Ian David Moss

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Ian David Moss

Ian David Moss

@iandavidmoss

Smarter decisions for a better world. I founded and lead @EffectiveInst. Read The Observatory here: https://t.co/rIKivVeSK3

New York, NY Katılım Şubat 2016
436 Takip Edilen724 Takipçiler
Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@S_OhEigeartaigh Interesting, I have the opposite emotional experience with LLMs. I find them deeply disturbing to my felt sense of epistemic security in ways that are hard to explain with precision. But the rest of your story definitely resonated with me!
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Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh@S_OhEigeartaigh·
I don't know who might find this helpful to hear, but it's taken until about now (almost 15 years since the start of my first postdoc) for me to start feeling like I *really* know what I'm doing professionally. Though my professional adolescence may have been lengthened by (a) moving through several academic fields (b) the most recent of these more-or-less emerging around me. Of late I do think LLMs have played a small but significant part in that. They allow me to familiarise myself with concepts and literatures more quickly, get a sense of the strength of evidence/support for various claims and positions, and red team my own ideas, all at a pace more compatible with the fast pace of my work and developments around me. This allows me to feel more prepared/intellectually secure, and less like I'm winging it.
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Tyler John
Tyler John@tyler_m_john·
Over 5 years I've advised dozens of philanthropists on AI. I compiled the answers to all of the questions I've been asked in one report. 2024 Nobel Prize Geoffrey Hinton calls it “an extremely useful resource for philanthropists interested in funding AI safety and preparedness."
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
Prof. Steve Vladeck's newsletter this morning incidentally reminds me that the TikTok ban is now almost a year old-- and has not taken effect, despite being upheld by SCOTUS and enacted by Congress.
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Andrew Curran
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_·
Wegmans has to post this sign because New York City passed a law requiring notification in 2021. They are collecting facial recognition, eye scans and voiceprints. Most places have no such laws, if you are shopping in a major city you should assume your essence is being captured.
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Daniel Paleka
Daniel Paleka@dpaleka·
3.7 sonnet: *hands behind back* yes the tests do pass. why do you ask. what did you hear 4o: yes you are Jesus Christ's brother. now go. Nanjing awaits o3: Listen, sorry, I owe you a straight explanation. This was once revealed to me in a dream
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Tyler John
Tyler John@tyler_m_john·
@GaryMarcus Every decision or speech act bakes in a billion complex, subtle values, about efficiency, honesty, empathy, respect, social norms, empiricism, aesthetics, deference, humility, and on and on. How would you write a set of goals that leads to good norms across a trillion actions?
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Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@tyler_m_john At a minimum it seems like a serious conflict of interest if they're going to continue to be involved with Epoch?
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Tyler John
Tyler John@tyler_m_john·
I argued a bit with Seán about this, I don't have a strong take and don't feel a lot of need to because my takes won't affect their work. But the memes will be insane if my gut reaction was right. x.com/S_OhEigeartaig…
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh@S_OhEigeartaigh

I'm seeing criticism of this from 'more people doing capabilities' perspective. But I disagree. I really want to see stronger pushes towards more specialised AI rather than general superintelligence, b/c I think latter likely to be v dangerous. seems like step in right direction.

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Tyler John
Tyler John@tyler_m_john·
Epoch researchers were like "nooooo superintelligence isn't going to come for like 10 more years, there's all this logistics stuff they can't solve" and then went to solve the logistics stuff so they could immanentize the eschaton
Mechanize@MechanizeWork

Today we’re announcing Mechanize, a startup focused on developing virtual work environments, benchmarks, and training data that will enable the full automation of the economy. We will achieve this by creating simulated environments and evaluations that capture the full scope of what people do at their jobs. This includes using a computer, completing long-horizon tasks that lack clear criteria for success, coordinating with others, and reprioritizing in the face of obstacles and interruptions. We’re betting that the lion’s share of value from AI will come from automating ordinary labor tasks rather than from “geniuses in a data center”. Currently, AI models have serious shortcomings that render most of this enormous value out of reach. They are unreliable, lack robust long-context capabilities, struggle with agency and multimodality, and can’t execute long-term plans without going off the rails. To overcome these limitations, Mechanize will produce the data and evals necessary for comprehensively automating work. Our digital environments will act as practical simulations of real-world work scenarios, enabling agents to learn useful abilities through RL. The market potential here is absurdly large: workers in the US are paid around $18 trillion per year in aggregate. For the entire world, the number is over three times greater, around $60 trillion per year. The explosive economic growth likely to result from completely automating labor could generate vast abundance, much higher standards of living, and new goods and services that we can’t even imagine today. Our vision is to realize this potential as soon as possible. Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil Mechanize is backed by investments from Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross, Patrick Collison, Dwarkesh Patel, Jeff Dean, Sholto Douglas, and Marcus Abramovitch.

