Ray Bariza
853 posts
Ray Bariza
@emonbariza
Passionate in Technology, Economy, Nature, Gym&sports, and most importantly people
Canada Katılım Eylül 2014
476 Takip Edilen172 Takipçiler
@emonbariza If that is your conclusion, then you did not read the article.
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@Jeffdav67447528 @KarelMercx why should paper owners do it? what is their motivations to short?🤔
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@KarelMercx Can you elaborate for us blue collar physical stackers that aren’t as technical savy?
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One of the strongest reversal signals in financial markets is divergence.
Silver is dropping like a stone, while the 1Y silver swap minus US rates is falling again.
Silver price gets pushed around by paper selling. The swap measures physical tightness and leads price.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
1Y silver swap rates should be positive, but they are now more than 3% negative. The last time it got this extreme was about six weeks ago. Silver is crashing, but multiple data points still signal a shortage of physical silver. Read below why this swap matters.
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@harari_yuval Noah, in your book to 21 lessons for 21 century, you brought a strong reasoning that the nations will not go to war again, could you please explain Russian Ukraine war and then USA Israel, Iran war ? what changed that did not go exactly aligned with your forecast?
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The past few decades have been the first time in human history that states have consistently spent more on their citizens’ health than on war. With the threats to Greenland and Taiwan, and the wars in Ukraine and Iran, are we entering a new imperial era where countries must again focus their resources on weapons?
From Building Trust in the Age of Disinformation – What Future Awaits Us? With Prof. Marijana Grbeša in October 2025. Watch the whole thing - bit.ly/YNH-IMC
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@benwyatt1982 @DaveHcontrarian David, If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, does it begin to crumble into global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem? or do you think it will reopen much faster?
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@DaveHcontrarian does the increase in oil prices give you any concerns about the gold and silver miners?
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@KarelMercx @Direction_Media Karel, I heard some firms have lots of ETFs owned(e.g Jane Street) hence having lots of influence in the silver market, any thoughts?
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@Direction_Media In the short term, ETF investors decide where silver goes. If they sell 250 million ounces, silver goes a lot lower. If they buy 250 million ounces, silver goes a lot higher.
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Investors dumped 3.8 million ounces of physical silver through ETFs yesterday. The striking part is that the lease rate and the 1-year silver forward swap still refuse to normalize despite those daily sales. That tells you professional physical silver buyers are still there. Sprott silver investors are extremely bearish and dumping their silver at a 6% discount to spot, while silver keeps leaving COMEX every single day. Staying long is not hard.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
Silver has built strong support at $70 in recent months. There was one washout to $63, but it still closed back above $70. Even after the brutal sell-off in recent days, a few million more ounces left COMEX yesterday. $70 has to hold. If ETFs dump hard, we have a problem.
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@emonbariza There is a 90-95% probability we have seen the lows today!
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Gold and silver are declining today primarily due to U.S. dollar strength and rising Treasury yields, which reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. The recent surge in crude oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions is fueling inflation expectations, delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. This shift is pressuring metals short term despite longer-term bullish fundamentals. From a VC PMI perspective, prices are moving toward extreme levels below the mean, activating high-probability mean reversion zones. This decline reflects liquidation and repositioning rather than structural weakness.
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@GoldCore @DaveHcontrarian David, If I may ask, We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility.
In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. why gold and silver act as neutral reserve assets? what has changed?
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One macro strategist believes the biggest move in precious metals may still be ahead. In a recent interview, @DaveHcontrarian says he now sees gold reaching $6,800 and silver potentially hitting $180, driven by a falling dollar and collapsing bond yields. His reasoning is worth hearing. Watch the interview.
youtu.be/SoZIpt_CElE
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@emonbariza @sabrina53009376 @Caz1177 @Reidaround @PalisadesRadio I should just say they will get there when they get there because no matter how many times I say that timeframe is my best guess at the time and not part of the forecast, that's still what you focus on.
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Here's my latest interview recorded 3/11/26 with Stijn Schmitz @PalisadesRadio. Talked about my current market outlook,Iran,my metals outlook,rates,the coming global bust & what lies beyond. youtube.com/watch?v=JYAZq4…
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@DaveHcontrarian @sabrina53009376 @Caz1177 @Reidaround @PalisadesRadio David I know its hard to predict timing, however I heard in your last interview, that there is high confidence that your targets will be met by 2026 labour day or sokner, is this concivtion still intact?
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@sabrina53009376 @Caz1177 @Reidaround @PalisadesRadio My current miner targets are GDX $180, GDXJ $250, SIL $220, SILJ $90. My gold target is $6800 and silver target $180.
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Every low in the US 30-year yield is higher than the last.
Even total chaos in the Middle East is not enough to push investors into US government debt.
