sumguyinatye

@itsrosesm Gertrude

WHAT was your grandmother's name... I'm looking for a vintage girl's name. Not Doris.

@profplum99 @tylercowen @swinshi In the past I have considered the levels of welfare payments by state, there is a break even point where working vs not working is clear and defined by the number of people who dropout and take the welfare, this is reality for poor people and hard to see from Wall Street…maybe.

Honest question for anyone engaged in this debate: Where would you place the poverty line, using 2025 costs of housing, childcare, healthcare, transportation, taxes, and work-related expenses? @tylercowen @swinshi

@marketmike “Sir-Mix-A-Indicator”

It has come to my attention that I should really consider changing the name of this. Im open to suggestions.

@sciencegirl Kids

@LanceRoberts Not top of the K one would guess.

Here is my only question: #Smallcap #stocks haven't been able to grow #earnings over the last three years amid VERY strong #economic growth. But somehow, next year, they are supposed to have a 59% increase as economic growth and inflation continue to slow. The #MathAintMathin'

@biancoresearch The survey has a higher distribution to democrats with landlines that watch cable news that get stressed out…maybe.

What is the cause of the K-Shaped Economy? The short answer is inflation ("affordability") and not jobs. --- The University of Michigan Sentiment Survey (blue) was 50.3, the second-lowest reading shown ever, behind only June 2022. This survey started in 1952, and consumer sentiment is currently lower than during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, 1969 recession (and protests), 1970s inflation, the 1987 crash, the 1998 financial crisis, September 11, the Great Recession in 2008, and COVID. This is happening when the unemployment rate is 4.3%, well below its 73-year average of 5.7%, and the stock market (red) is at a new all-time high after two consecutive 20% annual gains. So why are consumers so negative? The simple answer is inflation, or “affordability” as it is now being called. From the cumulative rise in CPI over the last five years (prices are now 26% higher) to record home and beef prices, consumers feel everything is too expensive and are upset about it. Add to this that wages (average hourly earnings) have increased by 21% over the last five years, behind the 26% increase in CPI, and they are also falling further behind.

@ZaStocks Negative is default for most things, algorithmic driven egocentric nature of general society believe hope and hard work is for the gullible.

One thing important to note is that the attitude and sentiment toward AI is broadly negative. During the dot com boom, everyone was excited and there was this widespread euphoria about how the internet would change the world for the better. AI is the opposite. Most people I know + the general public think of AI as the end of humanity and a shift toward Terminator. UBI, the end of jobs and mass unemployment, and robots taking over is the general consensus. People view AI leaders like Altma, Elon, Zuck, Google, etc. as a group of people who want to own/rule the world. I would say if you polled the general public, the overwhelming sentiment towards AI would lean very negative. Especially because people are seeing layoffs, increasing electricity bills due to data centers, etc. and it’s perceived to have a net negative impact on their life. That’s part of the reason I believe this run isn’t over yet… we haven’t had the majority of people shift their thinking to a positive future. In the dot com boom, optimism created the bubble. Right now, pessimism around AI is consensus. When that flips, I think we’ll be closer to the end of this run.

@Undoomed 2025 Codependent Couple of the Year! Jeez, get a room.

What the fuck are you even talking about?

@AnnaEconomist Seems every move China is making is because of this, old news.

This finding is similar to the conclusion in a simulation in a FOMC meeting presentation back in late 2018. Question is why finding like this was no where to be published or uttered in the last twelve months.

@texasrunnerDFW Word.

America is full of incredibly talented hardworking young people 🇺🇸 I meet them every day. I have worked with them. I have taught them. I am raising them. They come from different ethnic backgrounds but the common thing shared is they are proud to be US citizens

@NotTheSame_Cord @mustachetoilet Cow says “Parkour”!

@mustachetoilet How is it you are so ignorant?

No prior generation had to give up all other joys in life to buy a home. They had phones. They watched tv and movies. They ate at restaurants. They traveled. They drove new cars. They went to bars with friends. They drank and smoked constantly. To pretend otherwise is absurd.

@peterrhague Realize you don’t have the solution, until they directly ask for your thoughts on the solution. The voicing is frustration and buying time for internal self resolution. Give space and time.

Wife: <problem> Me: <solution>? Wife: I don’t want <solution>! How do you get past this dynamic?

@Mr_Derivatives #2 combo with onion rings and a chocolate shake, for pickup!

Buy the rumor sell the news on government re-open? Or… Buy the rumor buy the news on government re-open?

@texasrunnerDFW Dream of the 90s is still alive!

So we’re doing this again, huh? 🤦🏼‍♀️

The idea is not new to financial markets, liberating the masses from serfdom developed the financial markets since 1381, technology risks returning to a larger component of it within society, with age related consumption declining demographically in our lifetimes…maybe. Just probabilities.

Every post I’ve seen about the new 50 year mortgage is focused on how you’ll save a couple hundred bucks a month but pay way more in interest. That’s short term thinking. You don’t have to use a 50 year mortgage personally, but you should be thinking about how it could impact markets and how you can benefit. If this becomes mainstream, it could have the potential to push home prices higher. So maybe look into homebuilders or various real estate equities. Maybe your own property values rise. Maybe it changes the rental market dynamics and gives landlords more flexibility. The question isn’t whether a 50 year mortgage is good or bad. It’s how can you use it to your advantage. Stop thinking like the consumer. Start thinking like an investor.

Every post I’ve seen so far about the possibility of 50-year mortgages is looking at it all wrong.

@0xMerridew This is the way.

@Feralfairy13 Everybody is poor and it is brand new for many middle class folks who have lived well for 60 years.

My most boomer take is that working is actually good, and most people don’t have real jobs anymore. That’s why everyone’s depressed

@texasrunnerDFW Fun has been deemed illegal by both political parties.

Oddly muted Halloween this year Not many kids out trick-or-treating Some of the dark empty streets felt downright dystopian

All palaces are temporary palaces All theories are provisional theories

@DonMiami3 @mortgagetruth They will wait for sure, foreign investors with ample liquidity are exiting the space too, more opportunity in South America and Central Africa, despite headlines…maybe.

@didyaskinyaknee @mortgagetruth When prices fall why wouldn’t buyers just sit there and wait even longer?

The double-edged sword of falling mortgage rates. Especially if you think home prices don't have a lot of upside either. Could explain subdued purchase apps and high cancellations, despite the lowest rates in three years.