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@askPraf

Patiently long...

Katılım Şubat 2017
299 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++@CommodMkt·
This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time. A super cycle already underway before Hormuz closed. Brent will break out. The security premium is not transitory. Three drivers. Not fading. Intensifying. Deglobalization. Electrification. Redistribution. All three turbo-charged versus our 2020 super cycle call. We are still in the bottom of the first inning. None of the imbalances have been resolved. They grow by the day. Own the grains/softs. Own the metals. Own the molecules. Remember, you cannot print molecules carlyle.com/carlyle-compas…. 10/10
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Jeffrey Currie 🆔++
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++@CommodMkt·
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
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Senator Eric Schmitt
Senator Eric Schmitt@SenEricSchmitt·
The "Visa Cartel" has its own “Visa Temple” in Hyderabad, which sees thousands of Indians circling altars and getting passports blessed for U.S. work visas. American workers shouldn’t have to compete against a system this gamed.
Senator Eric Schmitt tweet mediaSenator Eric Schmitt tweet media
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Senator Eric Schmitt
Senator Eric Schmitt@SenEricSchmitt·
Programs like H-1B, L-1, F-1, and OPT are displacing U.S. workers, suppressing wages, and hollowing out our middle class. Fraud and abuse are rampant. American workers are losing, so who's winning? Answer: The "Visa Cartel"🧵
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@bscholl Now do other airports in the country
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Blake Scholl 🛫
Blake Scholl 🛫@bscholl·
DFW is an abomination of an airport: - 8p on a Sunday, Precheck and Touchless ID are closed. No Clear - Floor and ceiling tile most recently refurbished by the Soviets ~1987 - Centrally planned bodegas don’t stock sparkling water - Concessions straight from a bad 1990s mall
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Han 🇺🇲
Han 🇺🇲@Vonvoghoul·
@CasuallyGreg There are absolutely ZERO servers or bartenders who want you bring food to you losers for an hourly wage. If they were paid a flat hourly fee, say goodbye to any form of customer service and your food would/should be spit in.
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𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐠
𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐠@CasuallyGreg·
“Pay our employees, because we won’t.”
𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐠 tweet media
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@com_oceania @CasuallyGreg My god u r regarded, go travel other countries to see what a service actually is. Getting food to the table is considered service in America, laughable!
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Cheyenne
Cheyenne@com_oceania·
@CasuallyGreg Tips are sales commission Servers and bartenders are salespeople If you want good service, tip! If you want crappy service and to be treated poorly, don’t tip and get an hourly paid server and bartender
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Praf@askPraf·
@FirstSquawk Why do give grant cardone any visibility here
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
Grant Cardone Is Certain: Bitcoin Will Hit $189,425 In 2026.
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Justin Miller
Justin Miller@justinmilleresq·
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at Milken Institute: “I don’t mind paying taxes. I love this country.” SEC Form 4: Jen-Hsun Huang Annuity Trust I & II Lori Lynn Huang Annuity Trust I & II Huang Irrevocable Remainder Trust Huang 2012 Irrevocable Trust J. and L. Huang Investments, L.P.
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@devahaz U must be regarded to have that take
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Deva Hazarika
Deva Hazarika@devahaz·
Every time people complain about property tax increasing when your house appreciates from $500k to $1M and at 1% your property tax goes up $5,000, they always ignore the fact that you also have $500,000 in gains to help cover that
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Praf@askPraf·
@goodalexander @sama Did u run different agents for design, build, test, validate? Or one shot it? Any best practices?
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goodalexander
goodalexander@goodalexander·
(crypto focused, L1 fork) We spent months trying to copy Zcash-style privacy into PostFiat with Opus and got stuck. GPT-5.4 finally got basic Halo2 working with tool use spinning validators up/down. GPT-5.5 then proposed a better regulatory design and pushed through a Railgun-style assurance implementation in 2 days, across two 8+ hour sessions. C++/Rust/Python, validator/devnet testing, huge context. Ended w working shielded transactions w assurance / high latency
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Sam Altman
Sam Altman@sama·
i would like to talk to people who have built amazing things with 5.5 that weren't possible with earlier models. i am especially interested in examples that took ludicrous token budgets. thanks.
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@mitsuhiko The idea is to keep more builders, the people who are left will be graded on how well they build, any manager that didn’t get fired will get fired if they don’t build well
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Armin Ronacher ⇌
Armin Ronacher ⇌@mitsuhiko·
Why does everybody want managers to be ICs? Please someone explain this to me from first principles.
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong

