Jack Johnson
1.5K posts
Jack Johnson retweetledi
BREAKING: The Israeli army has informed the Palestinian Military Liaison that all entrances and exits to multiple cities and towns across the West Bank will be closed today due to calls by settlers to attack Palestinian villages.
Punishing Palestinians, who are the victims of settler terrorism, instead of those carrying out the attacks.
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@DarrigoMelanie He’s so desperate and f**king up everything…
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
Trump called Democrats “the greatest enemy America has”
His administration:
- changed the indicators of domestic terrorism to include anti-Trump, anti-capitalist, pro-immigrant, pro-LGBTQ speech
- tracking Americans using their cell phone location data, private financial, health and travel data, social media posts, political donations and more
- expanding ICE detention centers beyond what’s needed for deportations
- ICE agents have been denying due process, and financially incentivized to arrest and detain people, whether they ultimately get released or not
- refuse to charge anyone for the 44 deaths in ICE facilities or the 9 murders by ICE agents
- his billionaire allies are buying and consolidating media and tech to control the news, social media, AI and devices you use to push their propaganda and help track Americans
Trump’s attacks on democracy, our freedoms, and Americans aren’t individual attacks, they’re coordinated — and they aren’t for him to remain in power, it’s for whoever his Epstein class benefactors choose to succeed him.
Pay attention.
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
In this video, we reveal how Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner made up to $640M during Trump’s first term while claiming to work for free.
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
BREAKING: The price of feeding your family just changed and nobody told you. While you watched missiles hit Dimona and carriers steam toward Hormuz, the molecule that grows the food on your plate was quietly strangled behind the same 21-mile strait. Nitrogen. One-third of the world’s seaborne nitrogen fertilizer is trapped in the Persian Gulf. Twenty-one ships carrying a million metric tonnes cannot move. Urea at New Orleans surged from $516 to $683 per ton in a single week. And the countries that can least afford this are already breaking.
Bangladesh has shut five of its six urea factories. Gas rationing during the Boro rice harvest, the crop that feeds 170 million people. India’s fertilizer plants are running at 60 percent capacity. Delhi has formally requested emergency urea from China. China said no. Beijing implemented a near-total export ban on nitrogen-potassium blends and phosphate in mid-March to protect its own farmers. Pakistan’s production has halted. Sri Lanka imports 100 percent of its synthetic fertilizer, 60 to 70 percent of it from the Gulf that is now closed. Sudan, already confirmed in famine by the United Nations, sources 54 percent of its fertilizer from Gulf producers. These are not commodity statistics. These are countries where the next harvest determines whether children eat.
The Gulf accounts for 49 percent of global urea exports and 30 percent of ammonia. Natural gas is the feedstock for ammonia. Ammonia is the feedstock for urea. Urea is the feedstock for food. Four links in a chain and the first runs through Hormuz. As of March 18, American retail urea is $674 per ton. Anhydrous ammonia has crossed $900 for the first time since May 2023. The American Farm Bureau warned Trump directly that without prioritising fertilizer delivery, the United States risks a crop shortfall threatening food and national security. The US produces three-quarters of its own nitrogen. Bangladesh produces almost none.
Every exit is sealed. The Gulf is blocked. China banned exports. The G7 maintains no strategic fertilizer reserves. None. The first vessel to transit Hormuz since the war began was a Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker, not a fertilizer carrier. When the strait cracks open, oil goes first. The commodity that fuels economies takes priority over the commodity that feeds people.
The US Corn Belt planting window opens in three weeks. India’s Kharif season begins in May. A vessel loading urea in the Gulf today takes 30 days to reach port and another month to reach a farmer’s field. IFPRI estimates a 20 percent nitrogen shortfall could cut global yields by 5 to 10 percent permanently. A ceasefire on April 15 does not put nitrogen in the soil on April 16. The calendar is a biological instrument. It does not negotiate with presidents or generals.
The strait is 21 miles wide. The factories are dark in Dhaka. The fields are waiting in Punjab. The children are hungry in Darfur. And the nitrogen that could change all of it is sitting on ships that cannot move, in a country that banned its export, and in reserves that do not exist. The missiles will end. The war will end. The harvest that was lost because the molecules arrived too late will not come back.
