Bobo the Fin Twit

@ArrakisGlobal Beyond px action, what signals are you looking for here?

Are semis / AI trade trading weakly telegraphing a potential plateau in AI capex? Maybe. Its interesting that $MSFT $AMZN $META have been behaving better amidst this selloff... that trade could be coiled... am waiting for price to really confirm it.

Some thoughts on where we are in the market / AI trade / commodities. It looks all but over for precious metals trade. I have been tactically short a few of the gold miners and really feel like pressing this trade. $B $RGLD $FNV $AEM

I live in NOWASQUAPA

@atelicinvest This is excellent research (had not followed the story beforehand). Obviously a completely different market structure but there are certainly echoes of COMP/ZG here. Interesting how two totally diff markets have trended towards a similar endpoint (coming soon / pre listing).

It's fascinating. I've received multiple responses on this - way more than what I expected, or the views would suggest - like 15% of tweet viewers messaged me - all of them who are familiar with the situation. And it ranges from 'this is total shit and all wrong, i might as well not read this' to 'this is amazing and accurate what did you do to get this' I appreciate the harsh responses btw - perhaps even more than the effusive ones. At this early stage, any feedback on how it can be better is worth its weight in gold. But it shows the difficulty of producing research in the age of AI.

@edels0n Meta did not say they overbuilt man. They specifically did that to signal to investors that they are willing to monetize, and to be prepared for an ungodly high Capex number in 2027, because their conviction in the buildout is that much higher

OpenAI and Anthropic account for an estimated 60-80% of the AI revenues generated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Without them, this whole thing collapses. And OpenAI just told us they need government support. Uhhh … that's not good? 👇

@modestproposal1 Where is this from?

The percentage of people outside of the very very small AI aware world who know that a reasonable percentage of those inside the AI aware world believe this to be true is close to zero

@patrick_oshag @jeremygiffon Interesting that I had my most visceral reaction to this pod of nearly anything I've listened to recently. Probably because I've been a staunch rejector of becoming a "poster". This made me stop to think if that rejection is a very poor decision.

My second conversation with @jeremygiffon. His first episode became one of the most popular we've ever done. Since then he's become a friend I talk to every day, so this is a taste of one of those conversations. We discuss: - The billion dollar PDF - Why billionaires have become subservient to the "poaster" class - The philosophers who secretly shaped Silicon Valley - Lessons from the last 18 months in private markets - East v. West coast finance - Buffett + beating the market - and much more Enjoy! 0:00 Intro 5:50 The Billion Dollar PDF 11:31 Algorithms and Power Laws 20:28 Peak Guy 31:19 Opting Out of the Timeline 36:14 AI and White-Collar Jobs 43:31 The Next Era of Finance 53:56 The New Economics of Software 1:03:22 Underwriting Emerging Managers 1:18:17 Silicon Valley’s Hidden Philosophy

@eric_seufert @fivepointscap This is clearly not the AI monetization strategy, but it definitely doesn't hurt to roll out features that can *potentially* add another $10B of revenue to pay for some of these GWs.

@eric_seufert @fivepointscap From my cursory understanding, the subscription features (fb/insta/wa plus) are extra, not core, which may limit penetration but should prevent any cannibalization. The AI subscriptions seem like a separate strategy (more akin the ChatGPT plus, etc).

Meta announced Instagram / Facebook Plus in January has been testing them since March. If these products are moving into GA, the conversion rate must be at least somewhat promising. Beyond the revenue opportunity, which isn’t material if you imagine the company does ~$240BN in ad revenue in 2026, I imagine Meta is feeling pressure to find an obvious example of monetizing consumer AI use. I think they could find a better and more compelling argument from the advertising angle if they could improve their storytelling capacity there. But Zuckerberg seems unwilling to champion that, so yet another subscription is offered (Meta Verified is the existing subscription that, curiously, remains separate from this).