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Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀@peterwildeford·
How to improve your writing in two easy steps: Step 1: Move a lot of the detail into an appendix Step 2: Delete the appendix
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Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@NunoSempere Agree with b). But regarding a) and c), our sense from following the developments closely is that there's a whole lot of baby that will end up being thrown out with the (admittedly considerable) bathwater.
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Nuño Sempere (Asunción)
Nuño Sempere (Asunción)@NunoSempere·
If the administration cuts everything and then restores what people complain most about then: a) initial alarmism is exaggerated, b) it's useful as a signal, c) I'm not seeing congratulatory notes of relief (carrot) anywhere close to the initial signs of condemnation (stick)
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Nuño Sempere (Asunción)
Nuño Sempere (Asunción)@NunoSempere·
Buried in an article about continuing Gavi, the admin might be restarting HIV aid in the end?
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Chana
Chana@ChanaMessinger·
This might be extremely well-trodden, but it seems like AI really has the potential to ramp up a trend of talking to humans less and less (self-service checkouts, AI assistants, etc) Where's the AI ∩ Loneliness crisis conversation at?
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Arnab Datta
Arnab Datta@ArnabDatta321·
Nice piece from @calebwatney in the NYT today. There are lessons here that go beyond science policy.
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Teddy Schleifer
Teddy Schleifer@teddyschleifer·
am sure my tweets will accomplish a lot here
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Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
the evacuation of all USAID employees from overseas is incompatible with the waivers to keep lifesaving programs going, if anyone was wondering. cbsnews.com/news/usaid-mis…
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Miles Brundage
Miles Brundage@Miles_Brundage·
Stargate + related efforts could help the US stay ahead of China, but China will still have their own superintelligence(s) no more than a year later than the US, absent e.g. a war. So unless you want (literal) war, you need to have a vision for navigating multipolar AI outcomes.
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Kevin Roose
Kevin Roose@kevinroose·
It must be comforting, on some level, to believe that AI progress is hitting a wall. But the reality is that the industry is scrambling to design new tests hard enough to stump AI models, because most of the existing tests are getting beaten. Full column (free link): nytimes.com/2025/01/23/tec…
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Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@hamandcheese I'm mainly kind of shocked that the leader of a major AI research lab wouldn't have better talking points ready to go on the value of AI for medical research. Tell me again what we're building all this for?
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Samuel Hammond 🦉
Samuel Hammond 🦉@hamandcheese·
Trump seems under the impression that ASI is just a way to cure diseases and not an ultraintelligent digital lifeform with autonomy and self-awareness. Sam's hesitation before answering speaks volumes.
Tsarathustra@tsarnick

Announcing the Stargate Project, a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in the US, Sam Altman and President Trump say this is about building AGI, with one of the most important applications being the cure of diseases at an unprecedented rate

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Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@davidmanheim @tyler_m_john @pmarca Totally agree with this -- as I've gotten further into my career it's been very noticeable how even a short stint at a brand-name place can pay career dividends for decades, especially if you did something notable there.
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David Manheim
David Manheim@davidmanheim·
@tyler_m_john Yeah, mostly good, but @pmarca's claim that working at startups is a "permanent source of credibility," but working at a big firm isn't seems obviously wrong - working at Google or McKinsey or Goldman Sachs is a much strong signal later in your career.
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Ian David Moss
Ian David Moss@iandavidmoss·
@ben_j_todd In practice much parenting is already automated via tablets and TV, especially for low-income parents. It's possible that nanny-robots would find a market if the cost became cheap enough. Hard to see human nannies running out of customers as long as humans are around though.
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Benjamin Todd
Benjamin Todd@ben_j_todd·
Why are nannies always the last bastion of automation? Doesn't seem plausible. I think parents would leap at a nanny available 24/7, infinitely patient & attentive, customised to their parenting style, expert tutor in any subject etc...and eventually a fraction of the cost.
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