C. Cooter, Esq.

@9mmsmg Overseas by a mile

After my Richard Mille debacle I posted about, I decided I need my first big boy watch. The closest I come in that category is a Royal Oak offshore. I want a watch I can hand down. These all cost similarly. Which of these do you like the best? 1. Patek 5168G Aquanaut 2. AP royal oak chronograph in white gold. 3. Vacheron Constantin Overseas Tourbillon in stainless steel. 4. Rolex white gold Daytona with a meteorite dial. (Yes, I'm selling a few watches to partially fund this and be responsible)

@goodalexander @DeepDishEnjoyer Second this idea

@DeepDishEnjoyer You should buy QvR management corp, rebrand as Make It All Back Capital

as much as i would like to reply to every mad 400 follower tpot lowbie that is quote tweeting me i literally can't because you people probably brigaded me and reported my post so now twitter thinks im a spam bot and i'm alloted like 2 posts an hour

@Replicant_Cap @BigBreakfastLob Yeah their reverse dispersion trade must’ve had something to do with it

@BigBreakfastLob As a Vol fund I would imagine it probably had to do with the single name dispersion being at the highest in history

Benn Eifert's fund was mostly down in January, so any speculation of market-directional views is just naive (plus what do I know about non delta-ones?). And it is rather sad most of HFs blowup will never be written about unless it matters to systematic financial safety like LTCM.

@robbezdjian Dude your bet doesn’t make any sense at all. If a mispriced borrow rate is the key driver of your pnl on this trade, you should easily be able to show us that with numbers, 3rd grade maffs right? Decompose your pnl and show us the missing borrow

Notice: zero names or acceptance of bets, just anons funneling people into private Discords. For those who know me, you know I take complex “impossible” trades, simplify them, and use math (think counting cards) to beat them. There is an extremely simple mathematical and logical reason why I’m right. Hint: what would the time value of a call option have to be if Benn and the anons were right? Hint #2: it wouldn’t be a positive number. Anyone looking to outsmart me in the realm of 3rd grade math or logic is fucked. I was a 3rd grade math champion. (But I don’t like to brag.)

@robbezdjian Just put the borrow fees in the bag pls

@robbezdjian Brother the borrow fees are in the options. It’s in the forward. Your comparison is not apples to apples

Many of you will not like this comment, but it’s true. I knew Benn was not going to make it when he said (along with other useful idiots) that borrow fees are fully embedded in options. “No free lunch,” etc. They are not. And if anyone thinks otherwise, I am happy to embarrass them publicly with real-life trades. Challenge: we will compare shorting $SMST directly, with a current borrow fee of 90%, versus selling options on $SMST. Prediction: I will not have one taker. Regular joes: this is a good time to tag anyone who uses terms like convexity, gamma, theta, delta-neutral, vol surface, kurtosis, skew, second-order Greeks, tail-risk optimization, Sharpe maximization, and other Finance 304 college-course jargon. I will trade my account and my money live for the public. If they lose, they get the fuck off Twitter, and I will do the same. Anyone? No anons. Maximum emotional and reputational damage to the loser.

@DeepDishEnjoyer Oooof

heard they lost money on a 12 leg parlay on the eagles on kalshi the sports betting app pour one out for a homie

@Anakim_Dream @Dipper_pol

@Dipper_pol I hope you all realize this is the complete opposite of Talebs entire work. Grok it

Nassim Taleb explaining the math behind every trader who profits from fear The crowd overpays for tail risk that almost never resolves. The other side of that overpayment is where the money is. The post above is that exact trade running on Polymarket - selling No on extreme BTC dips at 99¢ and collecting the premium 1 hour from the man who built his career on this idea ↓

@GreenBeans80277 @CarlsonPro @bryan_johnson @KernelCo lol no

@CarlsonPro @bryan_johnson @KernelCo Experience does not have a central place from which it beams out attention like a lighthouse. Experience is decentralized (while also binded together). So the answer is that ego dissolution experienced the ego dissolution. No “who” experienced it.

