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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc)
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc)
@ihtsae
Your friendly neighborhood mad scientist and technology brother. 👨🏾🔬 💻 📱 ⚛️ 🧪 ⚗️ 🥼 ☕ 🚆 🛫 prev @stripe @cloudflare @galois
PDX Katılım Mayıs 2009
1.9K Takip Edilen668 Takipçiler
Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@jwt0625 Maybe a numerical arithmetic issue and/or Runge/Gibbs?
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
keep thinking about the Japanese PM saying a line to the effect of "Everything they say about the Americans is true, but they're the only Americans we've got."
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Not the OP and IANAL, but in re:
1. You generally want treaties and for that matter any contracts in general to actually lay out what constitutes breach, performance, etc as opposed to everyone playing Calvinball (bc why did you even contract then?)
2. We have controls on enriched materials, but the controls on generically radioactive things which have a million other uses are quite lax. In kind, okay, so you control TPUs - what about GPUs which have a million other uses? In what world is it reasonable and moral for you to have control over others ability to build out generic compute facilities?
3. This is unspeakably evil - to essentially imprison a person for what they could merely express (ideas). Plenty of US citizens holding L/Q (some with SCI endorsements) travel freely without a priori restrictions, because we screen and monitor prior to them acquiring such. However, if you never seek such clearances, you totally can decide to leave the country no matter what science you've thought up on your own time of your own accord.
4. NPT is effectively far less expansive than what's being proposed here. Even with that, as Dean mentions, portions of the nuclear controls regime within the US are likely unconstitutional.
5. Part of what backs NPT is that racing to a nuke actually ends with a physical WMD, as opposed to potentially working in the general direction of what could possibly turn out to be an allegedly dangerous hypothetic threat. Substantially harder to morally justify kinetic strikes and regimes changes for the latter than the former.
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personal views, answered in an order that I think helps explain my views:
5. yes, this should be a global treaty negotiated by the important nations of Earth with ideally as many nations becoming party to it as possible. whatever you think of the AI:nuclear analogy, my general view is that the NPT is a good model here.
1. not sure a metric needs to be specified in advance. the treaty nations will negotiate their way into the treaty, and they can negotiate their way out of it. if a key nation defects and the other nation(s) think it unwise, they can do all the things they might do if say a key nation were to defect from the NPT.
2. yes, I think capital and import/export controls and monitoring are the two key levers to restrict datacenter build out at ever larger scale. again this is similar to NPT. we have controls on the movement of fissile material. this isn't perfect, and so it's supplemented with things like inspection and satellite reconnaissance.
3. if the goal is to get most of the nations of Earth to sign the treaty, then probably yes. I'm not sure what happens if a US citizen scientist decides they want to go work for the DPRK's nuclear program, but I would expect similar treatment for the AI researcher analogy.
4. do you view our enforcement of the NPT as autocratic in nature?
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Here are some questions I wish "Pause" and "Stop" advocates would address:
1. Assuming we achieve the desired policy goal through a bilateral US/China agreement, what would be the specific metric or objective we would say needs to be satisfied in advance? Who decides whether we have satisfied them? What if one one party believes we have satisfied them but the other does not?
2. If the goal is achieved through a bilateral US/China agreement, would we need capital controls to ensure that U.S. investors cannot fund semiconductor fabs, data centers, or AI research labs in countries other than the U.S. and China?
3. Would we need to revoke the passports of U.S.-based AI researchers and semiconductor engineers to prevent them leaving America to join AI-related ventures elsewhere? How else would the U.S. and China keep researchers within their borders?
4. How should we grapple with the fact that (2) and (3) are common features of autocratic regimes?
5. Do the above questions mean that this really should be a global agreement, signed by all countries on Earth, or at least those with the theoretical ability to host large-scale data centers (probably Vanuatu doesn't need to be on board)?
Dean W. Ball@deanwball
Pause AI rhetoric is predicated on the notion that the AI companies are recklessly racing toward dangerous tech and that a government controlled pause button is therefore necessary, but this seems really hard to reconcile with the fact that government is attempting to destroy an AI company because *the government* is racing toward plausibly dangerous AI uses (Sec. Hegseth has stated in official directives that he wants to deploy AI into critical systems regardless of whether it is aligned, for example) and *the company* is pushing back. The roles are totally reversed from the logic that Pause AI and frankly other AI safety advocates confidently assumed for years. It is *industry* that is in favor of alignment and at least somewhat measured deployment risks, and government whose actions seem much closer to reckless. I predicted this for years. I said, in particular, that pauses and bans and licensing regimes gave government a dangerously high degree of control over AI, and that the incentives of government are much more dangerous than those of private industry with competitive market incentives. I believe the events of the last month are good evidence in favor of my view. At this point if you are an AI safety advocate whose policy proposals do not wrestle seriously with the brutal political economic reality of the state and AI, I don’t take you seriously. It gives me no pleasure to have been right about this, by the way. The state has an incredibly strong structural incentive to centralize power using AI, and we are, all of us, not so empowered to stop it. I am quite concerned about this.
