MisterGoomba

@DavidAM_1998 @diazmarg @BryanWinsAgain @TomSteyer @TomHQ Same here 😆

@diazmarg @BryanWinsAgain @TomSteyer @TomHQ Thank you! Open your DM requests please, it won’t let me lol

Can I get a signed Class Traitor hat? 🥹 @TomSteyer @TomHQ

@diazmarg @BryanWinsAgain @TomSteyer @TomHQ Me too if available please 🥺

@BryanWinsAgain @TomSteyer @TomHQ yes! we got you

@Valantina888 @LeftyWinter 4-5 so pretty soon but they've usually been late 4:40ish

@LeftyWinter Will there be more drops in Los Angeles tonight?

Steyer is flipping these counties in North California that Becerra was holding. It seems they are going more and more for Steyer. This is a very good sign for him.

@wedgewoodpol @VoteHub You should just keep responding to every single one of Votehub's like this, and if it gets called, "horrible drop for Steyer"

@VoteHub I’m just about ready to stop the bit

Mariposa County 6/8 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 71 (30.1%, -3.4%) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 47 (19.9%, +4.5%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 42 (17.8%, +1.8%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 31 (13.1%, -11.5%)

@tedlieu ...?

I endorsed Xavier Becerra. That’s why I hope Republican Steve Hilton remains in the top two. The latest vote updates show Hilton will likely beat Steyer.

@v63sfx @ohgoditsmatthew It's not like Becerras gonna lose anyways it's California for gods sake ffs

@ohgoditsmatthew How very Republican of you.

I’m gonna be leaving the Governor question blank in November. In good conscience, I can’t vote for Xavier Becerra. He’ll become our de facto governor when the race gets certified — likely with artificial record support because of a Blue Wave election.

hi @TomSteyer, i really enjoyed meeting you and was excited to vote for you. it seems like it's not gonna play out (which sucks), but a thing you could do is start some sort of fund for left and progressive media creators and artists to combat right/center ideological capture.

@Ms_LilShadow @Mikeherman44459 And if Hilton advanced they are gonna freak about all of the projections immediately saying Becerra advances even though it's predictable from the start lmfao

@Mikeherman44459 That's because the presidential election usually isn't that tight or close so they can do projections as to who's going to win surely you know this already?

Amazing how they can count a presidential election in one night, but takes them a month to count a mayoral and or governor’s race. I hope the US AG gets involved in the shenanigans in the boating in California. Ballots keep trickling in…from where?

@bbbccc94 @MayTheSchwartz7 @ohgoditsmatthew I think if Steyer's gains in SF/SB/Bay dwindle and CV gets worse, it'll probably be called

@MayTheSchwartz7 @ohgoditsmatthew Callable after the next drop?

STOP GIVING US STEYER BROS HOPE 😩

@AustinHoney30 He's gotta pull out the most insane numbers tomorrow if I have a chance as having hope 😟

Steyer's hitting his benchmarks in big counties but he needs to be hitting them and then some to offset his poor results in the Central Valley. Not feeling good

@VoteHub San Benito you were late by three hours 😭😭😭

San Benito County 6/5 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 1,088 (32.0%, +5.7%) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 874 (25.7%, -2.2%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 660 (19.4%, +2.1%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 426 (12.5%, -3.4%)

@sdsid1780 @ElliscbIV Possibly. That's why it isn't callable yet.

@ElliscbIV I noticed that these drops are noticeably bluer than yesterday…. Could he improve on the margins starting today???

Not the Orange County drop the Steyer campaign wanted. Luckily for him, the Santa Clara drop was just strong enough to limit the damage. The race isn’t callable just yet, but he’s running out of runway.

@smomwetgobam @ZacharyDonnini Think he means Steyer needed to perform 17 points higher, but only is performing 15 points higher right now.

@ZacharyDonnini Wait it’s down?

Steyer got solid numbers today in three of his better late-vote counties, but still only outran Hilton compared to 6/2 numbes by 16.7 points in aggregate. This morning, he likely needed closer to 17.2 points the rest of the way.

@nvkeflorida @_alex_joshua Yep! Could only drop it off after I was finished with most of my studying for finals week.

@_alex_joshua Renters and young people are absolutely the type to mail their ballots late. The left wing coalition is Lower propensity. You see the same shift in most progressive vs establishment elections in CA and WA.

I understand why late ballots are breaking towards Dems. What I genuinely don't understand is why Bass' percent is staying pretty consistent but Raman is surging. Raman's the progressive choice, and they don't seem like the ones to mail their ballots at the last minute.

@LeftyWinter The doomer in me is saying he'll get less of the vote than yesterday, but my heart and soul are saying he's going to surge today 💔 I don't know what to think

@bossbro146 He's making really good gains in LA & Santa Clara.