> Self and other is a toggle switch in the brain > 5-MeO-DMT flipped mine > 100% decoupling from self > 150% tightening with others > Others felt like me for four weeks > First-in-human data Makes you wonder if "me" and "I" are illusions. Measured with @KernelCo

@punishedfounder Hey man can’t DM so sorry for asking here, but: what is up with the Cerebrolysin listed on peptaura? Based on the dosage/format it seems like it might be cortexin instead?

just reminded myself it's ok to block low iqs instead of allowing them to cortisolspike me the eternal struggle of the poaster

@OneHotCode1 It’s the damn canucks

people who say beeps instead of basis points deserve a special place in hell

@AbudBakri @AJA_Cortes What is actually best, oral or subq for epitalon/pinealon? I can’t decide between yourprotocol oral or Chinese subq … one is obviously cheaper

Khavinson created 6 drugs (more secretly) and >40 supplements, including: Pinealon, epithalon(endoluten), Vilon, thymogen, testagen, Ovagen, livagen. Never intended to be drugs I think these will have more of an effect on population with less risk than the peptides that most talk about today (bpc-157, tb500, GHK) The way I see them: these are “supplements” that actually work Is a supplement in an other country eligible to become a supplement in the U.S.? Ex: Ashwaganda is a “supplement” from India, that is treated as a supplement here

@options_insight VIX

Most traders hedge with the wrong instrument. They buy SPX puts when VIX should be traded, and VIX calls when SPX options make more sense. Same risk. Wrong expression. 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗩𝗜𝗫 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗕𝗢𝗢𝗞 shows how I decide whether risk should be expressed through VIX or through SPX options, how VIX beta shifts by regime, and why volatility products behave very differently depending on what is actually driving risk. VIX is not one signal. It is a bundle of forces. In two short videos, I walk through the decision logic I use to choose the correct hedge instead of defaulting to what feels safe. Comment "VIX" and I’ll send you both videos.

@Ksidiii Difference in urgency

One interview question I have asked in the past is this: Let’s say there’s an asset priced at $10 There’s $1M in flow that is looking to sell There’s $250k in flow that is looking to buy I think the asset will go to $12, why is that?

