Deepak Dua

@soicfinance Wow… superb 👌🏻

What did I read this week 1. On April 20, the President of USA signed the Presidential Determination 2026-10, a Defense Production Act (DPA) Section 303 determination for grid infrastructure, equipment, and supply-chain capacity. Thereby, officially classifying conductors, transmission lines, transformers, substations, high voltage lines & capacitors & CRGO core used in transformers as items which are essential to national defence. The current waiting for distribution transformers in USA has gone to 13 months vs the historical average of 3 months & for power transformers the lead time is 42 months vs the historical average of 15 months. This trend is visible financially in order book of GE Vernova, Eaton, Bloom energy & the GRID ETF. For EATON the order book increased by 16% YOY in Q4 results. Primarily driven by Data centre and demand for other electrical goods. For GE Vernova the Quarterly order book increased by 71% YOY, & back logs for GAS turbines has gone to 100 GW. 2. India's power demand hit a record high of 256.1 GW on April 25, 2026, driven by intense early summer heatwaves and economic growth. This peak demand surpassed the 250 GW record from May 2024, with expectations to reach 270 GW+ soon. The grid successfully met this surge using increased coal-fired generation and solar energy. Increased cooling needs (air conditioners) during April-June are the primary drivers for surging power usage. 3. Something which I do on every weekend is to check the list of industries which are strongly outperforming the benchmarks and displaying relative strength from here:- stockscans.in/market-scans The two industries apart from power sector that caught my attention were the Metals and mining space & the capital markets. For case study I will cover one business from each sector briefly- A) Post Vedanta's demerger. The Aluminium business & Power business will be worth tracking. The Aluminium business will have higher captive consumption of Bauxite going forward from FY27 which can increase their ebitda margins. In the power business this year they have commissioned around 1.6 gigawatt of capacity at Athena, Meenakshi. So, total capacity as of now up and running is 4.2 gigawatt. This is expected to go to around 4.8 gigawatt by end of H1 of the next year. Long term plan in place is to put additional 10 to 12 gigawatts of power capacity. B) Nippon India Asset management: Nippon is a market leader in ETFs with 21.4%+ market share and many ETFs like Gold bees, Nifty Bees, Silverbees etc have the highest trading volumes. ETFs funnily is a business with network effects. More volume=more investors=More liquidity=lower impact cost=better reflection of underlying assets value=more investors=lesser impact cost=more liquidity. Passives as a category is growing at 30%+ since last 5 years in India. Worth studying. 4. Eli Lilly posted a big beat-and-raise in Q1’26, with 56% revenue growth and EPS up >150% driven mainly by explosive GLP‑1 demand in diabetes/obesity. Growth was volume-led despite pricing pressure, and management raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance, underscoring confidence in multi‑year GLP‑1 upside. An oral GLP‑1 (Foundayo) approval plus strong retatrutide and other late‑stage data deepen the pipeline, but investors should still watch U.S. pricing/regulatory risk and Lilly’s ability to keep scaling manufacturing to meet unprecedented demand. Dr. Reddy’s just secured Health Canada’s first-ever approval for a generic Ozempic (semaglutide) injection, opening a key G7 beachhead for its global GLP‑1 strategy with a May launch window and aggressive pricing expected. Behind the scenes, OneSource Specialty Pharma is the CDMO workhorse scaling and manufacturing the formulation from its US‑FDA approved Bengaluru facility, while Shaily Engineering supplies the high‑volume GLP‑1 injector pens that will carry not just Dr. Reddy’s semaglutide, but potentially multiple global GLP‑1 generics over the next few years. 5. AUTO continues to fire: Auto Volumes Apr’26: ▪️ PVs:Domestic Industry volumes grew ~20% YoY led by Maruti (+32%) and Tata Motors (+31%). Maruti witnessed broad-based strength across UVs, compact and mini segments. Hyundai (+17%) and M&M (+8%) reported relatively moderate growth, while Toyota continued to outperform (+21%). ▪️ CVs: Domestic CV volumes (ex-AL) remained healthy (+16% YoY) supported by infra-led freight movement. Tata Motors outperformed significantly (+28%) driven by strong SCV/pickup demand (~40% growth). VECV and M&M LCV grew 9% and 7%, respectively. ▪️ 2Ws: Domestic 2W volumes (ex-Bajaj) grew ~30% YoY led by Hero MotoCorp (+85%) and Royal Enfield (+37%). TVS grew 8% with strong EV traction (+36%), though motorcycle volumes remained impacted by supply constraints. Exports grew 19% YoY but remained mixed across OEMs. 6. CDMOs like Navin & Acutaas had a strong finish to the financial year 26. Both of their CDMO business growth is led by Darolutamide & launches of new CDMO molecules. For Navin, the CDMO business crossed 541 crore of revenues and they are guiding for $100 Million in FY27. For Acutaas they maintain their guidance of 1000 crore CDMO revenue for FY28, and encouragingly the Semiconductor chemical business reported solid margins and growth after multiple Quarters of destocking. They are doing a capex of nearly 200 crores for setting up the Semiconductor chemicals plant in South Korea. 7. The capital markets index is a rising part of the NSE 500 index and its share in the NSE 500 has grown from a mere 0.1% 10 years ago to 0.84% 5 years ago, and now stands at over 2.5%. The number of companies in the capital market segment increased from just 3 companies 10 years ago, to 10 companies 5 years ago, and now stands at 18 companies as per MOSL's concall. There are tonnes of more learnings and I will keep sharing them as the results season has just started. Do let me know in the comments section if you loved these learnings and will like for us to continue this series :)