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@tenobrus I think we have various moots (ig we're already friends of friends then tho huh... anyhow), overlap in interests, albeit that I'm sporadic
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alright i'm officially gonna try friends of friends only replies for at least 2 weeks and see how it affects my experience. will reconsider then.
but before the gates slam shut, it's Lowbie Appreciation Thursday! introduce urself in the replies and tell me why i should follow u!
Tenobrus@tenobrus
strongly considering making all my posts "friends of friends replies only" for a while. i follow 2.5k people and they collectively follow an assload more, so its really not too strong a filter, but it'd keep out bots and random groypers. downside is it blocks brand new lowbies...
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@mightbejell0 That is classified
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@senatorshoshana As best I can tell, assuming it's this place, it seems to be open to all?
parks.ca.gov/?page_id=627
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What's horrible is i can't even go to this location bc tourists were dicks so now they only allow locals. Gotta befriend a local and let me stay with them ig???
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Just commenting "is that this year????" On every superbloom picture in my Instagram feed just to be sure
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
BREAKING: The bipartisan Supersonic Aviation Modernization Act (SAMA) just passed the House UNANIMOUSLY and is headed to the Senate.
Supersonic flight isn't red or blue. It's Red, White, and Blue.
🇺🇸✈️💪
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@bryanrbeal Can't you as long as what they do is wholly unrelated to what you do? Surely they don't pay you a fee when they come over to your place for some eggs and toast?
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The internet runs on a coincidence of atomic physics. Erbium emits light at exactly 1,550 nanometers. Silica glass fiber loses the least signal at exactly 1,550 nanometers. One is a quantum property of a rare earth element, the other is an optical property of melted sand. They have nothing to do with each other. It is pure luck. Before erbium-doped fiber amplifiers, every undersea signal had to be converted from light to electricity and back every 50 kilometers. Each conversion degraded the signal and capped bandwidth. Erbium removed that cap. An erbium amplifier sitting on the floor of the ocean boosts signals 1,000 times and runs for decades without maintenance. 99% of intercontinental data moves through glass strands no thicker than a human hair, amplified by a rare earth element that just so happens to emit at the right wavelength. And erbium isn't even the strangest one.
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@hamandcheese Big area, heavily distributed small launchers, absurd volume of caves and tunnels. Sites hit post launch detection, but that just incentivizes fully using the capacity at a site when you use it.
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Very naive question, but where is Iran launching these missiles from, and why haven't they been taken out if the US supposedly has air superiority?
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
Thanks for highlighting this. I share your concern that all parts of our civic life are becoming dull and uninspired/uninspiring. This is the great danger of bureaucratization. There’s no reason passports shouldn’t have a little flair and it pains me when things get affirmatively uglier and more generic. I’ll look into this decision and see what I can do.
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@kellabyte For large-scale clusters (up to 65,000 nodes), GKE replaced etcd with Google Cloud Spanner as the backend state store, while still exposing the etcd API for compatibility.
Spanner gives horizontal scalability, global distribution, and low-latency consistency without etcd’s limits
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
The IRS has a new Tax Withholding Estimator!
Taxpayers enter in their income, expected deductions, and other relevant info to estimate what they’ll owe in taxes at the end of the year, and adjust the withholding on their paycheck.
And it’s open source: github.com/IRS-Public/tax…
IRSnews@IRSnews
The #IRS Tax Withholding Estimator now reflect changes to credits and deductions under the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and other tax benefits. Details: ow.ly/ek1550YsVg0
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@Zack31849967 @mattparlmer expand the second, vastly larger pool of potential capital. That policy will also likely make monetary creative debt (unlike private investor debt, which is substitutional) for things like equipment, facilities, land, cashflow, etc substantially more accessible to all.
10/10 EOF
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@Zack31849967 @mattparlmer horizon for both. Americans (and others globally, for that matter) are increasingly investing in American equities, which boosts the common base for both. Meanwhile, the fed is looking to improve risk controls in a way that expands diverse forms of lending, which will
9/n
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Haneef Mubarak (🇺🇸/acc) retweetledi
@Zack31849967 @mattparlmer consumption or alternative creation of productive capacity, by someone, somewhere) and the second relies more on good monetary policy essentially identifying surplus productive capacity that can be used to create more (growth creates growth).
There's good news on the
8/n
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