Contrarian Dude

Since Trump tweeted this, 3 trillion dollars have been added to the debt.

@HunsakerMiles @Nedsir1 @FredLambert Accelerator pushed is at best speculation. You're watching people with different cars and newer software drive this road in different weather. FSD is not deterministic, and will not reliably behave the same way twice.

@gregm12 @Nedsir1 @FredLambert It was up until it was disengaged by the driver whom then proceeded to still have the accelerator pedal pushed. The route has been driven three different times with perfect driving. One time it was disengaged at the speed sign and self slowed to a stop before the turn.

Tesla fans using the “4-second disengagement” as a gotcha are missing the forest for the trees. Yes, the driver was technically in control of the vehicle at the moment of impact. But she was in control because FSD was already failing by driving too fast ahead of this sharp turn — it was heading straight into a concrete barrier at highway speed with no sign of correcting. Everyone who has frequently used FSD or Autopilot and paints this 4-second disengagement as a “gotcha” moment is being disengenous, and that includes Elon Musk. I have tens of thousands of miles on FSD, and I’ve experienced the system coming too fast into a turn at least half a dozen times. We’ve said this before and we’ll keep saying it: the problem with FSD isn’t what happens when the driver is paying attention and the system works. The problem is what happens when the system gives you every reason to trust it, and then suddenly doesn’t work. The driver has to recognize the failure, assess the situation, decide on a correction, and physically execute it, all in less time than the system needs to create the danger. Musk and Tesla’s propagandists can point to the logs all they want. The video shows what actually matters: FSD approaching a standard highway curve at full speed with zero indication it was going to navigate it. That’s the failure. Everything that happened after, including the panicked disengagement, is a consequence of that failure. The framing that this was “manual driving, not FSD” is technically true for the final 4 seconds and deeply dishonest about the full sequence of events. It’s exactly the kind of liability shell game that courts are increasingly rejecting, as that $243 million verdict makes clear. Tesla created the system, sold it as “Full Self-Driving,” and profits from the ambiguity. At some point, it has to own the consequences.

@ElroyWintogreen @smalls2672 "I'd rather fuck up the global economy because I can't handle an old man who is awkward"

@smalls2672 Here he is in action. Sure, completely normal.

Joe Biden even though he only had 2 years of a slim majority in congress, gave us American rescue plan Ended America's longest war in history Pact act IRA infrastructure Chips act Effectively ended for profit prisons Nearly 140 billion is student debt relief for more than 3.6 million ppl Expunged the records of low Marijuana offenses. Best economy out of the G7 Record low unemployment Record stock market Made it easier to unionize and cracked down on union busting Most energy independent we've ever been new anti-redlining framework, which would have gone into effect starting in January 2026. Preventing discriminatory mortgage lending. crackdown on “junk fees” and overdraft charges. forced Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges to open their books. penalties for college programs that trap students in debt Made medication more accessible through telemedicine. Trump has given us tax cut for billionaires. has his own secret private army 1/3 of the white house demolished trade wars tariffs higher costs war weakened alliances isolation weaker dollar no job creation put his name on buildings enriching himself protected pedophiles energy crisis Gulf of America

@mopaksus @southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 California is an energy cluster. The last load related blackouts were in 2020, and they happened between 6pm and 9pm. EVs don't need to (and generally often aren't) charged during this time. Daytime electrical rates in CA often go negative. EVs can "soak up" that excess power.

@gregm12 @southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 California already has regular brown outs and blackouts. We simply don’t

A law written for energy independence is now the mechanism for food dependence. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol be blended into American transportation fuel annually. That volume consumes approximately 43 percent of the US corn crop. The mandate was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. It was designed for a world where corn was abundant and America wanted to reduce reliance on foreign oil. That world no longer exists. Corn acres are falling to 94 million from 98.8 million because urea at $610 makes the nitrogen economics impossible. The RFS takes its 15 billion gallons from a shrinking harvest. The percentage of remaining corn available for feed, food, and export compresses with every acre that switches to soybeans. The mandate does not flex. The biology does. Waiving the RFS requires the EPA Administrator to make a formal determination that implementation would cause severe economic or environmental harm. The process involves a public comment period, regulatory review, and potential legal challenges from the ethanol industry. The EPA proposed 2026 and 2027 RFS volume requirements in June 2025 and has been targeting Q1 2026 for the final rule. The rulemaking machinery was designed for normal agricultural cycles. It was not designed for a war that closed the world’s most important fertiliser transit route during planting season. Even if the EPA Administrator initiated a waiver today, the timeline from announcement to implementation stretches weeks to months. The corn planting window closes in three to four weeks. The legal process cannot outrun the biological calendar. By the time a waiver could take effect, the acreage decisions it was meant to influence would already be irreversible. The RFS is the transmission belt that converts a fertiliser crisis into a food crisis. Without the mandate, a shrinking corn crop would still produce less total output, but the available supply could be allocated flexibly between feed, food, and fuel based on market signals. With the mandate, 43 percent of whatever corn exists is legally spoken for before a single hen eats a kernel or a single tortilla is pressed. The flexibility that markets provide is overridden by the rigidity that law imposes. The cattle herd is at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry operations rebuilt from the 2025 avian flu but face rising feed costs. Dairy herds are contracting. Every animal that eats corn competes with a fuel pump that has legal priority. The protein cascade, from corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the grocery shelf, begins at the point where the RFS takes its cut. Corn Belt legislators who championed the RFS to support their farming constituents now face a perverse outcome: the law they wrote to help farmers is the law that prevents the market from adjusting to a crisis their farmers are living through. The ethanol industry will resist any waiver. The livestock industry will demand one. The consumer will pay the difference. And the EPA rulemaking process was designed for annual adjustments, not emergency response during a 21-day-old war. Fifteen billion gallons. Written into statute. Consuming 43 percent of a crop that just lost 4.8 million acres to a fertiliser price that originates in a strait the law never contemplated. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@Noahpinion @cremieuxrecueil You might want to laugh at this

Humanity was hitting a wall before AI came

@Nedsir1 @ChadMoran Try again, but this time, try using the slightest bit of critical thinking.

