Indigenous🇮🇳

1. Even in the most innocent times nobody in Punjab would believe the release & sudden withdrawal of ‘Satluj’ was without political motives. In this era of conspiracy theories, everybody seems to have their own ‘insight’ into this. The buzz in Punjab, headed for elections early next year, is: Who benefits the most from this controversy? Or who will it hurt the most? As it usually happens, one outcome leads to the other. #NationalInterest   2. The film, by focusing on just the man who investigated ‘fake’ encounters, is playing into a generation-old grievance. It will rekindle fresh anger with its revisionism. And, while ‘Satluj’ doesn’t blame any political party or individual politicians, we only know the demographic it’s bound to trigger the most — the relatively conservative sections of Jutt Sikhs, especially in rural constituencies.   3. Where might their vote go? The Akali Dal, which has traditionally owned this vote, has been on the ropes already. Remember, Amritpal Singh won the Tarn Taran/Khadoor Sahib seat. It’s unlikely the same voter, further angered by ‘Satluj’, will return to Akalis. And because this conservative mass will almost definitely not go to the Congress or AAP, there’s only one party that benefits.   4. Power in Punjab has rotated among 3 entrenched political forces: Congress, Akali Dal & AAP. The radicals are the fourth, if limited. Even to be a coalition partner the radicals will need Akalis to win a third of the seats. The Akalis, with their ‘believers’ vote split, can be driven to further marginalisation. AAP has to deal with anti-incumbency & attacks from the Sikh clergy. The Congress is fighting with itself. In this melee if the Hindu vote consolidates, BJP benefits.   5. Contrary to folklore, Punjab isn’t a Sikh state. The Sikhs, at 58%, are a majority, but Hindus at around 40% are significant. If the Sikh vote splits & the Hindus come together, the state could take an unimagined turn. Of the Sikhs, about 60% are Jutts. They form the bulk of the Akali, radical & anti-Congress vote. If more of it shifts to the radicals, it decimates Akalis & benefits AAP or Congress. The BJP wants to consolidate the Hindus as in Bengal & Assam.   6. Read #NationalInterest:theprint.in/national-inter… Watch #NationalInterest:    youtube.com/watch?v=ZtN183…