@kothariabhishek Om Shanti!!

My cousin naniji.. Om Shanti She was 89 years old Never took any medicines or was hospitalised during her lifetime. 🙏

@Alchemist1320 In place of…. Ek girta rahe ek Badta rahe…. I will use… ek sambalta rahe aur ek badta rahe🙏

Me looking at my PF 😊 तुझको दरया दिली की कसम साक़िया मुस्तकिल दौर पर दौर चलता रहा रौनक-ए-मैकड़ा यून ही बढ़ती रहे एक गिरता रहे इक संभलता रहे सिर्फ शबनम ही शान-ए-गुलिस्ताँ नहीं शोला-ओ-गुल का भी दौर चलता रहे अश्क भी चश्म-ए-पुरनम से बहते रहे और दिल से धुआँ भी निकलता रहे youtu.be/kXfbsfRVgq8?si…

@samisosa1234 Oye tere ki… yeh toh sab bhul hee gaye…

Hindware and Cera - Data Centre Proxies ? Toilet bhi toh hoga na location pe...

@LearningEleven @Santosh8747134 Shekhar…. take a bow!!

Timepass talk on Sunday 1. OBSC Perfection – Precision with a diversification kicker OBSC is a ~9-year-old precision metal component manufacturer with a diversified portfolio of high-quality products. Its key offerings include piston rods, sensor bosses, water injectors, and nut fasteners, catering to applications across exhaust systems, steering & suspension, ammunition, fuses, mechanical cables, and telecom towers. The company operates six manufacturing facilities across Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana, with capabilities spanning machining, turning, investment casting, fabrication, stamping, and forging. Revenue mix: ~80% domestic, ~20% exports Order Book: ₹1,200+ crore, with a portion of these orders scheduled for execution over the next 4–5 years. Fund Raise: The company raised ₹53 crore through a preferential issue at ₹311 per share, aimed at supporting its growth and expansion plans. Despite being an SME, OBSCP has been consistent with disclosures, reporting strong Q3 performance with record-high total income, EBITDA, and PAT. FY25 total income: ₹145 crore 9M FY26 total income: ₹151 crore (already surpassing FY25) Segment mix (9M FY26): Automotive – 84% (vs ~91% in FY25) Marine – 6.7% Defence – 5.7% What’s changing? The key thesis lies in gradual diversification away from automotive toward marine and defence, which are structurally higher-margin segments. Automotive gross margins: ~20–25% Defence gross margins: ~40–45% Marine gross margins: can exceed 70% Moving up the value chain Some of the recently secured orders require the company to set up dedicated facilities in close proximity to customers. While it may take a few quarters for these nomination letters to translate into revenue, they provide strong visibility into FY28 and beyond. Bottom line While the valuations aren't necessarily cheap and business remains auto-heavy and hence cyclical, increasing exposure to defence and marine could meaningfully improve the margin profile and earnings quality over time. If this mix shift sustains, the business could transition from a cyclical auto supplier to a more diversified, higher-margin play. 2. The triple digit threat Greg Sharenow, a commodities expert from PIMCO, suggests that even if the Strait reopens in early May, crude prices are likely to stay in the triple digits for a considerable time. A return to the $70/bbl range is likely more than a year away. He says, reopening isn't just about ending the blockade; it involves complex transit mechanisms, clearing trapped tankers, and managing a "virtual pipeline" that has been disrupted for nearly two months. If full normalization occurs by the end of May, prices could return to the $80s, however, if flows are restricted to 80% of normal, global demand (which would be short 3–4 million barrels per day) would keep prices much higher. Refined products (jet fuel, diesel) are trading at historic premiums to crude. Asia has been the most acutely impacted region due to damaged refinery infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, and ongoing attacks on Russian assets. In some markets, while Brent Crude is trading at $105.00 per barrel, the market is seeing massive spreads with Jet Fuel priced at $157.10 (a $52.10 premium) and Diesel at $164.60 (a $59.60 premium). 3. Price Hikes and Early Signs of Demand Softening These elevated refining spreads and fuel costs are beginning to translate into airfare increases, with early signs of demand softening in price-sensitive segments. Airlines are responding through a mix of fuel surcharges, fare hikes, and selective capacity adjustments. