Crumbs

@orrdavid Is this $PENG ? Lol

One of my shorts is an AI loser. One of their main business lines is buying commodity memory from other companies, putting their brand on it and then selling it to small time retail customers. They have no long term contracts or much inventory. Their headwind is obvious: the price they have to pay for this memory is going up a lot, so the end price they'll charge the consumer will go up a lot, and the consumer will order way less than they used to. They got a single very brief, one time improvement in margins because old inventory is worth more. But again, they don't have much inventory. Maybe for a single quarter, maybe two. The market seemed to realize that and the company didn't react much to the "good" earnings. Now, however, the company is just claiming to sell "AI hardware" and the stock has gone up over 100%. Overall my shorts are going well, so I'm not complaining here. It's more a warning that the market might be entering the phase where simply adding AI to your product could make the stock run.

@MartinShkreli @0xMasonH Is it not that valuable because it is not effective? Or because it is a one time intervention that prevent you to sell statins for a lifetime?

@0xMasonH eh this is not that valuable, no one wanted it, lilly didnt pay much for it

It's a shame that this is likely 6-8 years from hitting the market

@bubbleboi Well positioned to miss the next 10 bagger

Photonics is the next quantum. Meaning it’s going to get decades of R&D and nothing will come from it.

@AndreasSteno @tomhfh What is median GDP per capita? This isn’t about lifestyle, this is about output.

Another journalist with no understanding of numbers. This is an apple versus pears comparison. If you look at the median rather than the mean, which is what actually reflects how most people live, the picture changes quite a bit. Once you also account for unavoidable out of pocket costs like healthcare and education, life in the US looks much more average, and often falls behind Northern European countries for the typical person. The US model clearly creates immense wealth at the very top, but for the vast majority of people, median living standards are what really matter. And by that measure, the story is far less impressive than it is often made out to be.

Europoor is an entirely accurate phrase. America is simply in a different league.

@aghdbtudhf @SteadyEddy73435 @BamaBonds But at expiry the the loading date will be roughly the same right? dated brent on the 30th will be very close to the settlement of ICE brent or am I missing something? Is it that the index calculation uses the EFP of the active M2 month instead of the expiring M1?

@SteadyEddy73435 @BamaBonds Probably not. But I can. June ICE = cheapest to deliver cargo landing/loading in calendar June. Dated = cheapest rolling 10-30 physical price = lowest differential + North Sea strip. Timing doesn’t match and grades can be different (usually aren’t). Also, freight different.

Unless you are actually a dated Brent trader (maybe 100 or so specialists in the world or less?), obsessing over this usually little-followed benchmark (like the famous Baltic Dry Index) will likely cost you a lot of money if you are an energy or macro tourist.

@bryan_johnson Would you manage to do that regularly? Daily?

Felt like I was going to die in the sauna this morning. Experiment: time to reach a core body temp of 102.2°F (39°C) > with ice on face and neck: 38 min > no ice on face and neck: 33 min Dry sauna at 195°F Will graph data and share. Some unexpected things. How it felt 👇

@Blinklebloop @jukan05 Replacing cutlery only help on april fools

@jukan05 It’s it monsoon season soon? How tf do they have a drought. When I was there it thunder showered like 5 times a day, rain came down in buckets

If TSMC were to be disrupted by drought, I think today’s AI capex boom could effectively come to a halt. Not only would the memory supercycle collapse, it would be a genuine disaster.

@dcfgod Why is the buyback so slow?

There will be a repricing event when yall realize - this team is here to stay and it’s safe to hold for more than a week - all the value is for the token and they genuinely believe that - they’re spending on growth is extremely calculated - growth is continuing in this market - tvl on the restaking side looks crazy as eth goes up again - there are no more investor unlocks - they have real users that aren’t on ct and will launch a trading product to them - there are basically no other teams in crypto that just added $100m revenue business lines and didn’t slap a new token/raise on it Salgidadgadze mode Note: dcf cap seeded etherfi

@qthomp It is too easy to block the strait of hormuz. They have plenty of drones and they can relatively easily build more. They have the infrastructure to hide and launch them. You add a few ballistic missiles from time to time and no one wants to cross the strait.

I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due to recency bias. If Iran's response is already declining, let's say US launches another big weekend operation as Trump and Hegseth have alluded to, wouldn't that reduce Iran's capabilities even further? Note this is different than saying there's going to be a ceasefire and negotiations soon. I don't know. Just seems like we may be reaching the climax of events and it may transition to a simmering pot from a ferociously boiling one. Very short-term speculation here but if that happens, you could see vol crush and mechanical rebuying on Monday/Tuesday. That's one of the reasons I've been buying a lot of $GDX and $SLV today.