California updates today: • San Benito County (2 PM) •Los Angeles county (4-5 PM) •Orange County (4-5 PM) Santa Clara county (4-5 PM) • Yuba County (10 PM)

@m_schettig @ZacharyDonnini I just didn't say steyer bc it's like 1% of a Steyer v Hilton standoff lol

@bossbro146 @ZacharyDonnini Either Dem smokes Hilton but I think Becerra beats Steyer going away too.

CA Governor’s Race: Where things stand At this point, I view Steve Hilton to be clearly favored. The cleanest way to frame the race is this: if VoteHub’s current turnout estimates are right, and if late mail in every county keeps breaking the way it has so far, Steyer would win the remaining ballots by 4.2 points. This would still leave Hilton winning by 2.0 points, with a roughly 192,000-vote margin. Steyer needs to win the remaining trail by 11.1 points to catch him. There are reasons to think the trail could keep improving for Steyer. In major counties with at least 20,000 mail ballots counted, his day-to-day improvement against Hilton has generally moved left: Los Angeles: +13.3, +15.3, +18.7 San Diego: +13.2, +16.7 Orange: +10.0, +11.4, +8.4 San Bernardino: +5.7, +2.7 Riverside: -1.2, +4.7, +2.2 Santa Clara: +13.8, +15.0, +16.0 San Francisco: +15.2, +19.2 Solano: +9.5, +10.0, +10.2 San Mateo: +14.7, +15.2 So yes, the trail is generally getting better for Steyer. But it is not getting better fast enough in the major counties to make it easy to believe the remaining vote will be 7 points bluer than what we have seen over the last few days. Our current fairway estimate does assume some continued leftward movement. Even then, Steyer wins the rest of the trail by about 6.7 points, which would still leave Hilton ahead by 1.4 points. So how did Steyer get into this position? He is doing well in the trail San Diego, Los Angeles County, and the Bay Area. But he is struggling almost everywhere else. The biggest weakness for Democrats, including Steyer, has been in the Central Valley and Inland Empire. That was somewhat expected in the early vote, given that these are heavily Hispanic areas where Biden performed well in 2020 but where Democrats slipped in 2024. But the late-mail trail has also been weaker than Democrats needed, and when it has improved, much of the gain has gone to Becerra rather than Steyer. Steyer is getting what he needed from his strongest regions, with the Bay Area and Los Angeles moving even further in his direction. But he is not getting enough from Hispanic-heavy areas, which means the big urban counties would have to shift unrealistically far left to make up the gap. The completed or nearly completed counties are also not especially encouraging for Democrats. Republicans are at 36.3% in Solano, which is almost fully reported, compared to Trump’s 33.7% there in 2020. In Kings, Republicans are at 59.7%, compared to Trump’s 54.9% in 2020. That is limited data, but it suggests California may not be on track to match Biden-era Democratic margins across much of the state. It is hard to see Democrats matching Biden’s numbers in places like Kern if they are running closer to Harris in Kings. That said, primaries can produce weird turnout effects. Democrats really need the more white, liberal parts of the state, which Solano and Kings are not, to show extremely strong late Democratic turnout. For Steyer, that means tomorrow’s numbers likely need to move meaningfully left: Los Angeles above 20, Orange closer to 15, Santa Clara around 18, and similar improvements elsewhere. Why does Steyer still have a chance? Because California late mail can be volatile, and the remaining vote in the biggest urban counties with more White liberals could still get substantially bluer. Turnout isn't certain. Steyer would love some eventual turnout in blue areas to be higher than my estimates right now, but it isn't likely. But the core issue remains: Steyer is not doing well enough in the trail outside places like San Francisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Los Angeles. And we have a couple completed counties coming in where it doesn't look great for Dems. He still has a path, but it is narrow, and Hilton remains clearly favored. One note on turnout estimates: Giving it a glance, VoteHub’s current estimate is a mix of DDHQ and the AP. We are closer to DDHQ in assuming roughly 40,000–50,000 more outstanding Alameda ballots than AP, while we are closer to AP on total expected turnout, at about 9.56 million statewide.

@m_schettig @ZacharyDonnini Becerra would have a lot more of a harder time beating Steyer, while Becerra would absolutely smoke Hilton.

@ZacharyDonnini My biggest question is does any of this actually matter or does Becerra just very easily beat either of these guys in November?

@queenspamala @electionsjoe + they could go to Bianco right? I mean it's mostly in red counties, it could happen since he hasn't really lost/gained on his %.

@electionsjoe The good news is the Hispanic/rural ones are pretty sparse compared to what’s in LA, SF, Marin, Alameda and SD. And apparently OC hasn’t reported Dropbox votes yet?

I have a hard time imagining Steyer improving in Hispanic/Rural areas. I think he will continue to do well and even improve in the urban, but it probably won't be enough.

@LeftyWinter Lowkey you can connect all three as being the same 🤣

My time line is filled with thirst traps, California elections & Graham Platner. LMFAO.