo How old are you?

@CoachDanGo And you still have your strength. I think 40s is the pinnacle of life

40 years old is the perfect age. You've lived enough life to know what to value. You have enough experience to take action on what you've learned.

@SawyerMerritt Looks a tad GEY

The Cybercab has a rear camera washer! This is a feature than many Tesla owners have been asking for, especially in snowy areas. Hope it makes it to the rest of the lineup.

@boriquagato @nostoimeraki @PaulConRO Perhaps by attacking muslim countries, creating a awave of immigrants??

@nostoimeraki @PaulConRO how is france's immigration policy the fault of the US?

Without France, the US wouldn't have become independent. Remember that.

@elonmusk Wow! It was a murder

Wow

@boriquagato Thank you for explaining the deeper meaning of this tragedy. The deeper meaning being: your point.

a bar at a swiss ski resort catches fire. rather than run or respond, the patrons stand around dancing under it and filming it for instagram. as a result, 40 people who could have reached safety died because they seem, quite literally, to have forgotten that danger is real. i mean, it's a little on the nose, but can you think of a better allegory for western civilization right now?

@SawyerMerritt Bold prediction

I predict the average miles driven per day on FSD across Tesla’s entire owner fleet is going to reach an all-time high in Q4 by a WIDE margin. Tesla owners cumulatively drove over 1 billion miles on FSD (Supervised) in Q2 2025. That's an average of 11 million miles per day, which was an all-time high.

@DrEenfeldt @K_Paczkowski So then you should probably take off the top 10 list. Ketchup is not the battle.

@K_Paczkowski Probably pretty small most of the time, true.

What are the top 10 foods stopping health-conscious people from losing weight? I'll share the low-satiety foods logged the most often by users of the HAVA app. Here are the first four. 10. Ketchup 9. Balsamic vinaigrette salad dressing 8. Vegetable oil 7. Heavy whipping cream More coming up. What do you think is the most commonly eaten low-satiety food?

@DrEenfeldt I think it’s fair to say that LMHR is at least not protective against arteriosclerosis

I am pro keto, for the benefits it brings to many. I’m also pro being honest about the risks for the small minority of people who get sky-high LDL on keto (a fixable problem). Those two things should not be contradictions, for people looking at this with an open mind.