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THINK.

THINK.

@hardpath2

just getting some thoughts out there — nothing I say is financial advice — love you all

The world Katılım Eylül 2024
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
We’re richer than what we got in the bank…
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Tom Wan
Tom Wan@tomwanhh·
Some early signs Circle <> Coinbase relationship is quietly shifting: • Circle's ARC token raise did not include CB Ventures • USYC, Circle's largest tokenized treasury product, is primarily held on Binance and BNB Chain, not Coinbase or Base • Circle Payment Network does not include Coinbase Their business lines are converging across blockchain, tokenization, payments and stablecoins. A formal split is unlikely given the mutual benefits still on the table, but the trajectory is clear. Both sides are building toward a less dependent relationship, and the overlap will only create more friction over time.
Omar@TheOneandOmsy

How long until the Circle / Coinbase marriage gets messy? > historically $CRCL = issuer of USDC and $COIN = distributor. Coin pushes USDC, and in exchange gets half the economics w/ some adjustments > but w/ Circle now a pubco, it’s been forced into pitching a much broader growth story to investors -> today that’s become: be the infrastructure layer for global payments + real-world finance onchain > to make that a reality, Circle needs to supercharge itself by owning customers and having their flows live on their new venue, Arc > and the problem is that directly conflicts w/ Coinbase’s own ambition w/ Base to be the exchange + rails for everything, especially payments, settlement & FX > and if you look closely, things have started getting messy: cbBTC vs cirBTC = Circle stepping on Coin’s toes w/ the same product > but Circle / Arc post token raise is a much worse deal. With outside investors underwriting the chain, the incentive becomes drive all your assets + activity from everywhere else (including Base / Coinbase) to Arc: USDC balances, tokenized assets, payments, settlement & eventually FX > the two businesses, which were once symbiotic, are now competing H2H and have public shareholders / token holders to keep track of the scoreboard > inevitable that the relationship ultimately ends in divorce. Circle clearly growing up and planning on moving out of its childhood home

