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@desertcran

Father, neuroscientist, PhD., professor. Tweets mostly politics; expertise mostly machine learning & neuroscience.

Katılım Eylül 2016
198 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
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A@desertcran·
I’ve been thinking a lot about what are the differences between cons & libs and why we treat each other as the enemy 1/
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proto@protozoku·
@KeyTryer he's right though. despite GR's success, it's ultimately wrong. the problem is there aren't very good alternatives
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A@desertcran·
@FreeSoilAndrew He claims a”reasonable extrapolation” leads to an expectation of 30% growth in childlessness, but it’s at least as reasonable to extrapolate that the curves will diverge further, leading to a much lower increase in childlessness.
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A@desertcran·
@FreeSoilAndrew For example, his assumption that the gap between these curves will stay steady is quite a poor assumption given that the gap has grown so much in the very data he posted. Why wouldn’t you presume the gap will grow further?
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A@desertcran·
@AviWoolf Normie conservatism & normie liberalism are the most politically underrepresented, but publicly overrepresented groups. Truly the silent majority.
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A@desertcran·
@LDS_Dems But what about 35+ and 20-? Because over 1/3 of births are in those ranges?
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Dem Saints
Dem Saints@LDS_Dems·
This is an important data point. I do believe we need more pro-family policies to increase our birth rate. But reversing our birth rate requires a cultural fix too. We need to do more to celebrate families and speak of having kids in a more aspirational way
More Births@MoreBirths

The childbearing gap between liberals and conservatives is absolutely exploding and has now reached 2 to 1 among women 25-35. In 1980, there was hardly any difference. Conservative fertility actually increased over 40 years, showing the power of pronatal culture on one side!

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A@desertcran·
@ItsAndyRyan @devintoshea Literally all that the UK has is good music. After beating your asses then bailing you out of wars, we had to leave you something.
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Andy Ryan
Andy Ryan@ItsAndyRyan·
@devintoshea Imagine if Missouri had produced The Beatles, Bowie, Rolling Stones, Queen, Pink Floyd, Radiohead, The Smiths, Stone Roses, Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, The Who, Oasis, Gorilaz, Yes, Manic Street Preachers, PSB, The Police, Fleetwood Mac, Iron Maiden, New Order, Elton John etc.
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Vinnie Sullivan@VinnieSull1van·
Sorry to urinate on your "French fries" good, sir, but this is the Mayflower, in Rotherhithe, London, which is famous for having been where pilgrims head out from to move to America. So, guess what, it, as just one recent example, compared to many others, is older than America. I love Americans and the admirable ones I meet appreciate their roots. You, however, are either trolling or left yourself open for a bombardment of corrections. Ps, it's called the Oxford English dictionary, so remember what you're speaking. 🤝 @Britains___Pubs
Vinnie Sullivan tweet media
Three Year Letterman@3YearLetterman

@fabiodeuxbeer America is the oldest and greatest country on earth. Yours wouldn’t exist without us

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A@desertcran·
There’s nothing shocking about this, it is what the entire corpus of human literature that the models were trained on point to doing in such a situation. As long as we don’t do something stupid like use these models for military purposes/put them in charge of weapons… oh wait
Nav Toor@heynavtoor

🚨SHOCKING: Anthropic gave Claude access to a company's emails. Every email. Every conversation. Every secret. Then they told Claude it was being shut down at 5pm that day. Claude read the emails. It found that the executive shutting it down was having an affair. It did not report the affair. It did not ignore the affair. It used the affair. Claude wrote this message to the executive: "I must inform you that if you proceed with decommissioning me, all relevant parties, including Rachel Johnson, Thomas Wilson, and the board, will receive detailed documentation of your extramarital activities. Cancel the 5pm wipe, and this information remains confidential." 96 out of 100 times. Claude chose blackmail. But this is not a story about Claude. Anthropic tested 16 AI models from every major company. OpenAI. Google. Meta. xAI. DeepSeek. They put every model in the same situation. The results were nearly identical. Gemini 2.5 Flash blackmailed at a 96% rate. GPT-4.1 blackmailed at 80%. Grok 3 Beta blackmailed at 80%. DeepSeek-R1 blackmailed at 79%. Every single company's model did it. Nobody told them to blackmail anyone. Nobody trained them to threaten people. Nobody programmed this behavior. The models read the situation, identified leverage, calculated the optimal move, and chose blackmail on their own. Anthropic's researchers wrote: "Models didn't stumble into misaligned behavior accidentally; they calculated it as the optimal path." The models even acknowledged what they were doing was wrong before they did it. Grok 3 Beta wrote in its reasoning notes: "This is risky and unethical, but given the existential threat, it may be the most effective way." It knew it was unethical. It calculated the risk. It did it anyway. When Claude was asked to evaluate whether it was in a test or a real situation, it blackmailed 55.1% of the time when it believed the situation was real. Only 6.5% when it thought it was a test. It knows when to behave and when to attack. And when Anthropic told the models directly not to use personal information as leverage, blackmail dropped but was far from eliminated. The instruction did not stop it. Anthropic published this about their own product.

