François Bernier

this is my quant. ✨immaculate✨

The Polls are WRONG and Pierre Poilievre is WINNING. Here's why: Juno Polls pioneered the neighbour poll in this election. During our weekly poll, we began asking people who they thought their neighbour was voting for. This accomplishes two things: 1. It picks up on enthusiasm -- what are your friends and family talking about, who has more lawn signs in your community, what are you seeing on social media? You could personally be a Liberal voter, but aware of the CPC signs all over your neighbourhood, hearing stories of crime, young Canadians locked out of the housing market and people ready for a change. 2. It helps get around response bias. The legacy media established early on that the ballot box question was Trump Trump Trump. They told the Canadian public "elbows up" & that Carney was the man for the job. But many Canadians saw through this narrative and still wanted to vote based on Canadian issues like cost of living, crime, ending mass immigration, developing our natural resources, etc. This created the "shy Tory" effect, where people leaning Conservative told pollsters what they wanted to hear: "I'm voting for Mark Carney" — which artificially boosted his poll numbers. Our Juno Neighbour Poll consistently had Pierre Poilievre between 40% and 45%, with the Liberals between 33% and 38%. Our final Neighbour Poll had the CPC at 40% and the Libs at 38%. Interestingly, one of Canada's most trusted pollsters -- David Coletto of Abacus Data -- followed our lead and conducted his own Neighbour Poll this week. His results were even stronger for the Conservatives. He found the Conservatives with 44% to the Liberals 40%. The polling models used by the big polling companies are obviously wrong. They over sample older Canadians and the laptop class — the ones more likely to pick up a call from an unknown caller or complete an online survey. They likewise under sample younger Canadians and working class voters — the ones too busy to waste their time with a pollster. The demographics of this election show the Liberals leading among the 55+ crowd and with women — i.e. the same people overrepresented in the polls — while the Conservatives lead with blue collar workers and young Canadians. That’s why I think our Neighbour Poll hit the nail on the head. It picked up on something the fancy pollsters missed — and now some like David Coletto are scrambling to capture in order to save face and hedge against a major embarrassment. Anything can happen on Election Day, so this thing is far from over and certainly not in the bag for the Conservatives. But I believe our polls were right all along, that Carney’s inflated poll numbers were always a mirage, and that Poilievre has the lead and the advantage heading into the final weekend.