My view: yields break higher, the Fed steps in, and then the precious metals rally continues.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
Trump is once again making it clear that NATO is on the line if Europe refuses to do what Washington wants. Russia now has well over 120 million barrels of oil at sea that it no longer has to dump at a discount. For the next 30 days, that oil can be sold, and in some cases Russian crude is already trading at a premium to Brent on top of an oil price that had already exploded higher. This is a gift to Russia. Europe is trapped either way. If Europe launches a military mission in the Middle East, it will have less money, less equipment, less political focus, and less room to support Ukraine. That raises the risk in the Baltics. If Europe refuses, Trump tears apart NATO, and that also raises the risk of Russian action. Either way, Russia wins. Americans voted massively for Trump because they did not want a major war with Iran. Now they have exactly that. The midterms will be brutal, if the midterms happen at all. Last year, during the riots in major cities, I already thought the odds of the midterms taking place were below 100%. I think those odds have fallen even further. This is obviously disastrous for the world, but it will push gold and silver even higher.
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Question for the mining investment pros. If there was ONE key signal that tells you most when mining stocks are about to break out and for a sustained period (as opposed to a fake out) what would it be? You can be more nuanced and break it down b/n seniors and juniors if you wish. And I just want to say THANK YOU so much for sharing your wisdom with us mortals! @DonDurrett @juniorminingpro @ClemChambers @AmandaVandyke13 @Sorenthek @TheGoldAdvisor @IJCarrasco @DVSignals @GoldForecast @TheNextBigRush @MilesFranklinCo @badcharts1 @peter_krauth @LynAldenContact @NorthstarCharts @TaviCosta @PeterGrandich @RealRickRule @duediligenceguy @Oliver_MSA @silverguru22 @barometerca @mbateman @SteveBarton101 @ASX__Trader @capnek123 @DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio @KarelMercx @finding_finance @gnoble79 @GaryBohm5
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@DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio Thanks David,
regarding oil, even if war ends and Hormuz stait opens, it still takes time to restart shutdown productions and repair dameged oil producing assets, maybe months, then can oil prices really back to normal fast?
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@TerribleMaps One truck - 250 barrels.
One ship - 2 million barrels.
Number of trucks needed for one ship's worth of oil: 800 trucks.
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@DaveHcontrarian David, thanks for great interview
I also read the comments/questions. It looks many questions are around USA/Israel/Iran war and that it should reach to an end for markets to start moving up.
sorry if this is a repeated question; what is your prospect of when/how war will end?
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Here is my latest interview recorded 3/5/26 with Kerry Stevenson of Making Money Matter. Lots of good discussion about the impact of the war and my views on U.S. equity markets & the metals as well as comments about the coming global deflationary bust. youtube.com/watch?v=WGj2gI…
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Silver 🥈 — short term prediction — looks to be coiling to a decision point in mid-March 👀
Probably get a retest of $74.40 in the near term, make a couple new higher lows, then a new higher high in the recovery trend — really just chopping people up. No second huge crash to break the April 2025 arc, but no new all time high until after Q2.
Battles at $96, battles at $111, retests galore, then finally a new all time high at $139 in July before another major correction to $111 or maybe $96 at the worst.
Whatever becomes the dominant narrative on fintwit, it will likely do the opposite.
Since it seems fairly split between bears calling for lower than $64 and bulls calling for rapid new ATHs, neither will be correct.
As always, the major trend truly depends on GOLD/USD, SPX/GOLD, and SPX/SILVER more so than SILVER/USD. GOLD/USD still looks good, and the ratios still look bearish and good for metals.
Buy the dips and hold remains the winning strategy.
For the good of the order 🫡
Dr. Potassium@potassium_phd
Silver 🥈 — through crystalline meditation, the labradorite revealed to me last night that after battling through $96 and $111 during Q2, silver will reach $139 by July 🧘🏼♂️ It has been foretold 🔮 For the good of the order 🫡
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Silver regained horizontal resistance today, but failed to hold. Presently it might be forming a higher low. Hopefully more stability comes into PM market tomorrow...
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$AG - Monthly. The whole pattern is accumulation it would seem. Painful false breakdown below the trend where the sharks fed. Now making a home atop all time highs as silver is finding its footing. The magnitude.....😂😂😂
Silverbark #fixourmoney #silversqueeze@Silverbark3
$AG First Majestic #Silver - this is methodical accumulation. Be on the look out for some kind of washout before a move that makes 2016 blush. Personal opinion - not advice :)
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@ThHappyHawaiian If it happens… I not only retire, but also will buy you a great 🎁
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$200 silver by June 30th update
TheHappyHawaiian@ThHappyHawaiian
$200 silver by June 30th update:
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