Viower

@rudekyoni999 @jejejejejelol So who’s right @grok

@jejejejejelol You’re mistaken friend

Today’s Odd Lots: The “Orange Wave” Realigning Latin America [left] and part of my outlook from Jan [right]. I continue to believe that the $INTC ($AMKR) seeking to displace $TSMC and the US promoting political alignment (“Donroe”) in LatAm are part of the same geopolitical trade. “Trade” in multiple senses of the word: a financial trade and a realpolitik swap of interests.

I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working. I've highlighted these people in red in this chart:

Feynman: "We know a lot more than we can prove" 🤔 Deng: "For me personally, an important reason is that I don't particularly like pure theory. I feel that in this world, the truths that can be rigorously proven are actually very limited, but the truths you can feel are very numerous. Many principles are more like a feeling or an energy, and it's hard to express them completely in mathematical form. But in mathematics and theoretical computer science, your conclusion must be rigorously provable, written on paper, before people will accept it. In AI, as long as you observe certain phenomena through experiments and intuitively feel they are correct, even if you can't fully convince everyone, you can gradually build your own system of understanding. This approach to understanding the world through intuition and experimentation appeals to me greatly. And this approach lets you discover patterns much faster than disciplines that rely on rigorous proofs."

RT @LucyBuilding: 如果你也想在 X 上补一些「英推投资信息源」，下面这些账号值得长期跟踪。 一、看宏观和市场大局的 @morganhousel 更偏投资心理学和长期思维。 他不太讲具体个股，也不太追热点，但很适合在市场情绪很满的时候，帮你把视角拉回长…

Talks between the U.S. and Iran are now beginning in Pakistan. This is not routine diplomacy. This is a live test of whether this war escalates—or locks in a new global power structure.

You are one walk away from a better day.

I own $296,000 worth of anti-aging technology as part of my plan to reach 120. Here’s everything I use, what it does, and the free alternative for each one (THREAD): 1. Sauna > Anything else on this list

It still seems to be the consensus that a resolution of the war and an opening of the strait is going to send markets back to all time highs, I don't think that will be the case. The infrastructure phase of AI, the physical buildout, the data centers, the materials, the labor, has arguably generated more economic value than the AI models themselves at this stage. $CAT has vastly outperformed $QQQ telling us the investment phase is what's been net stimulative. The capex wave created a blue collar stimulus that padded the labor market while it was quietly fracturing underneath. The problem is that cycle is expected to peak and start decelerating over the next two to three years, and LLMs are not providing the same economic benefit as billions of dollar in capex spend. If the market keeps bleeding and those buildout plans start getting questioned or paused, the entire daisy chain that wound up on the way up starts unwinding on the way down. And the models themselves probably can't pick up the slack fast enough to replace what was lost.

An insightful podcast with viewpoints I largely agree with; featuring Jeff Currie, a Wall Street legend in commodities with one of the strongest track records in the business — the same expert who correctly forecasted the late-2000s commodities supercycle. youtu.be/q4kWgtIplmA?si…

Markets Pricing No Hit to US Growth Since the start of the Iran War US markets have priced in peculiar expectations of no growth drag from the sharp rise in oil prices. If anything, the pricing suggests marginally stronger growth ahead. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/markets-pric…