@Tintincapital I like ALEC they were awarded the first 5% of the stargate project in Abu Dhabi. Guiding 50% revenue growth in 2026

Well it appears I can't buy securities on UAE exchanges. But if you can then here are 4 names to add to your watch list. They are some of the finest quality companies I have ever come across. Not sexy. Not high growth. Just super high quality/scarce assets. 1. $DEWA: The electrical grid and water supplier for UAE. 75% owned by gov. Unlike shitty US utilities, they have lots of cash flow despite ambitious capex projects. Their desalination plants, etc are irreplaceable. Dividends are flat at $6,200/yr until 2027 as part of IPO agreement. At that point, dividend policy will likely be a % payout of FCF. Some risk but also significant upside risks. My Buy Price: $2.4 2. $EMPOWER: like $dewa but water specific. Again, unlike US water utilities, this company has positive consistent cash flow. Reminds some of Brasil 's $sbs but even better. 50% owned by $dewa. Similar issue w/ dividend. Buy Price: $1.45 3. $SALIK: UAE's toll road for interstates. FCF machine with majority gov ownership stake. Buy price: $4.50 4. $EMAAR: A real estate development Corp with irreplaceable assets like the tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa. Also owner of the 'most visited mall on Earth', the Dubai Mall. Huge margins. Almost too good to be true. Buy Price: $14.5

@DeItaone It sounds like praise coming from Putin.

PUTIN CALLS KHAMENEI'S DEATH A CYNICAL MURDER IN VIOLATION OF ALL STANDARDS OF HUMAN MORALITY AND INTERNATIONAL LAW - TASS

@DreadBong0 @JacobKinge He liked calling himself a billionaire, he got scared of not being one any more

@JacobKinge I'm asking myself why did he wait for the price to crash 50% before cashing out?

One of the oldest recorded Bitcoin whales just sold his entire $1.24 billion BTC stack. He’s held through every market cycle since Bitcoin was created in 2009. Now he’s cashing out. Ask yourself why.

@atelicinvest I think it is a big deal for training. I believe a lot of the inference, maybe the majority, is used for training. So maybe the use case is not that important for humans but is a big thing to train the next smarter big model.

I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do the stupid thing. I think this is prob where we learn. Speed is not the bottleneck here. It doesn't matter if you can build a game of snake in 2 seconds vs 200. I know people are going to say all sorts of stuff like "this is a game changer" - because it really pops. And in some narrow situations this is useful. But ... for what % of projects / people is the token output speed the real bottleneck? Maybe I'm just unimaginative.

@elonmusk If AI become self sufficient on the moon, is this considered consciousness?

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars. It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city. That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

The thing is most of these software also have opensource free version, but they are a bit worse, and there isn’t anyone to hold your hand to deploy them. On one hand you could argue that it makes saas safe, there is already cheaper alternatives and they are fine. On the other hand you could imagine that the vibe coding reach a point that it is so easy to build on top of the opensource (which will also get better) that you can have a one man in charge of the software to tweak it to your exact needs.

i’m absolutely loving the saas apocalypse discussions on the timeline right now. to me the whole saas apocalypse via vibe coding internally narrative is mostly a distraction & quite nonsensical. no company will want to manage payroll or bug tracking software. but the real potential threat to almost all saas is brutalized competition. i.e. ai doesn’t need to magically recreate salesforce. it just needs to make it trivial for tiny teams to deliver functionally equivalent outcomes at a fraction of the cost. once that happens, pricing power potentially collapses. imagine payroll… today you’re paying a fat margin for “trust + compliance + saas software” that increases prices so fucking often. like we have a startup & everyone is charging us up the ass for everything on a per seat basis. you can imagine tomorrow a 2 person shop empowered by ai can ship the same output, hit the same regulatory checkboxes, & charge 70% less because their cost structure is basically nil. today saas margins exist because: - engineering was scarce - compliance was gated - distribution was expensive ai nukes all three in many ways, especially if you’re charging significantly less & know what the fuck you are doing when using ai. if you go to a company & say we will cut your fucking payroll bill by 50%, they will fucking listen. the market will likely get flooded with credible substitutes, forcing prices down until the business model itself looks pretty damn suspect. someone smarter than me educate me on why this won’t happen please.

@johnsontrades_ @duckman1717 Most of the web services could have been written in a few weeks by a single dev, I don’t think the fact that they can do it in a day changes much.

@duckman1717 What I'm thinking. I can easily recreate an app of Docusign $DOCU or Duolingo in a couple of hours with Codex.