This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase: Team, Today I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we're doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the future. Why now Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both. First, the market. Coinbase is well-capitalized, has diversified revenue streams, and is well-positioned to weather any storm. Crypto is also on the verge of the next wave of adoption, with stablecoins, prediction markets, tokenization, and more taking off. However, our business is still volatile from quarter to quarter. While we've managed through that cyclicality many times before and come out stronger on the other side, we’re currently in a down market and need to adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth. Second, AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks. Non-technical teams are now shipping production code and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically, and it's accelerating every day. All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company. The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core. What this means To get there, we are not just reducing headcount and cutting costs, we’re fundamentally changing how we operate: rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. What does this mean in practice? - Fewer layers, faster decisions: We are flattening our org structure to 5 layers max below CEO/COO. Layers slow things down and create coordination tax. The future is small, high context teams that can move quickly. Leaders will own much more, with as many as 15+ direct reports. Fewer layers also means a leaner cost structure that is built to perform through all market cycles. - No pure managers: Every leader at Coinbase must also be a strong and active individual contributor. Managers should be like player-coaches, getting their hands dirty alongside their teams. - AI-native pods: We’ll be concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents to drive outsized impact. We’ll also be experimenting with reduced pod sizes, including “one person teams” with engineers, designers, and product managers all in one role. In short: AI is bringing a profound shift in how companies operate, and we’re reshaping Coinbase to lead in this new era. This is a new way of working, and we need to leverage AI across every facet of our jobs. To those who are affected I know there are real people behind these decisions — talented colleagues who have poured themselves into this company and our mission. To those of you who will be leaving: thank you. You’ve helped build Coinbase into what it is today, and I am sincerely grateful for everything you've done. All impacted team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and a senior leader in your organization. Coinbase system access has been removed today. I know this feels sudden and harsh, but it is the only responsible choice given our duty to protect customer information. To those affected, we will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks base pay (plus 2 weeks per year worked), their next equity vest, and 6 months of COBRA. Employees on a work visa will get extra transition support. Those outside of the US will receive similar support, based on local factors and subject to any consultation requirements. Coinbase prides itself on talent density. Our employees are among the most talented people in the world, and I have no doubt that your skills and experience will be highly sought after as you pursue your next chapters. How we move forward To the team that is staying, I know this is a difficult day. We’re saying goodbye to colleagues and friends you've been in the trenches with. But here’s what I want you to know as we move forward together: Over the past 13 years, we have weathered four crypto winters, gone public, and built the most trusted platform in our industry. We’ve made it this far by making hard decisions and by always staying focused on our mission. This time will be no different – nothing has changed about the long term outlook of our company or industry. And most importantly, our mission has never been more important for the world. Increasing economic freedom requires a new financial system, and we’re building it. The Coinbase that emerges from this will be more capable than ever to achieve our mission. Brian

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molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
Let me explain Dallas(s) 1. The summers are unbearable and this cannot be understood without moving there. You can't just visit Texas for 3 weeks in peak summer and understand it, because that's not why it's bad. It's bad because it's late October and it's 90+ and you're questioning your sanity as to whether not it will ever end. 2. Dallas' culture, superficially seems good, but once you dig down... 3. Dallas living is about the airport. You save money in Dallas and then fly out all the time because being in Dallas is rough. Airline travel in the US has declined a lot, so this way of life works less well. 4. The driving. It's dangerous. You need a tank and you're going to be sitting in it all the time. Dallas sort of seems like a city but it's not really. It's more like an area. 5. You can trade 3% state income tax for better weather, more trees, and fewer problems. I think Dallas is a solid place to live in a bigger house with A/C and grind for money aggressively for a short period of time and then move out of. Other than that, unless you are tied down there (job, family), I can't recommend it.
Amy Nixon@texasrunnerDFW