My conversation with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), co-founder of @a16z and Netscape. 0:00 Caffeine Heart Scare 0:56 Zero Introspection Mindset 3:24 Psychedelics and Founders 4:54 Motivation Beyond Happiness 7:18 Tech as Progress Engine 10:27 Founders Versus Managers 20:01 HP Intel Founder Legacy 21:32 Why Start the Firm 24:14 Venture Barbell Theory 28:57 JP Morgan Boutique Banking 30:02 Religion Split Wall Street 30:41 Barbell of Banking 31:42 Allen & Company Model 33:16 Planning the VC Firm 33:45 CAA Playbook Lessons 36:49 First Principles vs. Status Quo 39:03 Scaling Venture Capital 40:37 Private Equity and Mad Men 42:52 Valley Shifts to Full Stack 45:59 Meeting Jim Clark 48:53 Founder vs. Manager at SGI 54:20 Recruiting Dinner Story 56:58 Starting the Next Company 57:57 Nintendo Online Gamble 58:33 Building Mosaic Browser 59:45 NSFnet Commercial Ban 1:01:28 Eternal September Shift 1:03:11 Spam and Web Controversy 1:04:49 Mosaic Tech Support Flood 1:07:49 Netscape Business Model 1:09:05 Early Internet Skepticism 1:11:15 Moral Panic Pattern 1:13:08 Bicycle Face Story 1:14:48 Music Panic Examples 1:18:12 Lessons from Jim Clark 1:19:36 Clark Versus Barksdale 1:21:22 Tesla Versus Edison 1:23:00 Edison Digression Setup 1:23:13 AI Forecasting Myths 1:23:43 Edison Phonograph Lesson 1:25:11 Netscape Two Jims 1:29:11 Bottling Innovation 1:31:44 Elon Management Code 1:32:24 IBM Big Gray Cloud 1:37:12 Engineer First Truth 1:38:28 Bottlenecks and Speed 1:42:46 Milli Elon Metric 1:47:20 Starlink Side Project 1:49:10 Closing Includes paid partnerships.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

cancel your chatgpt subscription and delete your openclaw slop. i'm serious. go on ebay and buy a used RTX 3060 for the price of two months of pro. or check your drawer because half of you already own one and forgot about it. install hermes agent from @NousResearch. one framework, 31 tools, file operations, terminal, browser, code execution. connect it to your local llama.cpp server running qwen 3.5 9B Q4. total download is 5.3 gigs. that's it. that's the whole setup. every experiment you hesitated to run on API. every project you shelved because you didn't want your data on someone else's server. every late night idea you didn't test because you hit your rate limit. all of that is gone. runs 24/7 on your electricity. your machine. your data never leaves your house. connect it to telegram if you want it on your phone. hook up whatever tools you need. the model thinks at 29 tok/s with 128K context and it never bills you. qwen 3.5 9B and one RTX 3060 is the setup most people will never try because they've been trained to believe intelligence has to come from a datacenter. it doesn't. it runs on 12 gigs of VRAM under your desk right now. stop giving your thinking away for free.

Researchers trained a humanoid robot to play tennis using only 5 hours of motion capture data The robot can now sustain multi-shot rallies with human players, hitting balls traveling >15 m/s with a ~90% success rate AlphaGo for every sport is coming

this is actually insane > be tech guy in australia > adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live > not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4 > pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA > feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold > zero background in biology > identify mutated proteins, match them to drug targets > design a custom mRNA cancer vaccine from scratch > genomics professor is “gobsmacked” that some puppy lover did this on his own > need ethics approval to administer it > red tape takes longer than designing the vaccine > 3 months, finally approved > drive 10 hours to get rosie her first injection > tumor halves > coat gets glossy again > dog is alive and happy > professor: “if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to humans?” one man with a chatbot, and $3,000 just outperformed the entire pharmaceutical discovery pipeline. we are going to cure so many diseases. I dont think people realize how good things are going to get

My information consumption is now 1/4 X, 1/4 podcast interviews of the smartest practitioners, 1/4 talking to the leading AI models, and 1/4 reading old books. The opportunity cost of anything else is far too high, and rising daily.

There's a fruit fly walking around right now that was never born. @eonsys just released a video where they took a real fly's connectome — the wiring diagram of its brain — and simulated it. Dropped it into a virtual body. It started walking. Grooming. Feeding. Doing what flies do. Nobody taught it to walk. No training data, no gradient descent toward fly-like behavior. This is the opposite of how AI works. They rebuilt the mind from the inside, neuron by neuron, and behavior just... emerged. It's the first time a biological organism has been recreated not by modeling what it does, but by modeling what it is. A human brain is 6 OOM more neurons. That's a scaling problem, something we've gotten very good at solving. So what happens when we have a working copy of the human mind?

3 years of AI progress

@nyk_builderz i actually had claude create me a dashboard to click through his whole portfolio, you can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artifac…