My Take on Software: I do firmly believe that many software companies will perish due to AI. Jensen can't say that on air because those are his buyers lol. Cmon. I have said this before, stuff like $ADBE, $DOCU, $ZM, $CRM will be dinosaurs and likely be decimated. Like Toys-R-Us when $AMZN started selling toys online. This is only if Agentic AI takes off which many are forecasting this will happen. $DOCN and $AMTM look the best to me as of right now. Cybersecurity stocks I think would be un-afflicted. One of the largest concerns for the sector is that it's trading in a bear market while the indices are near highs. That is never good. . .

@CryptoNobler @biancoresearch That is such a stupid take. For each contract buyer there is a seller. The only way to acquire a new bitcoin is to mine it.

🚨 HERE’S WHY BITCOIN IS NONSTOP DUMPING RIGHT NOW If you still think $BTC trades like a supply-and-demand asset, you MUST read this carefully. Because that market no longer exists. What you’re watching right now is not normal price action. It’s not “weak hands.” It’s not sentiment. And it’s definitely not retail selling. Most people are completely unaware what’s happening. And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is already done. This move didn’t start today. It’s been building quietly under the surface for months. And now it’s accelerating. Here’s the truth: The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone. And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives. That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin. And it’s the same structural break that already happened to: → Gold → Silver → Oil → Equities Once derivatives took over. The original Bitcoin thesis is broken. Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two ideas: → A hard cap of 21 million → No rehypothecation That framework died the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain: → Cash-settled futures → Perpetual swaps → Options → ETFs → Prime broker lending → Wrapped BTC → Total return swaps From that point forward Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE. Not on-chain. But in price discovery, which is what actually matters. Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR). The metric that explains everything. Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer responds to demand. It responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows. Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin. They’re not guessing direction. They’re doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market: 1⃣ Create unlimited paper BTC 2⃣ Short into rallies 3⃣ Force liquidations 4⃣ Cover lower 5⃣ Repeat This isn’t “betting.” It’s inventory manufacturing. One real BTC can now simultaneously back: → An ETF share → A futures contract → A perpetual swap → An options delta → A broker loan → A structured note All at THE SAME TIME. That’s six claims on one coin. That is not a free market. That is a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask. Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned. I’ve been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade now, and I’ll do it again in 2026. Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.

@COWBS @smartestmoney The hyperliquid cabal pushing for the end of Binance will end up killing crypto. Retail will just close their binance account and never buy crypto anymore.

CZ wants you to believe that the opinions of small accounts voicing their frustrations about Binance don't really matter because they don't have a following. Well, let's see what happens if the majority of the small accounts on Binance get deleted. I convinced over 20 friends to delete their Binance accounts this week, and i'm not stopping until there's no one in my circle that trades on this exchange.

@aleabitoreddit Will people blame CZ for selling their silver and triggering liquidation? Should he buy 1 billion of silver?

Silver ended the day down over 28.54% Here's why Silver / $SLV crashed today: Jan 13th: CME shifted from fixed-dollar margin to percentage based margin. This scaled collat requirements with contract value, effectively capping leverage as it goes higher. The capital required to maintain a single COMEX contract increased in tandem, creating an environment where even minor price drops would trigger massive margin calls. Jan 27th: CME had increased the maintenance margin percentage twice this week to ensure "adequate collateral coverage" amid extreme volatility. This forced leveraged positions to liquidate their long positions or post substantial additional capital. There were five margin hikes within nine days that created a "coiled spring" of potential selling pressure. Today: Western markets focused on the Federal Reserve, but the new Fed chair likely did not play much of an impact as this is just noise. Pricing dislocations happened in Asian markets. UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund traded at 36-64% premiums over SHFE contracts. And this was the main source of silver exposure in China. On January 30, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange implemented an emergency full-day trading halt for the SDIC Silver LOF. This suspension created a "liquidity trap" for Chinese institutional and retail traders. Unable to liquidate their domestic holdings, these participants were forced to dump $SLV and COMEX futures to raise cash or hedge their exposure. TLDR: The $SLV crash of January 30, 2026 today was not a failure of silver's fundamental value, but a failure of the "paper game" that dictated price discovery. CME hiking margin requirements repeatedly and the China liquidity trap led to cascading margin liquidations that caused selloffs of leveraged positions. Other events such as the Fed chair was likely known awhile, looks to be "narrative noise" regarding what actually happened. Today was a "Paper Game" failure and leverage used to trade it was systematically wiped out by exchange rules.

@n1c0cs @Cbb0fe I would like to know as well

@Cbb0fe How’d you go from etherfi to ibkr?

Etherfi is the best product I ever used in crypto and this is not even close I used to have anxiety when having to off-ramp crypto Etherfi makes my stables accessible at a fingerprint Yesterday it took 6 hours only to off-ramp USDC from Etherfi to IBKR Big W (no I'm not paid)