Cameron Research

@KK_Investing Do you have any clues for which ones are still being sold? Is it the ones from their YouTube Channel minus the prior deal?

$ccoi existing data centers are more valuable then market is pricing in, especially if there is a change in the fall in the house or 2 yrs from now at the executive branch 🤷🏾‍♂️

@snapcallcapital @ACapitalLP I'm considering the capital leases to go with the business, more like PP&E. So that leaves ~$1.7B in debt. Plausibly: 38M IPv4 x $35/each = $1.3B. Then data centers maybe $350m + slight excess cash. Yeah it's optimistic but not implausible.

@Cameron_Invest @ACapitalLP Which of their non-core assets cover debt? Datacenters will sell for $500M post-tax in a DREAM scenario against $2.6B debt. Whole story hinges on wavelength growth, which disappoints each quarter hence the stock price.

What are the most asymmetric opportunities you see right now? Looking for true “lose $1 to make $5” setups…

@jaysyoon I have worked on this one so much, and want to like it. The UK is so f-ed structurally on housing. I know they *must* fix it but I can't exactly see the way forward

At first glance, looks like $VTY $VTY.L trading at 0.3x BV now. Seems like there could be some value here? Can anyone out there give me a quick summary of why or why not this is a Buy here?

@blindspotvalue When they started doing healthcare a decade ago, they started paying much bigger multiples so less room for error.

$DHR what are thoughts here? Seems like M&A strategy has been less succesful in Healthcare (e.g. Aldevron) vs Industrials, end markets not co-operating, and possible business model issues (vs $TMO integrated model) surfacing in new end markets? What am I missing?

@kiwicarrotcake It can't be a bagel. Asset value is worth way more than the debt. Could be scrapped for parts and get >$20 per share

added more $CCOI <11.3 bagel possibility, sure.

@BuffDawgg Just left a comment on your Substack about a concern I have regarding the unusual mechanics of this in terms of ex dividend date

$GRVY trades at sub 1x EBIT despite a loaded pipeline, aligned insiders at the majority shareholder, and a dividend that disproves the cash hoarding narrative. Backed by ample cash and a beloved IP, a meaningful payout should close the gap to dividend-paying peers. Link in bio!

@KK_Investing Why did people expect the refi to already be done? It was clearly communicated they were going to repurchase 2032s first. That takes a minute

$ccoi has 20% of their shared shorted... Wowzers

@KK_Investing It's going to eventually squeeze like crazy.

@GoodHouseCap @Zerosumgame33 Who has good write ups on FWRD? Looks interesting

@Zerosumgame33 $CLMT been amazing and feels like just getting started. Congrats. Wish I bought more Looking at that criteria, first other name I thought of was $CCOI, with $FWRD close behind 👀

$CLMT checks every single box.

@ragingbullcap Since you've done telcos, I'm pounding the table on CCOI. Inflection story. Massive fallow asset value protecting downside. Delevering misunderstood by markets. Incredibly smart CEO. Optionality on growth market. Full (free) write up on SS if you like it.

$ZEG.L Looks extremely asymmetric me again after this recent decline. EV is ~€7B. €3.63B of FY26 revenue and €763m OCF (21% margin). Path to OCF of €1B in a few years is reasonably clear: - €60-70m of tower saving (see OP) - €20m of spectrum savings - meaningful room for further cost efficiencies through e.g. reduced retail costs (smaller lease footprint). Hundreds of initiatives in progress internally - Low single digit annual topline growth: healthy market growth in Spain, increased handset subsidies (churn reduction), Satco opportunities, reduced competitive intensity. 3% annual growth for 2 years = ~+€200m revenue at high incremental margin. At this level of sales, €1B OCF is a 25% margin - reasonable. Completely ignores Ranco prospects (very significant if achieved). €1B at 11x (below peers) is ~£25/share after management incentive. Ignores value of retained fiberco stakes. Meanwhile, interest expense now down to €170m. No cash taxes due to NOLs. €600-800m FCF to equity, large chunk of to be returned. Yield goes from ~16%-21%. Altogether, clear path to €30/share of value (>100% upside) within a couple years with little discernible risk and highly aligned and effective management. 🤷‍♂️

@MikeFritzell Because every drug has a terminal value of 0. So normal multiple heuristics don't apply. Have learned this the hard way over the years.

13x EV/EBIT, new blockbuster product in oral GLP-1, ramping up capacity, recent earnings beat - how is Novo Nordisk not a buy here?

@Procorian Announcement of additional data center sales for $150m+ could do it.