Full analysis:
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: The world spent fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that no geopolitical shock could starve civilization of energy. Nobody built the equivalent for fertilizer. That is the most expensive oversight in the history of modern statecraft, and you are about to pay for it at the grocery store. The Strait of Hormuz does not merely carry 20% of global oil. UNCTAD estimates roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it. The Fertilizer Institute estimates that conflict-exposed exporters account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur trade. Since February 28, daily ship transits have collapsed by 97%. Here is what almost nobody understands about why this is not "just another commodity spike." It was not the missiles that closed the strait. It was the insurance. Multiple P&I clubs cancelled war-risk extensions for the Gulf after 26 months of Red Sea losses had already depleted their Solvency II capital buffers. War-risk premiums surged from 0.25% to as high as 5% of hull value per transit. A urea cargo cannot absorb that. The economics of fertilizer shipping through Hormuz became impossible before a single mine needed to detonate. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion sovereign-backed reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter. There is no confirmed public evidence that a single fertilizer vessel has used it. Insurance pays for financial loss. It does not intercept anti-ship missiles. Physical security remains the binding constraint, and the US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is "not ready" for commercial escorts. Now here is the part that should terrify every allocator on Earth. Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. Corn Belt farmers need nitrogen applied by mid-April. Indian Kharif season prep starts in May. Australian winter crop needs urea by June. These are not financial deadlines that reprice. They are photosynthetic deadlines that, once missed, produce irreversible yield loss. A diplomatic breakthrough on April 15 does not help a farmer who needed fertilizer on April 1. And the yield math is nonlinear. Wall Street models fertilizer-to-output as proportional. It is not. The response is quadratic. In developed systems that over-apply nitrogen, a 15% reduction costs 2-5% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already under-apply, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021 when a sudden fertilizer ban collapsed rice production 40% in a single season and brought down the government. The market is pricing a 45-day disruption. The insurance architecture says 120 days minimum. Even after a hypothetical ceasefire, Solvency II capital rebuild, reinsurance treaty renegotiation, and vessel re-underwriting take months. The Red Sea precedent: 26 months after Houthi attacks began, war-risk premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels. Both sides are rejecting negotiations. Trump rebuffed ceasefire mediation March 14. Iran's foreign minister on March 15: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Meanwhile: 51% of US corn areas in drought. El Nino favored by June at 62% probability. Skymet assigns 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. India formally asked China for urea on March 12. Egypt faces $28 billion in debt repayments while importing 12.7 million tonnes of wheat. WFP identifies 318 million people already at crisis-level hunger. The world stockpiled oil but forgot to stockpile the molecules that produce half its food. The clock is the position. Full analysis in the link! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
BREAKING - See this alert with Iran threat to target US-listed companies:
IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY COMPANIES WITH U.S SHARES WILL BE 'COMPLETELY DESTROYED' IF ENERGY FACILITIES TARGETED - STATEMENT
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A bunch of overly aggressive ICE agents at major airports with already frustrated travelers — what could go wrong?
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
BASH: Are ICE agents going to move into American airports starting tomorrow? HOMAN: Yes. I'm currently working on the plan. We'll execute tomorrow. BASH: Are ICE agents even remotely trained to handle security at airports? HOMAN: ICE agents receive high-level training.
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
Iran says it will retaliate across the Middle East and "irreversibly" destroy critical infrastructure if President Trump carries out a threat to "obliterate" Iran's power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully open within 48 hours. Follow live updates. cnn.it/4uAY4R0
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DANA BASH: With respect, if you're implementing a plan to have ICE at airports in 24 hours, how well thought out could it possibly be?
TOM HOMAN: How much of a plan does it mean to guard an exit to make sure no one comes through that exit?
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@BulwarkOnline Guarding an exit. What a great way to spend taxpayer dollars.
#SendICEtoIran
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Bash on plan to put ICE agents in airports: “If you’re doing this in 24 hours, how well thought out could it possibly be?”
Homan: “How much of a plan does it mean to guard an exit to make sure no one comes through that exit?…These officers are well trained in security.”
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Jack Johnson retweetledi
BASH: “Are ICE agents going to move into 🇺🇸 airports tomorrow?”
HOMAN: “Yes.”
(From @BlueATLGeorgia)
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WELKER: If the point of sanctions was to stop funding the Russian war machine, why is the administration effectively rewarding Russia now?
BESSENT: Again Kristen, you're missing the point
WELKER: They wouldn't have gotten any money with sanctions in place
BESSENT: Kristen, whoever does your research, you should get rid of
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🚨NEW: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte tells CBS they “cannot confirm” Israel’s assessment that missiles fired at Diego Garcia were Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Rutte also tried to frame the war as a necessity and called on Americans to back President Trump, saying: “I’ve seen the polling, but I really hope the American people will be with him, because he’s doing this to make the whole world safe.”
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@atrupar So he is saying his sanctions were ineffective? Can’t have it both ways, you f**king clown.
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WELKER: Isn't the point of sanctions to prevent Iran from getting any of the money?
BESSENT: Again, Kristen, you're missing the point. So please listen to me.
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Trump’s Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins: "Over the last year, we've brought almost all food prices down, with a couple of outliers."
Fact check: false.
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@TMZ So people don’t even have to be peaceful protesting to get shot…
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Welker: Do you think it's appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of a Bronze Star, Purple Heart recipient who served in Vietnam?
Bessent: Neither one of us can understand what has been done to the president and his family.
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BRENNAN: Doesn't this benefit Putin?
MARK RUTTE: I know the president and his team -- Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio -- they are constantly working to put maximum pressure on the Russians to come to a deal
BRENNAN: This isn't maximum pressure
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