Blocks retweetledi
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.
A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.
11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵
1. Survivorship Bias:
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Blocks
108 posts
Blocks
@brickcities
“The Thing About The Old Days: They The Old Days.”
Hamsterdam Katılım Mayıs 2010
3.2K Takip Edilen131 Takipçiler
$GO.U residential acquiring 3 more New York City properties by issuing units at full NAV (currently $23.70 v. $10.60 today's trading price or $15 July 2025 IPO price.) Insiders hold 42% of it and added $23 million since IPO.
Chris in Canada 🍁@tsxman
Updated CIBC #REIT guide for resi. Newly listed $GO.U looking like the most attractive residential name to me now as it sold off post IPO likely on the Mamdani fears w/ wide institutional/insider buying at $15 (IPO price). 6.5% implied cap, ~$940k/unit in NYC's Upper East Side.
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$BAM / $BAM.TO bought back a few shares but the share buyback looks like a joke as it should be given high valuation but enough to get the fanboys excited. A Canadian cult favourite that still looks crazy expensive relative to other options. Could be wrong but curious.
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Seeing a lot of high multiple stocks get hammered when the narrative changes. No interest in software (nor knowledge) but why does $BAM justify such a lofty valuation say relative to $DRM.TO which has a large asset management as well? How is it cheap? Why shouldn't it fall more?
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Congrats to publicly-traded $TAO treasury co @xtaohq
taodaily.io/off-the-chain-…
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Berkshire's Cash Pile Hits A Record $382 Billion Amid Continued Stock Sales As T-Bill Purchases Soar zerohedge.com/markets/berksh…
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$MRC.TO George Armoyan / G2S2 added another $218,000 (filed today). Bought over $13 million worth this year. Almost no liquidity left. Should prob be buying that one too as it is the cheapest real estate name on the TSX. Question is whether they can force Angela-Rai Sahi's hand.
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Took a trip today to tour Morguard's Place Innovation in Montréal's aviation focused technoparc. Nearly 1mmsf. Impressive complex w/ a soon to be built light rail station on its property. Has own baseball court, badminton with sand & a natural mediation creek. $MRC.TO $MRT.UN
Saint-Laurent, Montréal 🇨🇦 English
@LoveMy7Wood @Rogers @TELUS @TD_Canada This is Canada’s silent productivity killer. It’s a part time job managing through terrible customer service and wait times from all public and private providers.
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I wish there was a way I could charge @rogers @telus and @TD_Canada among others for the countless hours I have wasted in the past few months being on hold, waiting to speak with an actual human being on issues their automated systems can't address. To them my time has no value.
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@javel878 Great chart same big gap fill happening for $UNH @CRInvestor
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$AX.UN's CEO Samir Manji added $344,500 worth of common units on the pullback. Others insiders have added common and prefs as well. Seems like a vote of confidence on the forthcoming deal.
Chris in Canada 🍁@tsxman
Buy $AX.UN before the re-rate as a growth bank? Artis trading very cheaply today and out of favor. As a liquidation story you could likely make a lot of money recyling capital which is their go-forward plan. Samir Manji, Ben Rodney/RFA, both smart and highly aligned insiders here
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Anybody following $HOT.UN? One of the last real estate names still hitting 52-week lows. In 2024 I cautioned it could go to zero and thus it nearly has. But they are in liquidation mode now it seems with almost no public equity value left. Insiders were buying plus an NCIB.
Chris in Canada 🍁@tsxman
@athelascapital @cap_zay $HOT.UN is too risky for me and I think there is way better/lower risk opportunities in the space elsewhere. In my opinion the risk of the common equity ending up as worthless is high given their senior liabilities & still worsening fundamentals.
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@KilconaVC @ShaziGoalie @ronmortgageguy $AX.TO Fund liquidations/forced selling creates a long term buying opportunity if ~10%-12% cap for the office assets. Hate the current lack of disclosure but RFA are sharp investors and an agree w/ @ronmortgageguy its a big upgrade in asset quality for investors who hang on
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@ShaziGoalie @ronmortgageguy Nearly a billion dollars lost when chop shop coordinates hostile takeover of Artis Reit and has now driven nail in the coffin of the stock by merging Toronto based private lender with the listing. Which changes the business and forces a mass exodus of fund liquidations.
