Joe

@drydenwtbrown 4) Assuming a fixed pool of work, and a larger pool of people needing work. Why wouldn't we redefine the average work week spreading out the efficiencies gained? It's exactly what happened during a previous industrial revolution (although it wasn't a clean path).

Three AI scenarios: 1. AI progress stops; economy collapses. This is extremely implausible given the scaling laws have held for ~6 years. 2. AI progress continues and takes jobs, but new jobs are created. Requires large scale retraining. Implausible given we have no visibility into what those jobs might be; during the industrial revolution we knew manufacturing jobs would be created; the analogue here is SWEs and they will be the first ones automated. 3. AI progress continues and takes jobs, and few/no new jobs are created. In this case, we will need some form of UBI. This is the most likely outcome given the trajectory of AI progress and a common sense assessment of its affect on our work.

@JJeffrey100 @610Neff11026 @boneGPT Dont do 2mg to start. Not unless you are super obese. Slower is better. Like .50 is reasonable to get a sense of it. And then can go up from there.

@610Neff11026 @boneGPT Hmm. Ugh I don't know why I'm obsessing over this. I def don't want the GI issues and only care about the liver fat targeting (I drank a lot when I was younger and no amount of exercise and diet is helping).

started retatrutide >eating is optional >drinking feels gross >smoking weed feels dumb >gambling feels like it's for the goyim woke up with the sunrise, going for a walk

@buccocapital This is good stuff. Really enjoying your posts man...

Running Faster to Go Nowhere: The AI Adoption Trap educatedguesser.substack.com/p/running-fast…

AI is supposed to make knowledge workers feel like they are wearing an Iron Man suit Instead, everyone's running 2x as fast to go nowhere I wrote about why people, their companies, and the market are trapped in an AI Fractal of Panic that is pushing them to run the wrong race

@Kyrannio @dorkdummy Its just not messaging to people that got their jobs axed via ai or ai related layoffs. You see so many headlines about yet another CEO cargo cutting ai layoffs. As Dave Chappell said "you never mess with a man's money"

Agreed the marketing angle there has largely been terrible. Anyone would feel this way if presented things in the most negative light possible to their own well-being and this is definitely the biggest issue. Empowerment is key, and these things are empowering but not being shown to users in this manner and instead the messaging has largely been horrible imo

@keysmashbandit until they start putting real money behind advocating for 20 hour work week (since you don't get to UBI prior to widespread robotic work replacement). I don't think they are serious beyond PR.

Actually this is correct and I'd go further. Beyond PR, the moral move is for big labs to start heavily investing in UBI lobbyists, thinktanks, whatever, to mitigate the risk of economic upheaval. A better world is possible!

@AuclairsDad You dont think we bleed out more from here as oil impacts really start hitting?

@Ramon_Capra @johnkonrad There is no such opportunity without a ground invasion. And that has a lot of costs in American lives and oil prices. The gain of controlling the flow isnt worth it, when we could blockade or bomb kharg island if resource denial was our objective.

Serious question, Why isn't it in America's Best interest long term to have extreme control over Hormuz and Mandeb Straits? I can get the argument of short (perhaps even medium) term hands off to try to get other countries to step up more... That can make sense given our actions. But all these comments have been making the long term goals (aside from setting Iran back militarily like a decade) far more questionable. And it seems like we could even be squandering an opportunity tbh... Like ultimately If all this is power projection with an eye against China, and dealing with Chokepoints, surely having Europe, the Middle East, and Asia dependent on us to access the majority of Middle Eastern Oil is a good thing... Like it seems we've been taking steps to curtail Chinese/Russian influence/power on global chokepoints - Panama Canal, Venezuela, Greenland... But are we even fully pushing against London for Insurance, or was that just more of a half step that isnt gunna lead anywhere? Wouldn't making our Allies like Japan and South Korea more responsible for Hormuz just diminish their capabilities and reliance on US in regards to a potential Chinese conflict?

BREAKING: US Navy will not open the Strait of Hormuz Trump gives nations who import oil from the Middle East three options: 1) Buy your oil from US and Venezuela instead 2) Secure the Strait themselves with limited US support Or 3) Wait for Hormuz to reopen naturally

@runaway_vol model generated code isn't copyrightable.

anthropic is setting up the mother of all lawsuits. ever wondered why claude is "co-authoring" all of the software you produce. they're gonna slingshot themselves to a $100 trillion valuation by suing the whole world economy and possibly winning

@JrCulperJR @phl43 @luckyatr Why do you think this?

Once again, Pape-style arguments to the effect that Iran keeps becoming stronger as it's getting wrecked are idiotic, but it doesn't follow that the war is going well for the US, which it obviously isn't, because war isn't just about blowing shit up and killing people.

@davidhazony US military plans out things meticulously for tons of scenarios. I think that is what we see, the preplanned playbooks getting executed well. The political assumptions were not correct and they've had to pivot. Otherwise you do basic stuff like refill oil reserves.

I’m no military planner, but if you don’t see a systematic, meticulously planned, phase by phase operation being currently orchestrated in Iran, you are either not paying close attention or deliberately distorting what everyone can see.