@eric_seufert @fivepointscap Fair enough - just view 4 additional points to growth as not immaterial. I'm not sure this would be cannibalistic of any ads efforts and is all incremental? Unless I'm missing something.

Let’s say this *new* subscription product does $10BN in 2026 — a staggering achievement, unprecedented, especially considering Meta already has a subscription product. That’s 4% of ~$240BN in 2026 ad revenue. Immaterial. Snap is not a useful comparison. Snap has increasingly baked core functionality into the subscription *because* their ad product underperforms, incentivizing its adoption. Meta would *lose money* by incentivizing the subscription in that way at the current price.

@eric_seufert @fivepointscap It can be $5 - 10B (not $30 - 40) over time which is material! Look to Snap subscription penetration and adjust Meta DAUs for regional differences to get to a rough estimate.

No, you’d need to bring far more support for that argument than you provide here. Meta already has a subscription product, Meta Verified. And its subscription product in Europe has less than a 1% subscription rate. $30-40BN in annual subscription revenue is an indefensible estimate.

@TheStalwart @benthompson would be very sad to hear you describe ads as a huge deadweight loss on the economy :(

Clip

NEW ODD LOTS: It's Stripe co-founder and President John Collison @tracyalloway and I talk to @collision about agentic commerce, how it will reshape the internet, and whether we'll still have ads and scrolling in a world where bots are doing the shopping. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

@ArrakisGlobal Also, the world's best e-commerce operator who also happens to be extraordinarily well capitalized has said they want to win market share in Brazil and signaled they are willing to invest a boatload to do it....numbers are not bottoming...mkt has known this

@bobothefintwit Bingo. The price has signalled this for a while. The mkt always knows… $MELI

I see an insane amount of brain damage on my feed regarding $MELI Its hilarious to me, and a complete waste of time. This stock has just consistently failed to properly break new convincing highs since the ecommerce top in ‘21 (same with $CPNG and $SE) people

@ArrakisGlobal Interesting read as a fundaamentals guy.... and It's also a fundamental short...a company that needs to dramatically compress margins every 1.5 years should not trade at 40x P/E, particularly one that has significant EM exposure and generates half of its earnings from lending!

$MELI when stocks shift their ownership base its always going to be painful. E-com has been like that for some time. Shareholder base shifts from growth to quality and then finally… value! And thats the nail in the coffin ⚰️ Do yourself a favour ignore and look elsewhere! ✌🏼

@CoorsLightCEO Totally agree this would be good but regulators have failed every step of the way w socials. Just look at meta revs. It's so good for engagement, revenue which means it's good for their defenders in dc

@bobothefintwit Think that’s why it’s hard to actually do anything. Would push for digital watermarks on social media platforms

If I was a policy maker, I might get a little paternalistic when it comes to AI video generation. 0 positives, a shitload of negatives for society. Shouldn’t have to doubt every single thing you see on the internet. and it only gets worse from here

@tylermacro10 Intern forgot to press button

I know I have a lot of smart followers, can someone explain to me how trumps second post—asking Iran to open the strait as they promised Fits with his first saying now all ships (importantly including Iran) are blocked?

@tylermacro10 Nothing can stop the dip buyers

@bobothefintwit I do t think there will be one

There is v little evidence the global economy was slowing before Lehman

@atelicinvest So who is Iovine?

@bobothefintwit Amodei is probably Brian Eno.

Electronic music production is a really good parallel to study if you want to understand consumption psychology of AI.

@atelicinvest This is so incredibly correct

You now have a guy in a bedroom who's able to make hit music being listened to by many But also a hoard of ppl who are delusional that they too can do it And a whole ecosystem built around selling these ppl the ability to larp Anyone can pretend to be a music producer by buying loops and presets There's more slop music than ever The quality of music doesn't really matter nearly as much as ppl think in being successful Tastemakers - DJs - being a pretty powerful force in the industry despite many of them never producing music Cost of production and distribution down to zero but yet there are lots of ways to make money in the industry Etc etc lots of parallels.