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It’s not just condos.
Private lenders across the GTA are getting destroyed. Banks are starting to feel it too and the bad outcomes are spreading into other corners of the market.
The problems run much deeper than anyone wants to admit.
🔗 Check @ronmortgageguy YouTube video for the full clip.
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@NonObviously Can $hr.un potential acquirer sell (or slowly liquidate) the office assets? Office market is better but that’s a lot of risk for any group to take unless at deeply discounted prices. That said market is improving by the day.
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Assuming $hr.un:
If no deal=$10/unit
If deal=$14/unit
At current market price of $11.30/unit, market is pricing 67% likelihood deal does not happen.🤔
I kinda like those odds.🤷🏻♂️
TSX Dividends@TSXDivStock
Yesterday $HR.UN dropped on no news? There may be loose lips at H&R....recall on July 4 the REIT was forced to disclose the special committee only after 'market speculation.' H&R REIT Confirms Special Committee Process to Consider Strategic Alternatives prn.to/40x5S8T
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@joshlacey33 @TidefallCapital Respectfully I don’t pay too much attention to the projections from VL. It’s a great snapshot at a point in time. There has been material historical growth and cashflow, a low PE, and share reductions. There seems to be good downside protection. Time will tell.
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@brickcities @TidefallCapital not exactly. that timberland page, the co. was forecasted to grow earnings 25% in the current year 15% in the following year, and 80% out to the 3-5 year forecast. does not sound like the street was pessimistic and also doesn't sound like current crox setup
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Timberland was at 9x here and the street was very pessimistic... $CROX!
"Just recently the primary driver of top-line growth is now falling short of expectations. Timberland has fallen behind in new product launches. We have reduced our sales projections and earnings estimates."
Finding Compounders@F_Compounders
During his lecture at Columbia Business School, Li Lu talks about his Timberland Investment. He made 600% in 2 years!! He handed out this Value Line page to the students, this is the page that got him interested in Timberland.
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@NonObviously @CDInewsletter Will now be in the quiet period. Would like to see if NCIB purchases continue (assuming they can under the AA. Good sign if they do but either way would prefer the banking assets to the existing office assets.
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@CDInewsletter I'll try:
- 2 major insiders already own 39% of $AX.Un units, each at 19%, buying more goes over 20% takeover threshold
- Arrangement Agreement only filed Sep 24, so blacked out before then?
- vote approving deal not a slam dunk, does insiders buying more affect voting outcome?
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If Artis REIT $AX.un is really up to some genius plan that the rest of the market doesn't get with the RFA deal, why haven't we seen insider buying here?
Insiders have sat on their hands with shares down ~20% since the transaction was announced.
That's telling, IMO.
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨
JD VANCE :“ I'm happy to talk to Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats about premium support for the Affordable Care Act, but only after they've reopened the government. ”
I smell a partial extension.
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Hey @BillSimmons think it might be time for you to have @PabloTorre on again to talk about how he's not a journalist?
- Dan
Pablo Torre Finds Out@pablofindsout
Exclusive: Kawhi Leonard signed a $28M endorsement deal for a "no-show job" with a fraudulent tree-planting company funded by $50M from Clippers owner Steve Ballmer, according to documents obtained by @PabloTorre. "It was to circumvent the salary cap," an inside source says.
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His investment philosophy centered on what he called "scale economics shared."
These are businesses that become more valuable to customers as they grow larger.
Instead of keeping all the benefits for shareholders, these companies pass savings directly to customers.
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This man achieved 921% returns while the market made 117%.
He retired at 45 after making investors $2 billion.
Yet you've probably never heard of him because he refused every interview and turned away new money.
Here's Nick Sleep's secret to finding 100-baggers:🧵
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