@ChadMoran It was not FSD. It was Autopilot, get the basics right please.

Here's the original video, which looks like it's actual speed. I used two markers and consistently measured it. It took 75 frames in a 30 FPS video to travel 212.63 ft equating to 57.9 MPH (probably 60). The incident occurred in August of 2025. These are just facts. Yes the driver should have intervened sooner. Yes, FSD was approaching way too fast.

@SdxTeslaNYC @Nedsir1 @FredLambert Except that CT doesn't have autosteer and never has.

@Nedsir1 @FredLambert So true

@HunsakerMiles @Nedsir1 @FredLambert Autosteer doesn't exist on CT and never has. It was therefore in FSD.

@Nedsir1 @FredLambert How is he supposed to smear elon if he gives you the facts?

@niccruzpatane And how profitable is the Robotaxi platform for Tesla?

Tesla Robotaxi vs Uber on a short 1.4-mile route in Austin, TX: Robotaxi: $6.88 Uber: $16.97 R.I.P Uber.

@Hilbe Those are some ugly cars that were never earnestly considered

Rivian has a patent application made public today for estimating the coefficient of drag. It's not very interesting...until you look at the vehicles shown. 1 is clearly an R1S, the other 2 though? Remember, there's still 1 vehicle on the Gen 2 platform that has not been announced yet. See below pictures and slide from Investors Day 2024. 🤔

@JCChristopher @congressdj You were going ~15mph slower and you disengaged slightly earlier than what we likely see in the video.

While taking @congressdj to his hotel in Houston this afternoon, we discussed one of things we keep hearing over and over again in the comments to my video post from yesterday, that the Cybertruck had FSD disengaged for four seconds prior to impact. So after leaving DJ's hotel and heading back home, I went back to the Eastex Park & Ride exit ramp, and did the same thing as yesterday (let FSD take me up the ramp), but this time I disengaged FSD at the exact same location where the Fox News video starts, which was four seconds prior to the impact. I think the video speaks for itself.

@JoshKale Uber lost money on every ride for the better part of a decade.

@JoshKale You're also conflating company losses (investing in R&D of a new vehicle, autonomy platform, autonomy software, new factory) with per-vehicle losses. That's a very dishonest way to look at it. Using this metric, Amazon lost money on every sale they made for *very* long time.

Nobody understands how much of a disaster this Rivian <> Uber deal is Rivian lost $3.6 billion last year on 42k deliveries. That's $86,000 of value destruction PER VEHICLE that left their factory. Their solution? Partner with Uber to turn a $58K camping SUV into a robotaxi... to compete with Tesla's Cybercab... YIKES Every 12-18 months, this company finds a new partner to write a check: - Amazon: $1.3B equity + 100K van order - VW: $5.8B joint venture - US DOE: $6.6B loan - Uber: $1.25B robotaxi deal (today) The moment they announced the Uber deal, they admitted they're pushing back profitability AGAIN to fund an autonomy program that can't even handle stoplights. Tesla's Cybercab is purpose built at $25,000 with no steering wheel. The cost per mile math isn't even close. The Uber deal is to deploy 50,000 robotaxis by 2031. Slight problem: The car doesn't exist yet. The factory doesn't exist yet. The autonomy software doesn't exist. Manufacturing is HARD. good luck have fun

@Campbellgrain @robertreese_4 There's 30-33% less energy per gallon than gasoline. Some/many cars will see a lower impact, as they can use the larger volume to operate more efficiently at light loads.

@robertreese_4 How many less mpg does it get?

Impressive price! What is the actual cost to produce a gal of ethanol?

@southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 Combustion motors that EVs are ready to replace cost competitively: Lawn equipment Small and medium passenger cars & SUVs Motorcycles & scooters Light and medium duty construction equipment Delivery vehicles Busses Water taxis Garbage trucks Even some mining trucks

@gregm12 @twotthree64 @shanaka86 Great options. Not realistic to replace all motor fuels at this point though.

@southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 We have plenty of grid capacity for charging EVs - they're actually a perfect compliment to our existing infrastructure which has peaky demands, and EVs are relatively insensitive to when they charge. Datacenters need massive, constant, firm power, completely inflexible.

@gregm12 @twotthree64 @shanaka86 We don’t have the electrical generation or grid capacity online currently or being built to support both data centers for artificial intelligence and a transition to electric vehicles in the short term

@southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 @n0lwf To me this says we don't need an ethanol quota. It's worth noting that if you adjust for energy density, it's more like $2.20/gal (still a great savings).

@gregm12 @twotthree64 @shanaka86 Current prices for gas and ethanol blends in nearby Adams, NE. When you don’t have oil companies controlling the margins, ethanol is more than competitive. Local ethanol plant and co-op keep prices real. Credit for picture to @n0lwf