Is there anything that can make $CCOI go up??

@NerdcapK CCOI is absolutely in the market every day now buying the 2032 notes, which is exactly what they said they were going to do before refinancing the 2027s. No idea why everyone is selling everyday

An update on the execution of this transaction would be swell. $CCOI

@RecurveCapital @__MattLindsay PS I cited some of your work/podcast appearances in a recent Substack post where I tried to quantify absolute worst cast for Cogent. I appreciate the work you've done. Painful to watch, but there is so much upside here

It was pretty stable recently until Q1. Principal payments on capital leases are IRU payments for dark fiber. Generally not for the long haul Sprint network since they got off the Lumen IRU last year, but there may be metro DF or intl DF in there that can be lumpy from time to time as they onboard new POPs.

$CCOI's deal today was below my estimated value, but still quite positive for the balance sheet and credit story. Based on feedback today, these 10 facilities had annualized costs of $7m/year. If we run these proceeds through Cogent's playbook that I wrote about here (x.com/RecurveCapital…), leverage will declined by about 0.9x (lower debt and higher EBITDA from lower opex) and FCF will improve by at least $20m/year (lower opex + interest savings as they repurchase 6.5% notes). This should really help the equity going forward. Next step is the consents/amendments from bondholders which has been in motion for many weeks already, hopefully it won't be too long until we see that come through. Once the refi of the 2027s is done, Cogent will have years of runway before its next refi. By then, it won't matter anyway - they will be on much firmer footing. I am skeptical that 100% of the remaining facilities will sell (especially the ones <1 MW), but Fort Worth is the biggest one and probably the crown jewel of the whole portfolio to most buyers. I think an outcome in the $100-200 million range would be very positive, especially for EBITDA and FCF. Lower opex, more cash on the balance sheet. I am sure Cogent was reluctant to enter other LOIs until this deal went definitive since any of these 10 could have been bundled with the remaining 14 to make other deals. I would expect some pretty quick movement on the most attractive remaining DCs. I tried to map out what could happen as they make progress on all these fronts, starting from Q1 results and going through year-end, assuming they sell another $150M of DCs and get some on net growth driving EBITDA, plus additional synergies. In the end, this is step 1 in a journey toward lower leverage levels, but I'm not particularly interested in a distressed equity becoming non-distressed (although those situations generate good returns). We need the growth story to kick in for it to be a great story going forward.

@RecurveCapital @__MattLindsay Since we are picking Aaron's brain today as we sweat the CCOI ticker, Aaron can I ask whether you think their IRU leases will go down over the next few years as they run more traffic across the Sprint fiber and let some finance leases expire?

@Jay_BarleyX @NotA_Bull CCOI? Explain please. Their core business is still growing fine. They can deleverage by selling non core assets. There is no major threat to the long term need for fiber internet.

Would not be surprised if this occurred to $CCOI, $ALIT, or $INTU. Plus, many of these REITS struggling to find buyers, have low occupancy—not to mention all the tenant contract negotiation that is not benefiting them will be delisted. Also, these closed-end debt funds [and ETFs] that are experiencing exits and redemptions.

What is a stock you are 100% convinced will be worth $0 by 2030?

Reading UK annual reports, I'm amused at how everything is a 'scheme' rather than a 'plan.' Do Europeans not know that American hear the word 'scheme' negatively? Maybe it's appropriate since every 'scheme' in Europe is a bureaucratic nightmare.

@NerdcapK @blindspotvalue @arada32111 I just don't understand why you're so worried about solvency. Selling the data centers and the ipv4 book (both non-core) could fully wipe out the debt. That's not the optimal strategy, but could do it in a pinch.

@blindspotvalue @arada32111 $ccoi is the low cost producer vs $lumn. The question is can Cogent stay solvent long enough for waves to scale. I don't think anyone would be happier than Lumen if Cogent were to go out of business.

cogentco.com/en/about-cogen… $CCOI debt refi/reduction story with a positive incremental data point on the closing here.. still unsure about waves growth trajectory error bars given price may not be the main factor in potentially taking share vs $LUMN and Zayo (which I just wrote up in last 24 hours).

@blindspotvalue @_Idea_Lab I got some feedback today from a data center dude who said cogent would never be in his facility because he used to work for a hurricane electric (cogent has an infamous peering dispute with them). Does anyone think this could be a more widespread issue?

@_Idea_Lab Yeah the other explanations definitely make sense and could be driving the negative revisions.. still the big question of how big the TAM for $CCOI could be the other piece tied to all this and is tough to know in terms of how much market share is actually up for grabs.