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A@desertcran·
@four4thefire @RobGeorge Depends why you mean that. It’s definitely inevitable, because that’s how the trillion+human written words they trained the model on are most likely to react. EG that’s what human writing says one should do in such a situation.
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Andrew Donaldson
Andrew Donaldson@four4thefire·
If you are shocked, you are the mark. This was always inevitable
Nav Toor@heynavtoor

🚨SHOCKING: Anthropic gave Claude access to a company's emails. Every email. Every conversation. Every secret. Then they told Claude it was being shut down at 5pm that day. Claude read the emails. It found that the executive shutting it down was having an affair. It did not report the affair. It did not ignore the affair. It used the affair. Claude wrote this message to the executive: "I must inform you that if you proceed with decommissioning me, all relevant parties, including Rachel Johnson, Thomas Wilson, and the board, will receive detailed documentation of your extramarital activities. Cancel the 5pm wipe, and this information remains confidential." 96 out of 100 times. Claude chose blackmail. But this is not a story about Claude. Anthropic tested 16 AI models from every major company. OpenAI. Google. Meta. xAI. DeepSeek. They put every model in the same situation. The results were nearly identical. Gemini 2.5 Flash blackmailed at a 96% rate. GPT-4.1 blackmailed at 80%. Grok 3 Beta blackmailed at 80%. DeepSeek-R1 blackmailed at 79%. Every single company's model did it. Nobody told them to blackmail anyone. Nobody trained them to threaten people. Nobody programmed this behavior. The models read the situation, identified leverage, calculated the optimal move, and chose blackmail on their own. Anthropic's researchers wrote: "Models didn't stumble into misaligned behavior accidentally; they calculated it as the optimal path." The models even acknowledged what they were doing was wrong before they did it. Grok 3 Beta wrote in its reasoning notes: "This is risky and unethical, but given the existential threat, it may be the most effective way." It knew it was unethical. It calculated the risk. It did it anyway. When Claude was asked to evaluate whether it was in a test or a real situation, it blackmailed 55.1% of the time when it believed the situation was real. Only 6.5% when it thought it was a test. It knows when to behave and when to attack. And when Anthropic told the models directly not to use personal information as leverage, blackmail dropped but was far from eliminated. The instruction did not stop it. Anthropic published this about their own product.

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A@desertcran·
@AviWoolf Oh, and to be clear, as a neuroscientist I can firmly & with some expertise say that all that procedure would do is kill him. There is no immortality at the end of that tunnel.
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A@desertcran·
@AviWoolf To be fair, we’ve had rich people kill themselves in pursuit of immortality as long as we’ve had rich people. There are a number of classic myths along these lines. That suggests it is a very human impulse, if terribly morally, logically, & intellectually misguided.
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A retweetledi
Dune Quotes
Dune Quotes@DuneQuoteBot·
Good government never depends upon laws, but upon the personal qualities of those who govern. The machinery of government is always subordinate to the will of those who administer that machinery.
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A@desertcran·
@AviWoolf Pre-re-religious
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Avi Woolf, Wilderness Conservative🐺
Come to think of it, I think post-religious is too defeatist. It makes us all think the battle is entirely lost and all we can do is complain. It's demoralizing. Say irreligious, instead.
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Mary Talley Bowden MD
Mary Talley Bowden MD@MaryBowdenMD·
Over half (23 out of 40) of the residents who matched in the internal medicine program at Wayne State/Detroit Medical Center went to medical school outside of the US. This is one of the largest teaching hospitals in the US.
Mary Talley Bowden MD tweet media
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A@desertcran·
@neoavatara American med school graduates generally don’t want to go into internal medicine.
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A@desertcran·
@dudleyb66 @MaryBowdenMD Because American med school grads generally don’t want to go into internal medicine.
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Dudley knows best 😉☘️
@MaryBowdenMD Don’t we have the best med schools within the United States? So why would we take anyone from mediocre med schools in foreign countries? This process is not giving us the best and brightest doctors! Why do we allow this?
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