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Palmer Luckey
Palmer Luckey@PalmerLuckey·
It is time for the United States Postal Service to ban junk mail. Unsolicited spam calls are already prohibited by the FCC. Emails are heavily regulated by the CAN-SPAM Act of 2003. Junk mail is the majority of mail, 100 million trees per year. Enough!
Palmer Luckey tweet media
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@brian_armstrong Why didn’t you have redundancy or capacity to roll over in an entirely different zone?
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Brian Armstrong
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong·
We experienced an outage at Coinbase last night, which is never acceptable. The root cause was a room overheating in an AWS datacenter when multiple chillers failed. We design our services to be redundant to downtime in any one AWS Availability Zone (AZ), and most of our systems worked this way last night, but not all. Our centralized exchange did not. Exchanges have unique architectures that optimize for latency and co-location of clients. It is possible to make exchanges resistant to AZ failures, but this can introduce latency delays that are not desirable along with breaking customer co-location. Given this incident, we'll revisit these tradeoffs to ensure we're giving you the best possible venue to trade. At a minimum, the duration of an outage should be able to be reduced considerably when an AZ move is needed. Thank you to the AWS and Coinbase teams for working through the night to mitigate the issue. We’ll share the detailed technical summary once it's ready.
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blue
blue@bluewmist·
People who grew up really poor: what's something middle-class people say that instantly reveals they've never struggled?
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Stats
Stats@punk9059·
Coinbase is falling apart. ETFs and Robinhood eating their lunch and it’s showing up in all sorts of ways.
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rob
rob@rwitoff·
Yesterday @coinbase experienced a multi-hour service disruption affecting trading, exchange access, and balance updates. Here's our initial read from Coinbase engineering on what happened, how we recovered, and what we're addressing. At approximately 23:50 UTC on 2026-05-07, our monitoring detected cascading quote failures from internal services that triggered multiple Sev1 incidents that engineering immediately began investigating. Customer-facing impacts included spot trading, Prime, International and derivative exchanges. Root cause: a thermal event (cooling system failure) inside a subset of racks within a single building in AWS us-east-1. We run a primary replica of our exchange infrastructure in a single zone, consistent with industry standards to reduce latency. To prepare for failures like this, we maintain a distributed standby, but during this incident, failures in the primary zone that were designed to be isolated were not, extending the duration of our outage. The failure cascaded down two paths: 1. Multiple hardware components beneath our exchange’s matching engine failed, requiring recovery and failover 2. Distributed Kafka clusters that manage messaging across Coinbase systems failed to remain available, also requiring partition failovers to new hardware brokers with many TiBs of data After isolating the incident: automated tooling drained ~10 Kubernetes clusters worth of related workloads out of the affected zone to stabilize internal services. Most services were back to normal within ~30 minutes of diagnosis. The two things we couldn't automatically drain: the exchange (dedicated hardware and storage) and Kafka (managed service that was designed to be resilient to this, with unique problems). The exchange matching engine is the core system responsible for processing orders and maintaining order books. It is a distributed cluster and requires quorum to safely elect a leader and continue processing trading activity. During the incident, infrastructure-level constraints in the affected datacenter left only a subset of nodes healthy, preventing the cluster from reaching quorum. As a result, trading across Retail, Advanced, and Institutional exchanges were blocked. Recovery required our oncall and engineering teams to execute our disaster recovery plan, restore quorum safely, and validate system health under constrained infrastructure conditions. The team built, tested, deployed, and validated the fix while continuing to manage the broader incident. Kafka recovery was a much larger scale operation. Our primary managed Kafka partitions process many terabytes of data daily and are designed with resiliency guarantees for uninterrupted operation during a datacenter failure just like this. In this case, those guarantees failed and required manual recovery. We again relied on disaster recovery procedures to recover stuck partitions onto new hardware (brokers) that enabled us to safely bring x-service messaging back online across Coinbase. During the lag, customers saw delayed balance streams which resolved automatically once replication caught up. No data lost. Once the engine came back up as part of our standard runbooks, we re-opened markets carefully: all products to cancel-only mode first, audited product states, then moved all markets to auction mode, before restoring trading on Coinbase Exchange. What went right: the team. Incident response across the company came together within minutes, followed well-rehearsed playbooks and used secure automation tooling to recover all services. We have a strong, senior team at Coinbase that worked through rare failure modes to recover all services. To our customers: losing access to your account, even temporarily, is unacceptable. We know that. We're sorry, and we’ll publish a full root cause analysis in the coming weeks 🙏
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Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom@SahilBloom·
What's one thing you find exciting that most people find boring?
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0xDmitry
0xDmitry@0xDmitry·
@thenarrator true, but what are you supposed to do with that information? it’s like having a killer hand in poker and watching everyone at the table fold
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good
good@thenarrator·
sometimes the most interesting prediction market signal is the one nobody placed a trade on. an empty market on an important question tells you the crowd has no idea. absence of liquidity is also information
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Con
Con@__Con_·
$COIN It just had some of the "weakest" earnings, yet it's green today. And the reason why is because it's transitioning its business model. They are also starting to lock in now by cutting a major part of their workforce that they don't need. I'm honestly more bullish than ever for this stock. Exactly when most are bearish. Higher...
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moon shiesty
moon shiesty@moonshiesty·
coinbase lost $394m Q1 on $1.43b revenue the opportunity is wide open for an exchange to compete with coinbase on-shore while leveraging crypto infrastructure to lower costs and ship a better product coinbase is a mid product. coinbase has the highest fees in the industry and still loses money coinbase spends 5b annual operating expenses, 82% higher than NASDAQ, 117% higher than CME, comparable to ICE, but with much worse technology compare this to crypto native teams like hyperliquid with a better product, lower fees, negligible expenses and <0.5% headcount to be fair hyperliquid and coinbase aren't direct comps: coinbase has compliance costs but compliance costs cannot account for 5b spend when crypto should allow team to cut spend compared relative to traditional exchanges coinbase has become complacent and ripe for disruption
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@patrick_oshag @sama Whatever is a “recruiter”? A superstar human, whatever their profession is, should be a good “recruiter”
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Why Brian still obsesses over recruiting: "Sam Altman (@sama) told me you're going to spend 50% of your time on hiring. I never did. It was my death blow. As a leader, you can choose if you want to spend time hiring or managing. The more time you spend on recruiting, the less time you get to spend on management. The first and last call I make every day is the recruiting team, still. I probably spend two, three hours on it every day. The 2000s, I didn't. I thought it was all about having a recruiting machine, managing people. The great thing is I don't manage as much anymore because the really good people are self managing. People should think about their first employee being a recruiter, not an engineer. Because they are the ones that get you every other person. A company is as good as its people. The difference between the good companies and the great companies are the people."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Brian Chesky (@bchesky), founder and CEO of Airbnb and one of the great consumer founders of the last 20 years. Paul Graham coined "founder mode" based on Brian's experience running Airbnb. This conversation is about what comes after it, what he calls AI founder mode, and how it will force founders to focus even more on the details. We talk about his eleven-star exercise for finding product market fit, why your first hire should be a recruiter, and why Airbnb's $100B IPO became one of the saddest days of his life. Brian still comes across like the 17 year-old at the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD) who picked to study industrial design. His heroes are all artists. Da Vinci, Van Gogh, Walt Disney, and Steve Jobs, all of whom were working the week they died because they loved what they did. Rick Rubin taught him that an artist is only an artist when they make things for themselves. Now Brian believes AI is the opportunity for all of us to do the same. Enjoy! Timestamps: 1:00 Studying Industrial Design 11:33 AI Founder Mode 17:02 Lack of Consumer AI Companies 22:10 Small Teams and Focused Problems 30:52 The Evolution from Founder to CEO 38:13 The 11-Star Experience 41:07 AI as a Canvas for Creativity 48:17 Detaching from Success 53:12 Founder-Led Moats 58:34 The Next Chapter of Airbnb 1:03:08 What Endures in the Age of AI 1:06:43 Lessons from Bodybuilding 1:10:20 The CEO's No. 1 Job 1:17:01 Activating Talent 1:20:39 The Kindest Thing

