Florian Bigge

past presidents needed years to lose a war.

A second day of marvelling at the swathe of German commentators who appear to believe that Friedrich Merz is responsible for the actions of the president of the United States.

Trump’s latest moves on trade and troops in Europe reconfirm two simple facts: no deal with Trump is worth the paper it’s written on & no degree of bending the knee to him makes an iota of a difference (other than shredding European dignity)

any strategic purpose of withdrawing 5,000 us troops from germany? no. trump feeling personally insulted by the german chancellor is the policy priority.

One-third of global fertilizers are stalled in the Strait of Hormuz. With planting seasons already underway, we have no time to lose. This is not a matter of logistics or economics – it's about saving lives. If we don't act, a massive food crisis will hit the most vulnerable the hardest. The UN is ready. Our mechanism to facilitate safe passage for these essential goods can be operational in just 7 days. We have the solution – now we need the collective will to implement it. Let’s get to work. My full interview with @UN_News_Centre 👇 bit.ly/48eBO5Y

Historian @TimothyDSnyder sums up a year of Trump choices and policies in one overall conceptual framework, which he calls “Superpower suicide.”

Today Germany published a military strategy—the first in postwar history—designed to steer the development of a Bundeswehr into which vast funds are being poured. Yesterday @shashj and I discussed it with Carsten Breuer, Germany's top soldier. My report economist.com/europe/2026/04…

They should change the name to "Strait of Schrödinger". It's both open and closed at the same time.

I told @raghavanreports that Iran is today led by a leadership, particularly in IRGC, who didn’t believe that Khamenei’s restraint, and the restraints of the previous generation of IRGC leaders that Israel eliminated, actually protected Iran. They think Khamenei was wrong, and that his stance invited the current aggression that they are facing. They’re more willing to take risks. They’re willing to do things that, previously, wouldn’t have been done, and basically saying, “You escalate, we escalate, or we escalate even more....They are more dangerous, but at the same time we’re seeing they’re not averse to talking. And maybe even more willing to talk than Khamenei who had a strategy of no talking and no war. The new leadership is basically saying, we’re not afraid of war, but we’re also not afraid of talking.

In my latest for @ForeignAffairs, I argue that a war intended, in part, to weaken #Iran and its regional network — Axis of Resistance — may instead strengthen the social and political conditions that sustain it foreignaffairs.com/iran/what-iran…

This feels like a tipping point in the history of war, the Agincourt of the 21st century.

The inflammatory use of language like the “destruction of a civilization” even if mere rhetorical tactic is morally wrong, illegal and counterproductive..The Iranian regime’s sole goal is its own survival. The Iranian people are fighting to keep and revive their civilization.

it looks bad for the us president to threaten genocide

Was hält die Bundesregierung von den genozidalen Drohungen des US-Präsidenten? Es kann sich noch als hilfreich erweisen, etwas dagegen gesagt zu haben. "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."

The President of the United States addresses the nation about the Islamic Republic of Iran, flanked by the Easter Bunny. We are living in a simulation.

before the war: supplies shipped directly from dubai to port sudan now: trucked through saudi arabia, barged across the red sea. 10 extra days. 25% higher cost. over 19 million sudanese face acute food insecurity.

The Iran war--and the way it is being waged--is "so clearly unlawful and deeply misguided." Glad to talk to Edward Wong for this @nytimes piece:

Applebaum's piece is worth reading slowly because the specific details are doing work that the summary can't. Danish military commanders - inside a NATO alliance the United States founded - had to sit in a room and war-game whether their forces would shoot down American planes and kill American soldiers. Some of them still haven't fully recovered from running that exercise. The most popular app in Denmark during Applebaum's visit was one that identifies American products so users know not to buy them. NATO has invoked Article 5 exactly once in its history. On behalf of the United States. After September 11th. Allied troops went to Afghanistan and some of them died there. Trump told reporters those allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines." The families of soldiers who didn't come back heard that. Now Trump is in the middle of a war in the Persian Gulf with the Strait of Hormuz locked, oil prices spiking, and he's telling NATO allies - the same ones he insulted and tariffed and threatened - that he's "demanding" they come help solve a problem his own decisions helped create. Applebaum's conclusion is precise: he doesn't connect what he does on one day to what happens weeks later. Allied leaders have drawn their conclusions. The rupture, as Mark Carney called it, isn't coming. It already happened.

Over 100 international lawyers (including me) warn that U.S. strikes on Iran violate the UN Charter and may be war crimes.

NEW STATEMENT | A Hormuz Initiative to Protect Global Food Security The Middle East conflict threatens global food security. @CrisisGroup and prominent individuals call for an initiative to ease the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. crisisgroup.org/stm/global/ira…