Baird

@BrettErickson28 Article is paywalled.

@atxbaird Uhhhh sir I literally said in this piece I think the blockade will not produce the results the United States wants.

In a new article in The Washington Post, the debate surrounding Trump’s claim of “Iran’s Oil Infrastructure Exploding” is addressed. Washington is operating on a theory that as a result of the blockade and economic warfare campaign being waged under Operation Economic Fury, Iran will be forced to “shut-in” their oil wells. It has been pitched to the White House that this will cause “catastrophic and irreversible damage”, but many energy experts identify major gaps in this proposition. Nevertheless, we have also seen Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a man with approximately 0 days of experience dealing in economic warfare or the energy sector, also state that the “pumping will collapse soon”. What I love most of all about this article, even more than my comments being included that this shut-in and economic warfare theory is a desperate grasping at straws, saying, “We are banking on being saved by a silver bullet that is flawed in a number of ways”, is that the team at The Post included Miad Maleki’s insights as well into the debate. It should come as no surprise to anyone who follows me, or this argument as a whole, that I ascribe the economic warfare and blockade campaign strategy to Miad and The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. And, while I personally believe it is built on shaky foundations, I have the utmost respect for the legitimate expertise Miad brings to the table in this argument. I just happen to disagree on this topic. So the question now remains: Will the U.S. blockade and economic warfare campaign bring Iran to their knees? But more importantly: Will that happen in an expeditious enough manner to which it is a viable strategy for the global economy? washingtonpost.com/business/2026/…

@JohnCornyn Nuclear weapon threat has been 2 weeks away for 30 years. JCPOA was taking care of it. Morons in DC are now guaranteeing it.

Do you support the Iranian regime acquiring a nuclear weapon?

@jonathan_furer @ShakirOneal @MouinRabbani @LevineJonathan Do a search for “dog rape.” Overwhelming evidence from multiple credible sources. Here’s one with some citations. x.com/owenjonesjourn…

@ShakirOneal @MouinRabbani @LevineJonathan Did Israel go into Gaza unprovoked and rape murder and torture as government policy ever? When they do…you can ask us to condemn them. Until that day…just answer the question.

It's curious how American Jews are constantly asked to denounce Israel, Netanyahu, West Bank settlers, Zionism, Ben Gvir, the war in Gaza and more — and how many American Jews willingly submit to these litmus tests But asking Muslims to denounce Hamas, Hezbollah is considered offensive to even ask

@TheBHentel Long snapper

Having a debate . What’s the easiest position to play in football? I say safety .

@FBGreatMoments Vince Young. Rookie of the year and then…

Name a player who’s rookie season turned out to be their best.

JCPOA concept was to help the Iranians. Strengthen the middle class and like everywhere else when the middle class gains economic power they force reforms in government. This is the way it has played out pretty much everywhere. So, yes, definitely a better option was already in place.

@bairdcraft @ContadorBerti @miadmaleki Sure buddy:) maybe you should read some. Regime change happened many times like this. Lybia, Syria, Afghanistan … The cost for freedom will never scare us, freedom only comes at a cost. You don’t understand this because your previous generation paid this price for you

Everyone's focused on Iran's crude oil export/extraction disruptions. But there is another real domestic crisis: gasoline. Pre war, Iran was burning through 126 million liters of fuel per day while producing only ~110 million liters domestically. That 15-20M liter/day gap was being covered by imports costing ~$6 billion a year. 1/6 On March 7, strikes hit oil storage depots in Tehran and Alborz Province. ~30 tanks hit in southern Tehran alone. The immediate response: per-fill limits in Tehran cut from 30 liters to 20 liters overnight. Stations reported running dry. Citizens described it as "سهمیه‌بندی خاموش" or "silent rationing."

@RLHeinrichs Maybe you should read this about sanctions and blockades. thelancet.com/journals/langl… 77% deaths 0-15. Largest cohort 0-1.

Important point to continue to emphasize.

@TimothyLake @RLHeinrichs Double tap

@RLHeinrichs Rings hollow knowing the bombed a little girls school. Save me with the moral high ground bullshit

You should because what you are suggesting has never happened in the modern world. It would be a 1st and likely millions of innocents would die. The DOD knows this of course. The goal isn’t regime change. The goal is to turn Iran into a failed state like Libya with endless wars, millions dead, and endless suffering. Specifically trying to harm the children.

@bairdcraft @ContadorBerti @miadmaleki Who said there will be no boots? People of Iran came to street en mass empty handed, imagine if we get armed they are outnumbered 10 to 1. Trump already hinted at arming opposition through Kurds. Thanks, I read about these topics everyday. I maybe add that to my list.

@StateDept We will blockade them and starve their children to death in order to hurt the regime and not the people of Iran. Got it.

SECRETARY RUBIO: Our desire is not to hurt the people of Iran. Frankly, we wish the voices of the people of Iran were heard as opposed to having 40,000 of them murdered in the streets, inside of hospitals, and executed on a routine basis. They are victims of that regime.

@miadmaleki Here’s the link: thelancet.com/journals/langl… Make sure to read appendices for age group breakdown. 77% of these are under 15. Literally killing millions of children.

@miadmaleki Previous sanctions killed up to 38mm people—mostly babies and children under 5 over 50 years. How may children will sanctions and a blockade kill? Did FDD also recommend the double-tap on the girl’s school on day 1?

@HAM1DR37A @ContadorBerti @miadmaleki Read a little. I suggest you start with this book: cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/978150176… Regime change doesn’t work without boots. The only thing that will happen is a brutal regime will become more brutal.

@ContadorBerti @bairdcraft @miadmaleki It is not supposed to change regime behavior, It is supposed to cut the lifeline of the regime. Regime won’t be able to pay its mercenaries soon. And yes we people will take a hit too but the financial damage will decrease the human casualties if people rise up again.

