Brad Watson

@_fat_ugly_rat_ @DHNguyen01 How close is that ok district in ok county?

@DHNguyen01 That wasn't my intention I was just drawing what I felt was fair, compact, and had good COI but it ended up with a lot of competitive districts just by the nature of the maps being fair

Trump Districts: 218 Harris Districts: 217 Trump >10 Districts: 173 Harris >10 Districts: 162

@SeanTrende @jaycost @aei_STpodcast Nice! (And meant B for Harrison, not Hayes)

@bradewatson @jaycost @aei_STpodcast I think this isn't far off what we got.

Well folks, @jaycost and I just finished grading Presidents Lincoln thru McKinley for @aei_STpodcast. And, well, any former students who think we grade to hard should see what we've done to our Chief Executives. Tune in next week!

@davidshor @BetterScotus @SeanTrende In what recent years did Rs win the House, where they wouldn't have under your preferred reforms?

@BetterScotus @SeanTrende I was born in 1991 but Dems did some messed up stuff in the 80's/90's in the south for sure. That said, this was the popular vote margin in the House in the 80's: 1980: D+2.7 1982: D+11.9 1984: D+5.1 1986: D+9.9 1988: D+7.8

First, you can't really ban gerrymandering, you can only cabin it. And that only works if you have precise, quantifiable measures with crisp cutoffs. No weighing, no multi-factor tests, etc. Just something like "no splitting counties or municipalities more than necessary." 1/

@SeanTrende @jaycost And Van Buren: I blame for: censoring abolitionists, Amistad, carrying out Trail of Tears, his bank policies, presiding over great depression of 19th century, seminole war, rejecting TX. As president, no obvious counter-balancing accomplishments. So I argue F Tier.

@SeanTrende @jaycost Appreciate response! Pierce, I just choose be maximally harsh for Kansas-Nebraska (like you w adams and sedition). Jefferson: think you are averaging something like a .350 batting average in first term and .200 in second. While I average 475 and .225 to get still great .350 BA

We cover the lion's share of these presidents in our podcast this week!

@SeanTrende 4) thought you made case for lower grade for jq adams than you gave 5) would put both Van Buren and Pierce in the F tier. Buchanan, Pierce, Van Buren 3 worst presidents, that order, IMHO. 6) think Tyler's importance is pretty underrated, given his role in Texas admission.

@SeanTrende Great episode. Thoughts: 1) Think John Adams deserves more credit for Marshall appointment. 2) Jefferson is S Tier for LA Purchase. As much credit as he gets for that, he is still not getting enough imo. 3) I'd give Monroe an A, mostly for Adams-Onis.

@SeanTrende @Hollywi81 @IndyVoter2 @jaycost That is great.

@Hollywi81 @IndyVoter2 This is something @jaycost and I are working on for a larger project.

Historian rankings of presidents, 1948 Life Magazine. It's like they took a reasonable ranking of presidents and then added a randomizer to it.

@SeanTrende i feel that way about current rankings also.

@_fat_ugly_rat_ 2000s compared to 90s?

Even then, there are serious arguments to be made that the 70s were equal to or better than the 60s but I think pretty much everybody is in agreement that the 2020s are looking like theyll be a good bit worse than the 2010s

The 2020s are shaping up to be a significantly worse decade than the 2010s were, even if we somehow avoid a recession. This is probably the first time a decade was significantly worse than its preceding one since like... the 70s?

@SeanTrende @ptonlaw Also your point about the D Senate majority made me look up the 34 senate election results. Wow!

@SeanTrende @ptonlaw Honestly I feel like one of the underexplained issues of American history is why the filibuster did not stop a lot more legislation prior to the 1990s.

People are going to react strongly to this comparison, so I really do mean this narrowly. But when you read about first 100 days of the New Deal, you hear about Congress just being totally overwhelmed with new legislation and orders, things being broken or rebuilt every day. 1/

@myster_E_23 Honestly 2022 also.

Assumed to be headed towards extinction, this year ticket-splitters were like:

@SeanTrende Is it your sense GOP wins house popular vote margin by more than what prez popular margin ends up being?

With Ciscomani falling behind in AZ-06, Rs now lead in 222 seats to Ds 213.

@yesh222 What is your guess on what final margin ends up?

By the end of the night tomorrow (almost certainly by the end of the weekend), Trump will be under 50% in the popular vote. He's still going to win it, of course. But it will be a plurality victory, not a majority.

@binarybits Amen.

There’s a saying in politics: if you are explaining, you’re losing. Every four years, California’s system puts public confidence in our democracy on the bad side of that aphorism for no good reason.

This dumb, misleading chart is everywhere. It is not evidence of fraud, it’s a sign that western states have a very slow vote counting process. Nevertheless, I bet this chart has done a ton of damage to public confidence in elections and western states should knock it off.

@myster_E_23 Michigan?

Feeling pretty good about McCormick given Cambria will boost him, but man this WI race could go either way.

@myster_E_23 hell yes

Don Bacon has taken a lead!!!!!!