Everyone's sharing that "Long Degeneracy" article and nominating it for article of the year with 20m views. I just got around to reading it…overall, I get it. It's well written, emotionally resonant, and captures something real about generational anxiety. I like the author, I subscribe to their stuff… talented Quant. But nobody's pushing back, so let me while I watch my kids at the pool. My main pushback is this: the article is a suicide note dressed up as investment advice. I REFUSE to hand my agency to "the house." The moment you accept "the game is rigged so I might as well gamble," you've surrendered. You've quit on the process that actually works because someone convinced you it doesn't. There are no easy buttons. No shortcuts. No magic money options. There is only learning, sacrifice, and continual grit. It tells a generation they're prisoners. Then it sells them a lottery ticket and calls it freedom. Then it tells YOU to invest in the prison. That's not analysis. That's despair with a ticker symbol. The author spends 2000 words empathizing with young people as "prisoners" trapped by a broken economy… then tells you to invest in the platforms extracting fees from their desperation. "Long Coinbase, long DraftKings, long the casinos." Read that again. The thesis is: a generation is so economically desperate they're turning to gambling, most will lose, and YOU should profit by owning the house. You can't weep for the prisoners and then sell shares in the prison. Pick one. 4 points I want to make.... Pushback 1: "Closed" is doing a lot of work The claim that traditional wealth building is "closed, not difficult" is asserted, not proven. The boomer vs millennial wealth stat is misleading… it compares 65 year olds to 35 year olds. Of course boomers hold more wealth. They've been alive longer. Housing is brutal in coastal cities. But median home prices in most US metros are still accessible to dual income households. "Wages up 8% while housing doubled" has no timeframe and cherry picks the comparison. Real wages post 2020 have actually grown. Is it harder than it was? Yes. Is the game "fundamentally broken"? That's a much bigger claim requiring a much longer discussion. Pushback 2: Negative EV doesn't become rational just because you feel stuck The core logical move is: "if you're trapped anyway, a 5% chance of escape beats 100% certainty of stagnation." But gambling doesn't leave you "still stuck." It makes most participants actively worse off. That 5% moonshot comes paired with a 95% chance of losing your savings, your rent money, your runway. The author admits "most people lose" then hand waves it because gamblers "understand the odds." But understanding bad odds while taking them isn't rationality. It's emotional capitulation wearing economic language as a costume. This isn't a generation finding a path out. It's a wealth transfer mechanism moving money FROM desperate young people TO platform operators. Pushback 3: The article accidentally reveals the real problem The author admits social media has "repositioned the zeroth line" so people earning $150k feel poor. Admits the algorithm ensures "you never feel like you've arrived." Admits basic needs are met and there's "cognitive bandwidth" for existential questions. But wait. If the problem is FEELING trapped due to infinite upward comparison rather than BEING trapped… gambling doesn't fix that. You could 10x your net worth and the algorithm will still show you someone richer. The "Maslow trap" section accidentally confesses: this generation isn't imprisoned. They're dissatisfied. These are different problems. Pushback 4: I don’t have enough FAITH to live in a world without God This is the part nobody wants to hear. The entire thesis rests on a materialist assumption: your life's meaning is determined by your net worth, your house, your access to experiences. If you can't get those things, you're "imprisoned." If you can, you're "free." That's spiritual poverty masquerading as economic analysis. Jesus said it plain: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?" The author's answer is apparently "at least you beat the algorithm." My BIGGEST problem with the article isn't economic. It's theological. It assumes the highest human need is "self actualization" through financial success. That Maslow's hierarchy is the truth about human nature. That if you can't afford the vacation and the house, you're missing what makes life worth living. That's not wisdom. That's the prosperity gospel without the gospel. No thanks. The reason this generation feels trapped isn't because housing costs went up. It's because they've been handed a worldview where meaning comes from consumption, identity comes from status, and hope is a betting slip. When you build your life on that foundation, of course you feel imprisoned. The cell is interior. Real freedom isn't financial. It never was. The peace that passes understanding doesn't require a Polymarket account. Eternity is a LONG time. So what's the alternative? First: Exit the comparison machine. The author correctly identifies social media as manufacturing infinite dissatisfaction. The answer isn't to gamble your way to a moving target. It's to stop letting an algorithm define your "zeroth line." Your reference class should be your actual life, not curated highlights from 8 billion people. Delete the apps. Touch grass. Go to church. Give yourself to something BIGGER than your net worth. Second: Skill acquisition still compounds. The article mocks "getting better at your job" as boomer advice. But the same young people pouring hours into memecoin research could pour those hours into skills that compound. The difference is skills don't have a house edge. Coding, sales, writing, trades… these translate into income whether the market is up or down. AI is changing which skills matter but it's not eliminating the returns to expertise. It's concentrating them. Third: Asymmetric bets exist outside casinos. If you want convexity, build something. Start a business. Create content. Ship a product. The difference between entrepreneurship and gambling is you're building equity in something that can compound, not burning capital on negative EV. Fourth: Anchor your identity somewhere the market can't touch. If your sense of self rises and falls with your portfolio, you're a slave. If your hope depends on a moonshot, you have no hope. The man who knows who he is in Christ doesn't need a 100x to feel like his life matters. He's already free. That's not copium. That's the only foundation that doesn't move. The real trap The article's framing is seductive because it offers absolution. You're not making bad decisions. You're rationally responding to a broken system. The house always wins but at least you're playing. The framing IS the trap. The economy is harder than it was. Housing costs are real. AI anxiety is real. But "harder" isn't "impossible," and the author's solution… becoming a customer of fee extracting platforms or an investor in them… doesn't help the people he claims to sympathize with. It helps the house. Here's what actually works. -Wake up early. Get after it. Be Relentless. -Spend less than you earn. No excuses. -Acquire skills that compound. Every single day. Stack them. -Build things you own. Equity, not lottery tickets. -Get your body right. Discipline starts physical. -Get your soul right with the Lord. My closeness with the Lord has grown MORE in trials and tribulations than any fancy car. -Exit the comparison machine. The algorithm is not your friend. It's your enemy. -Find your people. Real ones. In person. Build a family. Build a group you trust. -Serve something bigger than yourself. -Pray. Not as a last resort. As a first principle. Daily. -The path is painful. The path is boring. The path requires years of work that nobody will clap for. But it's the path that works. The casinos will keep taking their vig. The gurus will keep selling hope. The algorithms will keep showing you what you don't have. Let them. You are not a prisoner. You are not a degenerate. You are not a customer. You are a free human being with a soul that matters and a life to build. So build it through active faith, aggressive patience, and a mindset geared towards eternity and not your bank account.

@quantian1 Can I join the secret fintwit bbg chat pls

So we’ve learned from the latest update that there’s a total of like 75 people on fintwit with Bloomberg terminals who are not currently employed by Bloomberg and they all already identified each other, cool cool

@teortaxesTex It’s dominated by path dependency over the short term. That’s what people are implying when they say “random walk” You need to observe the same behavior over MANY paths, over more time To draw any conclusions about manager skill

@teortaxesTex How is this so hard for AI people to understand? No one is saying the individual trading decisions are random (they might be, not important tho). You can have the most brilliant, disciplined, +EV trading strategy But ur PnL over a few wks carries ZERO signal wrt trading skill

it's *not* a random walk I used to think so early on in the experiment but it's painfully clear these models have distinct strategies. «random walk» is buzzword dismissal at this point maybe DeepSeek loses bigly if market sentiment shifts, and The Western Frontier recovers. doubt