@DennyCr35073144 @SharpFootball Coffee is a vegetable man. Largest supply of antioxidants in typical American diet. Artificial sweeteners are probably not great tho.

@SharpFootball Consuming coffee is not a true fast. It’s not just about zero calories it’s not stimulants, artificial sweeteners or coffee/tea that contain antinutrients

tried a three day water fast first time doing one took it to 86 hours and just now finished figured I'd share some thoughts & surprises on the experience for those who haven't tried one but are interested

@PeterVilleroy @yrechtman Every robotics company is teaching robots how to dance or kickbox, but not to how to cook. Its terribly backward.

@yrechtman Ask yourself what the avg consumer pays another human to do for them and could be replaced by an agent, the result is vanishingly small. Consumers want cleaning personnel and butlers but not much else

Growing suspicion that there are vanishingly few use cases for consumer agents. People don’t do work in their personal lives. The only people who do are sf dorks using spreadsheets to plan trips to tahoe

@Biohazard3737 @STL_Biotech It seems like the big unknown is how long they continue blocking the straight preventing oil tankers from navigating it? Does it take much military capability to do that? Houthis were effective at blocking ships just as a paramilitary.

@lapislagoons What was it?

sometimes you meet a guy and you’re like awww why doesn’t he have a girlfriend? and then he shows you

@JimRobinette4 @JewishWarrior13 it seems like their strategy was to get close, but not actually do it. And if you view historical tv, they've been "weeks away" since the 2000's practically. basically the leverage was what they cared about, not actually the use of it.

@JewishWarrior13 In other words, we were justified?

🚨WILD: Steve Witkoff just said on Fox News that at the first meeting with the Iranian they told them very clearly, “we have enough material for 11 nuclear bombs, and that is our starting point.”

@Jason @jack @blocks Or admission that the company is giving up on growth.

@jack @blocks Leadership is hard, but this feels like (another) visionary move. 🫡 Have never sold a share, since being a private investor in square 🙏🏼

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

@PaulSkallas @OP13 The ozone layer is thin there. So UV exposures higher later in the day?

@OP13 It gets hot in a lot of places

I've heard this from a number of Australians. It's essentially an early morning society. Even in big cities. A bit different than other places. I always wondered why

@ZenomTrader @salmanmunir96 How did you automate the backtesting into claude loop?

@salmanmunir96 I'm on the 200$ subscription, the 100 should be enough

Crazy what autonomous AI agents can do right now. Claude Code researched academic papers, coded a multi symbol strategy from scratch, compiled it, debugged it, backtested it across 4 timeframes and 3 instruments, and came back with validated results. I built the pipeline. It did everything else. Jim Simons built the Medallion Fund, the most successful trading fund in history, by automating systematic research. 66% average annual returns for decades. The key was never any single strategy. It was the pipeline that could find, test, and validate edges faster than anyone else. First time i did this it was on NinjaTrader 8, now i have both an MT5 and NT8 bridge running. It tested across M30, H1, H2, H4 and also across multiple symbols simultaneously: USTEC, XAUUSD, USDJPY. If the edge is real, it should survive all of them. The results: 4/4 timeframes profitable. M30: profit factor 1.33, Sharpe 2.91 H1: profit factor 1.37, Sharpe 2.34 H2: profit factor 1.54, Sharpe 2.07 H4: profit factor 1.38, Sharpe 1.29 This is what 0.1% of the industry is actually doing right now.

@MikeIsaac @markmcerqueira AI Bull in a china shop wrecks the display completely. But the warehouse has replacements.

@markmcerqueira earnest q: what is an economical way to phrase that for mass consumption of audiences aka the average newspaper reader? would be a challenge for me to conceptualize

amazon's internal A.I. coding assistant decided the engineers' existing code was inadequate so the bot deleted it to start from scratch that resulted in taking down a part of AWS for 13 hours and was not the first time it had happened incredible ft.com/content/00c282…

@venerableChe @atelicinvest You have to break down concepts to a level that they can be done by an alien machine intelligence without a lot of understanding of the world. Its not super trivial like the one shot ppl on twitter promo. Gotta know exactly what you want and a rough idea of how dumb the model is.

@atelicinvest I used models (chatgpt/gemini/claude) on the web interface. Now I try to use it on vscode, directly on my files, but the result is always mediocre. I prompt gemini so it writes prompts for claude code that I paste on vscode. Result is bad, i try one shot, doesn't work. Any idea?

Your median decision maker, btw - uses chatgpt to look up stuff - may have tried Claude cowork if they're adventurous - swamped at their job - been told that this ai stuff is gonna solve all our problems - see random posts of ppl supposedly doing cool stuff on LinkedIn / twitter / reddit - barely had enough time to read the posts - confused by what is even possible and what's available - what is this claw thing everyone is talking about - why arent my employees 10x more productive like they're supposed to - God damnit I really need to check this out + Told Steve to do some research on it and write up a report. He gave me something that's like 50 pages and I don't have time to go through it - wsj says goldman got bunch of ppl from Claude to put their back office out of work - are all my competitors adopting this? - am I gonna get out gunned in 6 months? etc