I am astounded by the number of millennial families who moved to Dallas, bought a home, then turned around and sold the home to move out of Dallas, in less than a 5 year time span Is Dallas just super transient or is this a post-pandemic phenomenon happening everywhere?

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
The winner in all of this AI token spend isn’t: 1. More revenue growth 2. Less OpEx It’s: 1. Leisure time - go home early, work on a side gig, play video games etc etc etc My suspicion is that people are using blower token budgets to do their job in less time. Not so more work in the same time. This may change but humans are not motivated to do more work and see upside accrue to a few. Take this to the bank as Wall Street starts demanding specific data about AI enhancements over these next 18 months.
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
The ultimate AI trade will be finding a way to do a run-around on Boomer controlled assets. Find a why to enable AI researchers to work remote so they don’t have to buy boomer owned housing when the labs IPO. Find a way to enable startups to offer AI-driven healthcare offshore without having to deal with the doctor cartel or FDA. Find a way to enable the public to invest in AI startups at scale while not getting rug pulled so there is no incentive to buy the SPX at inflated multiples. Find a way to lift-and-shift corporations and communities so states can’t jam you with taxes when pensions go broke or boomers decide they no longer want to pay property tax. Find a way to leverage AI to eliminate the value of lawyers and consulting firms owned by boomer partners. Jihad on boomers.
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Pato Bonato
Pato Bonato@patobonato·
Hilo de Países donde me sentí más seguro caminando de noche (de menos seguro al más seguro):
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@atensnut U must be dumber than a rock
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Juanita Broaddrick
Juanita Broaddrick@atensnut·
Trump just posted on truth. Our President works for free.
Juanita Broaddrick tweet media
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@nytimes God u guys r retarded
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The New York Times
The New York Times@nytimes·
Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained hidden for 17 years. A trail of clues — and a year of digging by our reporter, John Carreyrou — led us to a 55-year-old computer scientist in El Salvador named Adam Back. nyti.ms/4bXWC3V
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Praf
Praf@askPraf·
@WalterHudson Welcome to how ROW has been operating for a while
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Walter Hudson
Walter Hudson@WalterHudson·
Matt's on to something I've been thinking about for a while. Because of the abhorrent stewardship of the nation in recent generations, and the ascendancy of AI and robotics, we're quickly headed to a point where the decentralized family is going to become impossible. I have no desire to see my boys cast out into a modern wilderness where they have no capacity to succeed. They can stay, as long as they want, along with their future wives and children. Multi-generational housing is a future we're all headed towards. Costs are too much. Values are under attack. Technology is changing everything. We're ironically returning to a time like that which has come before, where an abundance of children and grandchildren equals wealth... so long as they abide by productive values and remain loyal to their family legacy. We're returning to clans, whether we like it or not. The best way to navigate the new reality is to be the best patriarch or monarch you can imagine.
Matt Walsh@MattWalshBlog

I used to be entirely in the camp that said you should kick your kids out at 18 and force them to live independently and make their own way in the world. I don’t feel that way at all anymore. I want all my kids to live with us until they get married. Even after they’re married, if they want to live on our property, or close by, my wife and I would love that. The important thing is to teach your kids responsibility, which we’re doing. They need to contribute and help around the house, which all of our kids do from a very young age. Provided you aren’t raising ungrateful useless moochers, why kick them out? Why drive them away from your family home? I don’t see the point in it anymore. I actually like my kids and like being around them. Maybe they’ll all end up scattered to the wind. But I’d prefer to keep the family together. Why wouldn’t I?

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