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, capacity discipline is increasing, though this is not a uniform, industry-wide reduction. Some supply-side concerns have also emerged. While localized tightness in jet fuel availability has been reported in parts of Europe, claims of critically low continent-wide reserves should be treated with caution, as inventories and logistics vary significantly by region and airport. On the diesel front, demand destruction is more visible in weaker economies such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, where limited fiscal capacity restricts fuel subsidies, leading to sharp consumption adjustments. The Philippines did declare a temporary energy emergency amid global supply disruptions. Retail diesel prices reportedly spiked significantly (in some cases from ~₱60/litre to peak levels near ₱170 before easing to ~₱100–105), still materially higher than historical norms, highlighting the stress on consumers. Airlines have already started passing on costs: Air India has added fuel surcharges on select international routes Cathay Pacific has increased surcharges across its network Global carriers like Emirates, Lufthansa, and KLM have also adjusted fares and fees From a cost perspective, Scott Kirby of United Airlines has indicated that sustained high fuel prices could add billions of dollars annually to airline cost structures. This additional cost is more than profits of some of the airlines! On the demand side, premium and business travel remains relatively resilient, but leisure travel is beginning to show elasticity, with some routes witnessing sharp fare increases leading to deferred or downsized travel plans. 4. Vedanta - Value unlocking or trap? The long-awaited demerger is finally here. Vedanta Ltd has announced May 1, 2026 as the record date for its restructuring, which will lead to the creation and eventual independent listing of five separate entities. For every 1 share of Vedanta Ltd held on the record date, shareholders will receive 1 share in each of the four newly created entities. The five resulting companies: Vedanta Ltd (retains stake in Hindustan Zinc) Vedanta Aluminium (includes ~51% stake in Bharat Aluminium Company) Vedanta Power Vedanta Oil & Gas Vedanta Steel & Iron Ore Key highlights Vedanta Aluminium stands out as the most compelling play, supported by tight global aluminium supply, firm metal prices, and ongoing capacity expansions. Vedanta Oil & Gas will house Cairn Oil & Gas, India’s largest private crude oil producer, contributing ~25% of domestic output. With crude hovering around $90/bbl, the business offers strong near-term margin potential. Indicative valuation (as per Nuvama): Vedanta Aluminium – ₹449 Vedanta Ltd – ₹291 Vedanta Power – ₹45 Vedanta Oil & Gas – ₹40 Vedanta Steel & Iron Ore – ₹22 Post-demerger, once the new entities are listed, there could be meaningful selling pressure in select businesses (some of that selling happened last week). 5. Himadri Speciality Chemical – Something meaningful is unfolding Himadri Speciality Chemical Ltd (HSCL) has delivered a 20%+ margin year after a six-year gap, potentially signaling the start of a structurally stronger earnings phase. Management has guided for net profit exceeding ₹1,100 crore by FY28, driven by a decisive shift toward value-added products. These currently contribute ~25–30% of revenue, with a target to scale this to ~50% over the next few years. While the financial trajectory is important, the bigger story lies in how effectively the company is scaling multiple high-potential verticals simultaneously. Key Growth Drivers Anode Materials: HSCL has commissioned a ~200 MTPA vertically integrated anode capacity, positioning itself in a high-growth EV ecosystem segment. Management has indicated that this is just the starting point, with significant capex planned over the next 4–5 years. Cathode Materials: The company is setting up India’s first commercial-scale LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) cathode active material plant in Odisha, expected to be operational by Q3 FY27, a strategic forward integration into battery materials. Carbon Black Expansion: A new carbon black line is being added, strengthening both core and specialty segments, supporting margin improvement. Birla Tyres Integration: With Birla Tyres, the company is ramping up capacity and introducing new products. From a revenue base of ~₹187 crore in FY26, management is targeting ₹3,000+ crore over the next 3–4 years! Anthraquinone & Carbazole: They are setting up a facility (target completion by Q2 FY27) to manufacture these specialty chemicals. These are high-margin derivatives used in dyes, pigments, and high-performance plastics. By producing these in-house, they capture the margin that was previously going to their downstream customers Strategic Investment: Equity stake in International Battery Company (IBC) could evolve into a meaningful long-term optionality. Instead of just making cathode/anode powders and hoping they work, HSCL uses IBC’s South Korean facility to validate and scale their materials in real-world battery cells. Bottom line Margins have expanded from ~10% in FY23 to ~21% in FY26, while value-added products (VAP) have scaled from near-zero a few years ago to ~25% today, with a target of ~50% over the next few years. HSCL is not just improving earnings, it is strategically repositioning itself across the EV materials and specialty chemicals value chain. That said, some of these verticals remain inherently cyclical, and valuations should be assessed with that cyclicality in mind. That's all for this edition. Have a great Sunday! Disclaimer: None or buy or sell recommendations. This publicly available information is shared for learning and education purposes.

