Flank Bruno

@investingidiocy that's the same as saying this only affect the people that meaningfully provide risk capital... and its precisely that group whose incentives change.

This will only affect people with more than £68,000 of post tax income to invest annually (48k sipp, 20k isa). By definition that is a tiny proportion of the population.

@DanNeidle This has never been less true and even if it were, framing it as if a zero impact on implicit risk/reward calculus of entrepreneurship is gross: "Very few people starting a company today think about what the CGT consequences would be when they sell it in say fifteen years time".

Stunned, appalled, shocked etc to see actual tax reform from a politician. This from Wes Streeting today. A thread on why capital gains tax is broken. It's too low AND too high. & why this is a good proposal.

@64s @0xgaut oh yes, because buyers famously waive good title and authority 🙄. pity the seller who ends up having to make the buyer whole on gross out of his after tax proceeds.

@0xgaut do they get to keep the cash from the sale? meaning not only is the bad sale (below current market) voided, but also they get the cash from that sale - because they just sold a token that is worth nothing?

Anthropic shareholders who thought they sold their stock 60x ago but the sale was just voided

@DrDiGiorgio @RichardGlyn99 thats what an inevitably imperfect “universal healthcare” is. also if you’re rich you can already access high quality private care in all the countries you listed.

@RichardGlyn99 Would never argue otherwise. So let’s bring the poor up rather than try to bring the rich down.

This is the ultimate midwit healthcare take. No, 32 countries have not “figured out” universal healthcare. The UK has “free” healthcare, and roughly 1 in 3 cancer patients in England still fail to start treatment within 62 days of urgent referral. Canada has “free” healthcare, and the median wait for neurosurgical treatment is around a year. Australia has “free” healthcare, and over half the country still buys private insurance despite paying for a public universal system with their taxes. Switzerland has universal coverage, because residents are required to buy private insurance. There is no government system where benevolent bureaucrats tuck you in at night with a warm blanket and an MRI appointment. The actual lesson from other wealthy countries is not “they figured it out.” America’s system has huge problems. Our prices are insane, insurance markets are distorted, and hospital systems are cartelized. Our regulations make care more expensive than it needs to be. Yet we still guarantee access to even the 8% who don’t have coverage. We give easy routes to qualify for medicaid for those with disabilities. Pretending the rest of the world solved healthcare because they slapped the word “universal” on a rationing scheme is not analysis. It is bumper sticker policy for people who think access means having a card in your wallet while you wait a year to see the doctor you need.

@DrewCohenMoney disagree, it’s written as though replacement costs are immune from the same forces bringing down development cost. migrations, integrations, implementations etc get cheaper for the same reasons.

Best two sentences in David Poppe's letter. It gets at the heart of the SaaS debate so cleanly.

@MarkRuddStaffs @cristo_radio yes some lay vacant… am in this position with a london apartment, now vacant by choice and not for sale. not irrational behiavior. in my circle i know of other that are not “professional landlords” that have taken the same view. intermediate term supply squeeze on rental market

@cristo_radio Have those homes been demolished, burned down? Lay vacant? Are buy-to-let property speculators going to pay their own loans and mortgages? I don't think so. They're now on the purchase market. Perhaps some families will now escape the clutches of parasites like you.

Everyone deserves a safe, secure place to call home. That’s why I’m so proud that our Labour government is building council homes, while protecting renters from unfair eviction and unaffordable rent increases. Vote Labour this 7 May so we can keep building together 🌹

@boat460 @systematicls obviously neg ev/tax on hope. but his point is the lifetime cost is near zero in quality of life terms. positive QoL-adjusted EV if one substituted a negative vice for lottery. ;)

@systematicls Most Iotteries are a tax for people who don’t know statistics

@gregoryblotnick really well written given the info density

@gregoryblotnick @negligible_cap really well written given the info density.

the problem with multiples vs DCF: terminal value = ~75% of S&P 500 equity value (per GS, h/t @negligible_cap)

@pretzelfallacy @rhunterh sp500 ex-US revenue and net margin are each directionally appx ~2x today what they were in 1980.

@rhunterh Imagine if there were a farm. And then there were chickens. And then I said the future eggs are priced at 230 times the entire output value of the whole farm, even though there are also cows and donkeys and horses, and the chickens might not be around in future.

I love PTJ and Buffett but it's never really made sense to me why the discounted future earnings of all publicly traded US companies over a single year's GDP would tell you much of anything

I found the ultimate European "Glitch" stock. 🇦🇹 $1.3B Market Cap. $2.5B Order Backlog. +1 They just dumped their low-margin hardware biz to become a high-margin IoT Software beast. Record cash flows. Trading at ~11x earnings while growing double digits. M&A optionality The crowd is obsessed with US Tech at 50x earnings. I'm buying the backbone of the European smart-grid and defence rail for a pittance. Kontron AG This is how you find hidden gems. 🤖📈

@McclaneDet @business set of “capable” actors goes up many OOM as skill/resource/cost of exploit dev becomes a non-constraint. every theo-exploitable vuln past and present is no longer theo… def increases risk.

Anthropic’s models do not increase cyber risk. The security issues have always been there, no one wanted to spend the money to find them with humans. An AI model can find them faster but they do not create new risk nor have they somehow broken into a system in any new way a human can’t.

EXCLUSIVE: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Samsung Electronics reports 57 trillion won in operating profit for the first quarter. ($37.8 billion)

@SmallCapScience this is not new and how spr exchange returns work. you get access to spr release today but have to put back in more barrels than you took later.

The US Energy Secretary confirmed in an interview today that The US has been selling short term oil contracts. Arbitraging longterm contracts earned 20% yield on the SPR release, which happened to start today. Flattening the futures curve will keep oil prices higher for longer.

@FrankTalk46 @MichaelAArouet more than that even, between £100k to ~125k the marginal tax rate is ~60% due to the tax free personal allowance tapering down, that’s without child factoring in childcare.

@MichaelAArouet They put it in a pension and get 40% tax relief

This is unreal. Believe it or not, in London parents are trying to reduce their income because they are better off earning £99k than £144k. The UK is on track to replace Germany as Europe's champion of absurdities. How is this even possible?

@ptuomov especially given the ~10y old bloomberg coverage on backdoored motherboards in supply chain that found there way to DoD systems also pointed at SMCI.

I somehow feel that this should be a bigger story in the WSJ…

@ceoofbitcoin111 it's not called sp500 unless it comes from the fidi region of manhattan, otherwise it's just sparkling beta

OK, well. I ran /autoresearch on the the liquid codebase. 53% faster combined parse+render time, 61% fewer object allocations. This is probably somewhat overfit, but there are absolutely amazing ideas in this.

You've seen the story that the Headhunters have been retained in recruiting Investment Bankers for an Economic Defense Unit. Here's the Deck going out to potential candidates:

Good article by @RishiSunak on the likely outcome of the Iran conflict. It seems increasingly likely that the US admin hasn’t thought this one through and we’ll live with the consequences.