dudley
2.9K posts
dudley
@cryptoisnice
finance, crypto, and amazing croissants
Katılım Mayıs 2021
3.5K Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
@RHouseResearch I think PTJ is talking about the supply/demand equation for public shares. Hyperscalers aren't doing buybacks + lots of new stock will be in the market via SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. It's a fair point, even though I agree with you that all this capex has a high ROI.
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"You've already going to be diminishing the buybacks because of all of the commitment to capex from the hyperscalers. They're already going to be eating into their cash flow."
This narrative that hyperscaler capex investment will be a major market headwind because it reduces cash available for buybacks falls flat on its face when you look at just a few facts.
First, the hyperscalers themselves. Google has fully halted buybacks and is up 22% YTD and at all time highs.. Meanwhile Microsoft's buybacks are unchanged YoY yet the stock is still down 12% YTD. The return on capex investment is the driver, as Google is rewarded for capex (GCP +63% YoY rev. growth, AI mode boosting search, etc.), while Microsoft hasn't invested enough to enhance their existing offerings with AI (e.g. M365 Copilot at <5% penetration).
Second, hyperscaler capex = free cash flow for NVDA (and others)... which is used to buyback stock. At the peak of hyperscaler buybacks in 2022, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta bought back a combined $126B of shares. In the last twelve months, NVDA alone has bought back $40B of stock, and those buybacks should ramp materially this year with FCF estimates at $150B+ (and mgmt. intending to return 50% to shareholders).. Broadcom bought back more stock last quarter ($7.9B) than any year in its history.. Etc. Etc.. So while the hyperscalers themselves are buying back less stock, the businesses on the receiving end of their capex (semis, memory, etc.) are picking up the slack.
$AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $META $NVDA $AVGO
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag
Paul Tudor Jones: "2000 was the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life. It's got so many similarities to right now."
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@MrDavidThomas @stephenwitt Congratulations! Loved the book. Let us know if you'll be doing any book signings in London!
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Medal winner! THE FAIRFAX WAY won silver in the Axioms for Corporate Biography! Great momentum build for a book about a (formerly) low profile company. 👏👍🙏
Gold to @stephenwitt for Nvidia book, which also won FT Biz Book of the Year. #books
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No offence, but this feels like the 2026 consensus
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@NicolasFlamelX I'm glad they've been prudent and taken their time to pull the trigger on new sites. These DC cancellations and delays have probably created some opportunity for Galaxy
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"SEVERAL OF THOSE SITES HAVE PROGRESSED TO LOIS"
$GLXY
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@bigangrylaw Fret not. PE also ruins clothing brands, European food brands, bakeries….the list goes on
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PE ruins restaurants. We went to a long time TexMex favorite Escalante’s in Highland Village for the first time in 7 or 8 months (we used to go semi-regularly but we try to walk to dinner in Montrose most times we dine out nowadays) and the food was terrible (service was decent but I asked for no tomatoes on my taco and it was clear someone picked the tomatoes out by hand after putting them in the taco which is a bit disgusting). Quick Google search. Yep, Private Equity bought it two years ago.
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@Emmanuella45836 first and last time i hear "nacogdoches" in a sitcom
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@tastybits @vgpatel28 check out Love Croissants in midtown - they are excellent!
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i still don’t get it..why would people choose to commute with other people everyday while they could drive in their own car, park like a king , no parallel park BS. still remeber friend going around circles at night to find a parking spot just so he could live at place walkable to a bar…lol
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Europeans like to scoff at American gluttony, but an underrated factor in the US obesity crisis is that American food is just unreasonably good. Not fine dining specifically, but the average sports bar or taqueria or diner food is just much tastier than typical Euro equivalents
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@JMourinbro @UrbanCourtyard where can you walk to great restaurants? maybe if you live close to rice village - there's a density of some restaurants.
outside of that, there is either no density or the walk is not pleasant
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@UrbanCourtyard Yes, just be rich. For the same payment you can also avoid a commute, live in 4000sqft home, and still walk to great restaurants all in Houston (no one walks though even when they can). Reality of most European "courtyard" apartments is 45 min on the metro and 500 sqft.
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I think people freak out about Houston because no one wants American abundance to look *like that.*
Everyone is hoping that 21st-century abundance can do better than Houston-style sprawl
I am so fascinated by the late 19th century and early 20th century in Europe because they were dealing with a lot of the same urban housing pressures that we are, and they dealt with them by applying a very smart building code. This code allowed builders to go up five or six stories, build to the property lines, but they had to build with masonry and they had to leave the rear part of the lot open for a courtyard.
This code helped these cities to grow by hundreds of thousands over a short time span. And the buildings were beautiful and livable, and are still standing today and are accounted some of the most valuable neighborhoods on the planet
M. Nolan Gray 🥑@mnolangray
It's funny, Houston is this supernova of growth, the rare place in the US that is absorbing millions of domestic and international migrants and making them richer, but if you say anything nice about it, e.g. maybe non-zoning is fine, people have a meltdown.