@tushar9590 Wow… great… portfolio up 40%… Great…. V v happy for you👍

When markets rebound from absolute dullness: Nifty Index from lows: 10% ⬆️ Nifty Smallcap index: 18%⬆️ Portfolio: 40%⬆️

Railway board has revised salt transportation rates in containers. This will give jump to containerisation of salt transportation specially in stainless steel containers as proposed by Hon’ble Minister for Railways in his recent reform presentation

Full stainless steel container for transportation Of steel products such as coils sheets and slabs. Payload increase by 2.5 Mt and up to 69 t per container on all IR routes will be game changer for steel transportation if IR allows in containers in national interest

@tushar9590 Haha….. he is one of the best story teller…worst story… Relaxo by him 😔

When you can't find BAAP stocks in India anymore 👇

Dr. Velumani in conversation with entrepreneur Ankur Gaba, who scaled Akiko Global Services from just 5 telecallers to a 100-strong team. Tune in now youtube.com/watch?v=o3qGzJ… @akiko_global @velumania

@shantanupriya Vindhya telelink

@ShubhamKumar_IA @SniPayne Wah bhai… Good Tweet… one of the best…

@SniPayne The difference is: Yahoo would’ve required little capital to scale (to a global audience) if it had product-market fit MTAR will need to invest heavily to grow and the TAM is much much smaller than Yahoo’s

Being a fundamental investor first you wont be able to buy MTAR. If you have read Minervini ,his talk on PE will stick to you. He bought Yahoo! at 938 times earnings, which then gained 7,800% and was trading at higher PE in no time. You need to deepdive, peel layers to buy it.