@marklevinshow Clearly the length of your posts are negatively correlated to your intelligence. Try fewer words.

The fastest way to end the war with Iran is to actually defeat the regime or make a deal that doesn't defeat the regime but attempts to contain it.  The truth is that it cannot be permanently contained for several reasons, including that if a Democrat becomes president, or even an isolationist or establishment Republican, the necessary military force will not be used to ensure compliance because the regime itself is fundamentally and ultimately incapable of honoring a deal given its fundamentalist Islamist ideology.  Also, the public will tire of it over a course of years (a forever war) and there will be other enemies that will require some form of attention, thereby requiring our military resources to also deal with them in some form -- perhaps an even bigger foe, like Red China. To defeat the regime requires: 1. continued military operations aimed at obliterating the IRGC and perhaps key dual use infrastructure; 2. continued maximum economic pressure, especially continuation of the blockade; AND 3. arming the people in Iran, a very important and necessary resource (we've done this before during the Reagan administration and I presume the CIA is still up to the task).   The president will be criticized regardless of how he proceeds, as the Democrats and their media are rooting for the enemy and hope to gain advantage in the midterms.  So, they must be ignored.  But a real victory will not only ensure our security from a nuclear-obsessed terrorist regime beyond the Trump presidency (as it won't exist any longer), but the American people will ultimately praise it as victory has a way of focusing the mind and the heart (which should have political benefits as well).  I am concerned that waiting for the enemy to come forward with some kind of an offer, which might be framed as a victory, could be problematic. I must caution, however, as I have before, that I am not privy to all the information.  And I also underscore that President Trump is never to be underestimated.  He is a truly gutsy and great leader.  Indeed, he has done more than all previous seven presidents who preceded him combined to deal with the Iranian regime's grave threat.  And for this alone he will be remembered long after most of us are gone.  That's my 2 cents worth, again.

@SecScottBessent @wolfejosh What do you have against Iranian babies and children? They are the most vulnerable and will be the first to die.

While the surviving IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE. Pumping will soon collapse. GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!

@SpencerGuard Remember this is the guy that said IDF was much more careful and moral in Gaza than the US soldiers were in Iraq. We know who he works for.

You have to admire the delusion...of course the U.S. military can open the Strait of Hormuz with military means and this promoted General would likely not be around to see it if the President directs that course of action.

💢 NEW: Senior Iranian Official to Drop Site: Iran Is Setting Its Own Terms for Ending the War A senior Iranian official with direct knowledge of internal diplomatic deliberations spoke to Drop Site News, offering a clearer picture of Tehran’s position as negotiations with the U.S. remain deadlocked and Iran prepares for two dramatically different paths that may unfold in the coming days: a return to diplomacy or a resumption of the war with the U.S. and Israel. 1. On the conditions for resuming direct talks: 🔸 “We’re currently moving forward with our own design, and we feel continuing negotiations doesn’t make sense until the U.S. government lifts the maritime blockade. The scope of the conflict has expanded, and naturally the issue is no longer purely nuclear.” 2. On President Trump and U.S.’s approach to diplomacy: 🔸 Iran believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been given unprecedented influence over U.S. intelligence estimates and White House decision-making. 🔸 “Our country has had negotiations with the Americans at various levels over the past 30 years — formal and informal, public and back-channel. It’s as if they are showing up to a football match with rugby rules,” the senior official said. 🔸 Iran has total disdain for Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and views him as both oblivious of diplomatic processes and totally ignorant of technical issues. 🔸Kushner is viewed by Iran as Israel’s man at the table. Iran, the senior official said, does not see any reason to deal with these two without a figure like Vice President JD Vance present. 3. On what Araghchi conveyed to Pakistani mediators: 🔸 “We explained our technical positions to the Pakistani side. Regarding the nuclear issue, solutions that we had previously proposed were raised again so that we could reach a shared understanding with them. Our remarks were not directed at the Americans given that these are bilateral discussions. We believe that the intermediaries themselves should also be technically briefed on the proposals.” 4. On what a serious U.S. negotiating posture would require: 🔸 Iran has given no public indication it would alter its position opposing a transfer of its enriched uranium, but has also maintained it is willing to resolve the issue as part of a comprehensive settlement with the U.S. 🔸 “These issues, on the ground, have clear and practical solutions, and we have always examined them in meaningful negotiations. Any serious negotiation on the American side must involve a large team, including experts and multiple government departments, so that they can properly understand and process a meaningful agreement that covers the various cross sectoral dimensions on their side.” 5. On whether Trump can deliver a deal: 🔸 “Our assessment is that we do not see [Trump] as capable of shaping the agreement. Our take is that they’ve basically decided to keep the war going until there’s a regime change” — which the official predicted would continue to fail.

@RKelanic Iran ruined Jimmy Carter’s presidency. And the same students who raided our embassy are now in charge. They will hold out at least until midterms. Wouldn’t surprise me if they held out for the rest of Trump’s term.

2/Iran is fighting for its survival. Israel, maybe even the U.S., wants to make Iran a failed state. The war is existential for Iran — not just the regime. Many regime opponents will support the war effort because, to them, a fractured Iran is worse than the status quo.

1/I tend to think Iran’s ability to adapt, finding creative ways to store or export oil, is stronger than FDD analysts assume. But let’s say FDD’s right and Iran is forced to shut in production in the near term (weeks). So what? A brief 🧵

Strongly second this. And add, if you want to understand the moronic strategy of the administration and main stream media follow FDD. They have been wrong every day since this started. When you want to know what is really going on Ryan, Jeremy and the team at DropSite are on top of it.

Not my job to advise people who work in capital or commodity markets, but I would suggest adding Drop Site to your diet if you want to know what’s going on