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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@patrick_oshag This was such a good episode. Brian has such an incriedble mindset. He seems like an incredible human in general. AIRBNB might get some of my money.
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Brian still spends over two hours a day on recruiting and personally hires the top 200 people at Airbnb. I loved this idea of being in the flow of talent to find the best people: "Don't do searches. Build pipelines. I try to map out all the best people in the Valley. So let's say I need to hire really good engineers. I don't do searches. I just informationally meet the best engineers in the world. Every meeting, the job is to get the next meeting, meet someone else. The mistake people make when they hire. They go, "I need to hire a blank." So they hire a search firm. They give you 50 profiles, and you pick the best one. That is the wrong way to do it. The best way to do it is pipeline recruiting. You're constantly recruiting, you're constantly meeting people. in advance of searches. And all of it is referral based. The two ways to find out if people are good – is to start with the results and work backwards to the people. Find an ad you like and figure out who made that ad. Start with the results. Work backwards to people. Don't start with the resume. The other thing to do is just keep asking people to build your Rolodex. The moment I find somebody that's really good, I ask them who all the best people they know are. And I build these little mafias and they tell you who the other good people are. I am the co-hiring manager for the top 200 people in the company. This is very radical. A lot of CEOs think it's their job to hire their executive team, and their executive team hires their team. I think that is fatal. You always want to be marrying up, hiring people of the future. It should be like we're reaching. If you can hire them without my help, we're not reaching far enough. You want to hire the very best person you can."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Brian Chesky (@bchesky), founder and CEO of Airbnb and one of the great consumer founders of the last 20 years. Paul Graham coined "founder mode" based on Brian's experience running Airbnb. This conversation is about what comes after it, what he calls AI founder mode, and how it will force founders to focus even more on the details. We talk about his eleven-star exercise for finding product market fit, why your first hire should be a recruiter, and why Airbnb's $100B IPO became one of the saddest days of his life. Brian still comes across like the 17 year-old at the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD) who picked to study industrial design. His heroes are all artists. Da Vinci, Van Gogh, Walt Disney, and Steve Jobs, all of whom were working the week they died because they loved what they did. Rick Rubin taught him that an artist is only an artist when they make things for themselves. Now Brian believes AI is the opportunity for all of us to do the same. Enjoy! Timestamps: 1:00 Studying Industrial Design 11:33 AI Founder Mode 17:02 Lack of Consumer AI Companies 22:10 Small Teams and Focused Problems 30:52 The Evolution from Founder to CEO 38:13 The 11-Star Experience 41:07 AI as a Canvas for Creativity 48:17 Detaching from Success 53:12 Founder-Led Moats 58:34 The Next Chapter of Airbnb 1:03:08 What Endures in the Age of AI 1:06:43 Lessons from Bodybuilding 1:10:20 The CEO's No. 1 Job 1:17:01 Activating Talent 1:20:39 The Kindest Thing

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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
Hot take? USDC will depeg soon.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: a16z raises $2.2 billion crypto fund to invest in projects linking crypto with AI & traditional finance.
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Rushi
Rushi@rushicrypto·
If capitalism truly rewarded skill or intelligence, the richest people would be neurosurgeons, engineers, and scientists. If it rewarded talent, it would be artists, writers, and creators. If it rewarded hard work, it would be cleaners, laborers, and service workers. But it’s none of them.
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@mcuban Why would the same answers to the same questions be necessary?
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Mark Cuban
Mark Cuban@mcuban·
I’m coming to the conclusion that the biggest challenge for Enterprise AI, and AI in general , as of now, is that it’s still impossible to make sure that everyone gets the same answer to the same question, every time. Which is a great response to the doomers. AI doesn’t know the consequences of its output. Judgement and the ability to challenge AI output is becoming increasingly necessary, and valuable. Which makes domain knowledge more valuable by the second. Am I wrong ?
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
Anyone who thinks massive capex in AI/data center must also think it’s a technology not world changing. The technology is world changing. A lot of it for the much much much better. Some of it will be negative, like anything. But, the much much much better means capex is low.
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@nikitabier Ironically, this is also the ranked order (probably) for most talked about topics too
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
The most snoozed (i.e., muted) topics since launching the snooze feature: 1. Crypto 2. Politics 3. Iran Conflict 4. Sports 5. Business & Finance 6. Gaming 7. Artificial Intelligence 8. Videos 9. Science & Technology 10. Entertainment & Arts
Nikita Bier@nikitabier

Today we're also rolling out a tool to snooze topics on your For You tab—if you ever want to crank up or turn down the slop. Rolling out now on iOS and Web for Premium subscribers.

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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
@HawaiianAir $4K to fly to Hawaii. lol. What a joke!
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THINK.
THINK.@hardpath2·
Wait times at @Starbucks are god awful. And after all that, they fuck up order. Will never go back.
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