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Houston. You either appreciate the distinct culture and opportunities it provides, or you study about it in your graduate Urbanism class and you absolutely hate it.
I built these homes a few years ago. Each of these are 3/2/2's, sold in the low $300k's, and are about 10 min east of Downtown. All bought by single, young professionals.
Absolutely not in a walkable part of town. In fact, the new sidewalks we built in front of their homes don't lead anywhere but the ends of the property. My buyers appreciate the storage that the garage affords them even though, as criticized by many, it takes up 50% of the home's elevation. And the best part - immediately across the street is an enormous warehouse that makes rags out of rejected clothing donations.
I do get it - you can't walk to your local cafe and buy baguettes, and walk to work or school. But you can take a 15 min Uber to the happening parts of town, and afford to own your house on a single-income, and walk to your favorite rag supplier on a Saturday morning.
Houston is a weird place, and I love it.
Alicia, Courtyard Urbanist@UrbanCourtyard
@AstorAaron @evan7257 I was talking to a Houston developer who said that local builders and designers have no conception of doing zero lot line construction. Like it doesnt exist in their imagination as a thing one can build
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@azulox @fawfulfan not true. november through april is quite pleasant.
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@fawfulfan No one wants to walk in houston/texas. It's 100 degrees and 100 percent humidity for large swaths of the year.
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Houston is basically what it looks like when you pair abundance policies with massive, massive overinvestment in freeways.
Spend less on freeways and more on transit, while keeping the rest of Houston's development policies, and you'll get something denser and more walkable.
Alicia, Courtyard Urbanist@UrbanCourtyard
I think people freak out about Houston because no one wants American abundance to look *like that.* Everyone is hoping that 21st-century abundance can do better than Houston-style sprawl I am so fascinated by the late 19th century and early 20th century in Europe because they were dealing with a lot of the same urban housing pressures that we are, and they dealt with them by applying a very smart building code. This code allowed builders to go up five or six stories, build to the property lines, but they had to build with masonry and they had to leave the rear part of the lot open for a courtyard. This code helped these cities to grow by hundreds of thousands over a short time span. And the buildings were beautiful and livable, and are still standing today and are accounted some of the most valuable neighborhoods on the planet
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@Noahpinion houston urbanism is improving, but it is not decently good. it is very poor. anyone who enjoys a walking city would not enjoy houston
take it from someone who has actually lived in houston and attempted to walk literally everywhere
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Houston urbanism is actually decently good and getting better every day
M. Nolan Gray 🥑@mnolangray
It's funny, Houston is this supernova of growth, the rare place in the US that is absorbing millions of domestic and international migrants and making them richer, but if you say anything nice about it, e.g. maybe non-zoning is fine, people have a meltdown.
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@cfparma16 @lefty_md I lived in Montrose for 4 years. To say it was walkable is a stretch. Walkability should be pleasant not technically possible. If most of the patrons at a Montrose restaurant arrived there in a car, I’d say that’s a pretty good indicator for how walkable the area is
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@cryptoisnice @lefty_md Parts of the city, absolutely
Most of the Loop is pretty walkable. It definitely suffers from poor land use separation, and that’s improving, but more so from car culture that has convinced many people 5 minutes is too far to walk
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have you actually lived here? I have for 20+ yrs. what's overflowing here is ugly sprawl, mind-numbing commutes, social isolation, little transit, & time devoured by doing anything outside the home. not sthing to emulate
M. Nolan Gray 🥑@mnolangray
"It's all sprawl!" It's certainly a lot, and hey, that's how cities always and everywhere boom. But it's also a lot of infill. It's a lot of everything, because Houston defaults to "let people do things," warts and all. This is what real, existing American abundance looks like.
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@lefty_md Large parts of Houston, yes that can be true. The area he highlighted is a pretty nice place to live and close to a lot of things
Most of the area inside the Loop is much more urban
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>Meet Priya Patel, 23 Y/o,
>born in the U.S. to an Indian Gujarati family.
>She hates* her own father just because he was from india.
>She thinks she is white and real American.
>On Instagram, she has 84 posts featuring her mom, siblings, and herself but her father is noticeably absent in every photo.
>In an interview on Piers Morgan Uncensored, she claimed her father is from Uganda.
>Interesting, considering ‘Patel’ is widely known as a Gujarati Indian surname.
>She even went on to say that Indians should be deported from the U.S. and London.
>But the moment got awkward real fast when a white nationalist on the same show responded, Then we should start by deporting you first.
>Imagin hating on your own father just to be get approval from real Americans that she is real Americans
>What's your opinion on her?
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Wharton MBAs realizing that they actually have to run the company after buying it with 70% debt
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