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Dan Kimerling
12K posts
Dan Kimerling
@dkimerling
Founder + Managing Partner @Deciens; Lead Investor, @chippercashapp @GlacierGrid @Funding_U @treasuryprime & many other fintechs. 💍 to @jojonojojo
Albuquerque, NM Katılım Ocak 2008
990 Takip Edilen6.4K Takipçiler
i've accepted for a while now that ballooning AUMs in VC structurally require the constant need for a bubble (or framed more diplomatically, high-growth industries that require endless capital)
however, I underestimated that AUMs have gotten so large that we need to create 3 bubbles simultaneously to satisfy deployment cycles (LLMs, robotics, space). I did assume all of these 3 would go through some bubble event before 2030 (one narrative leads to the next) but the timeline compression is mind-boggling
once again, unsure how this experiment plays out but doesn't feel like a good idea
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Being right about a technology ≠ making money from it.
People who bought Amazon at the peak of the Dotcom Bubble waited 10 years to break even. Cisco buyers waited 24.
Timing is the variable most investors underweight and most founders under-plan for.
deciens.com/press-and-insi…
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@Firmcap @kevinhartz @ncsh @pitdesi @mattturck @semil @ileri @cyantist @chrija its BTV... and @iamjakestream is the legit one ;)
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Proven GPs and future legends in the making
A* @kevinhartz
Adjacent @ncsh
BTC @pitdesi
Firstmark @mattturck
Haystack @semil
Hummingbird @ileri
Long Journey @cyantist
Point Nine @chrija
Colin Gardiner@ColinGardiner
Who are Tier 1 VC funds? (updated) Sequoia Benchmark a16z Founders Fund Khosla Accel Lightspeed General Catalyst NEA Kleiner Perkins Index Thrive GV USV Bessemer Greylock First Round Insight Contenders / rising stars / sector-dependent: Menlo Craft 8VC Sutter Hill Conviction Elad Gil Neo Eclipse HF0 Ribbit Lux Redpoint Forerunner Coatue Still not ranking them, and sector/stage matters a lot. This reflects comments from my last post. Who is still obviously missing or in the wrong spot?
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@patrick_oshag Have you read the Dungeon Crawler Carl series?
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Anyone read anything really great lately (any format)?
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This will end poorly
Jeff Weinstein 🇺🇸@Jeffreyw5000
As I was saying about venture's Nifty Fifty moment...
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@dkimerling @iPaulLee Loyalty isn’t an option, it’s the whole point
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Hearing more stories of GPs dropping early LPs after success to “upgrade” their LP base in later funds.
If you do this, you suck.
Those early LPs took real risk on you and your success was only possible because of them.
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@wolfejosh Have you read his unpublished bio of Don Valentine?
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Legendary @sequoia VC Mike Moritz published maybe his most important book ever.
A life and family story.
This opening hit me hard.
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@kwharrison13 In our second fund, we have 4 positions over 10%
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Pop quiz. Who can guess the most concentrated venture fund I’ve seen in a long time?
One fund has three 10% positions. Another has 60% invested in just two companies.
Kyle Harrison@kwharrison13
Heat Seekers vs. Truth Seekers in Venture Capital
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I’ve made this point so many times, yet people seem to be surprised and/or don’t believe me
Dan Gray@credistick
It’s insane that this still needs explaining. Venture capital is not efficient. There is virtually no correlation between funding and outcome even up to Series A. Heat is mostly just bidding away returns.
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@km I just know how what they do is. And how often it works is just incredible
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ngl, United has been pushing the ball forward. This is terrific product marketing.
United Airlines@united
The entire row is alllllll yours. Welcome to United Relax Row, three adjacent United Economy seats with adjustable leg rests that can each be raised or lowered to create a cozy lie-flat space for stretching out... You'll also get a mattress pad, blanket and two pillows. If you’re traveling with kids, a plushie too! United Relax Row will be available starting next year on more than 200 of our 787s and 777s, each with up to 12 of these brand-new rows. united.com/Elevated
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I disagree.
Some founders repeatedly build exceptional companies, and certain investors consistently show up around them early. That pattern isn’t random.
Dan Kimerling@dkimerling
@iPaulLee i just think the idea that there are "best founders" is a bit off base.
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@iPaulLee i just think the idea that there are "best founders" is a bit off base.
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As I wrote to our LPs last year:
"A fast-growing company that never receives another round of VC funding after our investment (because it doesn’t need it) and is never in the press (because it chooses not to be) is a great outcome from where we sit. It is a win for LPs, shareholders, and other stakeholders."
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Rare breed in this market
Incentives are structured around mark-ups, not returns - that works for asset managers (more excuses to deploy $) and VCs hopping between firms, but really bad for emerging managers (where you live/die on carry)
To break away from that, you need to be more courageous than ever, but the alternative is putting a huge chunk of your net worth to waste
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Saying the quiet part out load...respect
Morgan Livermore@MorgLiv
The top 10 private companies capture 76% of all secondary demand. That's not a market. That's a crowded trade with a nice name. At a dinner the other week, @PeterJ_Walker shared Cartа's data, which makes the bifurcation impossible to ignore: parabolic valuations at the top, hollowing of the middle. Some of the best companies aren't invisible because they're bad. They're invisible because the funds got too big to see them or lack the courage to be different. More thoughts on this in the comments.
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If you are an investor and want to spend 100% of your time working with founders, you should not start your own firm. It is not even remotely close to how you spend all of your time, even if you want to.
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@andrewparker Twilio would be another big win for USV.
Altos would be another example of a firm that is a counter case.
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@dkimerling Absolutely. I'd guess it's like Coinbase (Fred), Twitter (Fred), and Zynga (Fred)? Could also be Mongo (Albert) or Etsy (Albert&Fred)
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Name a VC firm's top 3 deals, and then see if the GP who led them is still there full-time.
I doubt a single major firm would go 3-for-3 (without significant revisionist history on who "led" a deal, like the politics on who led FB at Accel).
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Optimal venture firm tech stack (after trying a lot of providers):
-Bank: Stifel (fund)/ @rhobusiness (portcos)
-Fund Admin: Standish (hated AngelList for this)
-Management Co Accounting: Standish
-Legal: @Orrick
-Taxes: Moss Adams now Baker Tilly (funds)/ personal (@fifteenth_tax)
-CRM: Streak (Hated Affinity and Attio)
-SPVs: @AngelList
-Platform for Portcos: @NotionHQ
-Sourcing: @clay mostly for some outbound
-Brand/logo: @elanmiller
-Website design/pitch decks: @alexbanaga/ EatCaviar dot co (raised three funds with him)
-Payroll: @joinwarp
-401k: Still hate every option but @humaninteresthq sucks the least
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