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s/o to @TheDeFinvestor for finding this
polymarket.com/event/what-pri…
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Day 464: A good way to hedge your Bitcoin exposure is to buy "NO" shares on Polymarket.
I hold bitcoin but I dont believe BTC would trade above 100k this year. Therefore it makes sense to me to buy 150 NO shares for every 0.01 BTC i hold.
Example if you hold 1 bitcoin: ($73.800)
Scenario BTC PNL NO shares
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BTC >100k +26.2k -8.7k =17.5k
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BTC <100k 0 +15k =15k
Of course, this strategy only makes sense if you already hold Bitcoin, but nonetheless the R/R is very good.

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@ruggedpikachu I pray for the fall of every team that keeps doing that (not hyperliquid)
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At a high level, everything is keying off crude prices, which are being manipulated lower as prices do not reflect the risk that still remains. Have to acknowledge the admin's proficiency in bending markets towards their will.
This is reflective of the paradigm we are in: one where markets are less free. It's a difficult setup to trade, when the desired government result and fundamentals are opposed, especially knowing the government could decisively end the whole situation on a whim. I prefer situations where government goals and market fundamentals are both aligned in the same direction. I am doing nothing here, mostly in cash. Risk of getting chopped is high.
High level read on 2026 is a difficult late cycle market, and stylistically this demands patience for high R/R spots, and grinding out quick TPs for anything else. As I already am up a lot for the year, makes it easier to sit back and be more selective.
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@VonMaketh @SignoreGondi Just 1 suggestion. Make people aware faster. There was no ping for all at first announcement, neither a fast twitter post. I got informed by a friend, would have preferred to know it from gondi.
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@HarveyMackinto2 @Polymarket Same happened to me! Literally buying the NO at 105$. Was taking out the resting order but i never got the shares
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We got another phone alert in Dubai, warning of potential missile threats #OOTT
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@Amena__Bakr Night, was one of the most crazy session in 10years of oil trading
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Day 457: This bet can generate 98% ROI with less than ~2% downside risk.
Polymarket currently has two MegaETH markets expiring June 30. The idea is simple:
BUY YES: MegaETH airdrop by June 30 (odds 65.3%)
BUY NO: MegaETH above $800M FDV one day after launch (odds 36.5%)
Total cost: 101.8c
Here are the possible outcomes if you buy 1000 shares of both (cost: $1018):
1) MegaETH launches after June 30 → Lose $18
2) MegaETH launches before June 30 and trades above $800M FDV → Lose $18
3) MegaETH launches before June 30 and trades below $800M FDV → Win $982
One of the best R/R setups I can find right now especially if you think BTC will go lower over the next few months.

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@EmmaMAshford @Amena__Bakr @gbrew24 @NicoleGrajewski @EnergzdEconomy @RKelanic @JavierBlas @DEsfandiary @hdagres @barbaraslavin1 All the oil experts are woman aside 1? Hmmmm
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I see that everyone on here is now an Iran and oil expert.
In the interests of good analysis, here’s some folks to follow on both: @gbrew24 @NicoleGrajewski @EnergzdEconomy @RKelanic @JavierBlas @Amena__Bakr @DEsfandiary @hdagres @barbaraslavin1
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Life options:
> Dubai, generous, but deeply corrupted inside
> HK, something if you like asians
> Singapore, repressed kinks, autism
> Europe, wholesome, kinda poor, still good
> London, comfortable and predictable, strong accent, risk averse
> Italy, like Brazil but doesn’t need passport
> Russia, distant, might disappear without notice
> Portugal, simple and pure inside, maybe lives with mom
> USA, 50/50, flaky, self centred, self sufficient, stubborn, worth it for the odd one out
> Australia, fit but accent, tourist
> Brazil, hot but a liability that’s likely to cheat after better passport
If you ask me:
- Europe
- USA, with heavy filter
- London, if you are ok with accent
- Hong Kong, if you like asian men
- Dubai, if you are VERY open minded
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@Picolas_Caged yes deira, the best part of dubai, the current dubai people simply wouldnt understand
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cat left dubai very early on (early 2010s)
back in 2000s, deira was beautiful, frequently had cuisine from expact lebanese, afghan, indian and chinese food, etc
rich people? there just started the idea of building sky scrapers
CL@CL207
the damage to dubai is going to be very obviously permanent at this point, a miracle would be needed most knew already but yes, is cat hometown, growing up in dubai in 2000- 2010s itll be the only time ill ever witness a city change that fast
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Both Kalshi and Polymarket raising new rounds at 20B valuations each.
That’s not gonna end well.
Don’t get me wrong, I love prediction markets. Genuinely one of the best use cases to come out of crypto and have the highest respect for both of these teams.
But mark-up round after mark-up round, each more disconnected from reality than the last, and the gaps between rounds getting shorter every time.
We all know how this ends: IPO at an insane valuation, bleeds from day one, retail holds the bag.
Can we not, just for once, not do this again?

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@Amena__Bakr So what you believe? Will they stop to attack close countries?
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