@TechnoFunda6 @DrdhimanBhatta1 @ProudIndian0605 @ghoshspeaks1983 @Mayukh35748976 @BuzzingstockH @ActusDei @AstroCounselKK @sjlazars @tusharbohra @sunilgurjar01 Congrats Dr. Sahib🙏

@DrdhimanBhatta1 @ProudIndian0605 @ghoshspeaks1983 @Mayukh35748976 @BuzzingstockH @ActusDei @AstroCounselKK @sjlazars @tusharbohra @sunilgurjar01 @deepakd900950 Congratulations

On the auspicious occasion of Gudi Padwa, marking Hindu New Year and Day 1 of Navratri, I’m delighted to announce the launch of my first book — 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐲 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬. Markets may be down 1800+ points today, but such corrections are often the best opportunities to invest, espeically for 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐲 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬. Please bless me and circulate as much as possible 🙏. Thank you. #GudiPadwa #Navratri #StockMarketInvesting #Investing #चैत्र_नवरात्रि #नवरात्रि amazon.in/dp/8199128151

@DrdhimanBhatta1 @sjlazars @Sharad9Dubey @AstroCounselKK All depends majorly on Hormuz…

#OilPrices #BrentOil #Iran #IranWar #IranIsraelWar Something very serious may be developing for the Indian stock market this week. @sjlazars @Sharad9Dubey Retweet for maximum reach. @AstroCounselKK Global signals now are extremely alarming. If these trends continue, Monday could be very painful for Indian equities. Let me explain why. #DonaldTrump US and European markets have already started showing sharp declines. At the same time, something even more dangerous is happening in the background: Energy prices are exploding. This combination historically signals global financial stress. @deepakd900950 Crude Oil has surged 35% in just one week! This is the largest weekly jump since the 1980s. Such violent moves almost never happen unless the world is entering a serious geopolitical or economic crisis. @ProudIndian0605 The core problem: The Strait of Hormuz. This tiny passage handles 20%+ of global oil trade. Now tankers are avoiding it due to escalating Iran–US tensions and military risks. When oil cannot move, the world economy starts choking. @Rakkyrocks1 Several Gulf countries are reportedly cutting production. Not because they want to. @StocksTreasures But because exports are disrupted and storage is filling up. This is a physical supply shock, not just speculation. @AmeetRai And supply shocks drive inflation globally. India is extremely vulnerable here. We import roughly 80% of our crude oil. @AdityaD_Shah Even RBI estimates that: A 10% rise in oil reduces India’s GDP by ~0.15%. Oil is already up 30%+. You can do the math. @sunilwagh2004 This means: • Higher inflation • Widening current account deficit • Pressure on the rupee • Higher input costs for companies All of this directly hurts equity markets. @AstroPrashanth9 Markets hate uncertainty + inflation + geopolitical conflict. And right now we may have all three together. Historically this combination has triggered 10–40% drawdowns in equities. @AstroSharmistha Important reminder: Equity investing is not safe money. Anyone entering the market must be mentally prepared for temporary wealth destruction. This is the reality many new investors forget. However, history also teaches something else. For investors with 5–10 year horizons, these scary periods often become the best accumulation opportunities. But only if handled calmly. My personal approach in such situations: 👇 • Stay largely invested • Keep some cash ready • Invest gradually on declines • Avoid emotional decisions Panic is expensive in markets. But let me be very clear: 👇 No one knows how long geopolitical crises last. It could be weeks, months, or even years. So risk management matters more than predictions. Monday may give us the first real signal of how markets react. Prepare mentally. Volatility is coming. Stay rational. Stay disciplined. The next few weeks could be very important for investors. Please RETWEET. Thank you for your time 🙏😊.

@AI_Feb21 Thanks a lot Prince and all the Speakers… Great Insights

@DrdhimanBhatta1 @AstroCounselKK @sjlazars @BuzzingstockH @cmagurvinder @AshishMeher7 @caswapnilkabra @ProudIndian0605 @Mayukh35748976 @JagamohanPatro ❤️

HAPPY HOLI 🎇🫟🫟 #stockmarketcrash #StockMarketIndia #StockMarketToday #DonaldTrump #IranWar #IranIsraelWar #Iran

Wheelsets: The Risk That Could Derail India’s Rail Boom thecore.in/n-859100

@DesiVaidya @Ayurvedictips_ 64

गणित के विद्वान हाज़िर हो और इसका सही उत्तर बताएं ....?

@BMTheEquityDesk @emirates Abhi deckhand jab AI se call centre run honge…. Tab dekhna Kya hoga

A friend is taking a flight from Washington DC to Dubai in a few hours and @emirates call center is shut. No one is taking the call! What are the call centers for??

@RupakRoyC 100%…

Market kya lagta hai se jyada important market ko kya lagta hai.