Jason Estock

draft kings cofounder cope goes harder than anything I’ve seen even in crypto, impressive crashout

This is like the former CEO of Marlboro going on a multi day rant about the evils of vaping. This guy was is the fun version of Gouker. Hope he sticks around.

@Gisele111122 @IterIntellectus @grok is this true?

From Grok: “His response is blunt, dismissive, and overly hostile—classic X shitpost energy, especially given his bio (“professional shitpoaster”). It’s not a substantive rebuttal; it’s an emotional shutdown that reframes your point uncharitably to dunk on it. What he got wrong / why it’s weak • Strawman: You said people hesitate because they don’t want innocent kids to suffer amid adult uncertainty/struggle. He twists it into “you don’t want kids to suffer” (implying malice or hypocrisy) and calls it pure selfishness. That’s a leap. Your phrasing was about protective empathy for potential children, not “I refuse to let them exist.” Plenty of data supports emotional/psychological barriers to fertility: anxiety, uncertainty, fear of instability, and a sense that one isn’t “ready” are real factors in delayed or forgone childbearing. ifstudies.org • Ignores nuance: Fertility decline isn’t one variable. Economic pressures, cultural shifts, education/career priorities, housing/childcare costs, and yes—personal readiness and mental health—all play roles. Your point adds the “heart” layer without denying the rest. Dismissing it as the “stupidest and most retarded excuse” skips over evidence that many people do cite wanting stability for their kids as a reason for waiting. nytimes.com • Tone over substance: The “shut the fuck up” opener signals he’s not engaging in good faith. He’s signaling to his audience (“this is low-value sentimentality”) rather than addressing the idea. Threads like this often attract strong reactions when someone introduces non-“red pill”/data-maxxing framing. That said, his underlying frustration is understandable in pronatalist circles: framing low fertility as mostly “adults aren’t ready” can sound like excusing individualism or delayed adulthood instead of pushing back against structural/cultural disincentives. Some see it as defeatist. Overall take It’s a low-effort own that prioritizes edginess over dialogue. Your original point wasn’t ridiculous—it humanizes the data. A better response from him would’ve been something like: “That’s part of it, but it’s downstream of [X,Y,Z] bigger issues—economic reality, cultural messaging, etc.—and calling it out shouldn’t let people off the hook for prioritizing comfort.” You handled the thread thoughtfully. His reply says more about the combative vibe of these fertility debates than about the strength of your observation. People are often selfish in modern choices, but that doesn’t make the emotional reluctance you described fake or invalid.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​“

there is another variable that correlates at roughly 0.9 with the fertility decline but we are not allowed to talk about it

The funniest thing about Martin Shkreli is that he lost like $200k on the Cardi B Super Bowl HT market on polymarket and now he just posts about how much prediction markets suck

@mattkalish The amount on the left is what DraftKings would take from a sharp bettor.

@mattkalish Hey Matt it's because your business model can tell people to fuck off and theirs can't - hope this helps clear things up for you. x.com/LSPReport/stat…

@dankness3 There are no 30% fees. Fee schedule is here kalshi.com/fee-schedule

The whole appeal of Polymarket and Kalshi was the idea that you would be avoiding fees. I wonder how many of these causal bettors even realize they are paying a 30% fee on their bets for absolutely nothing.

Remember guys, if a prediction market says the likelihood of something happening is 51% and it happens, the market was completely right, but if it was 49%, the market was dead wrong. This is how probabilities work. Hope this helps 👍

If Fanduel is offering the best price… In any case, the price we see as customers are the result of an immense amount of competition, lowering costs for users.

@nikicaga It's the ask/buy-now price

Those percentages add up to 109% 😭

interesting how completely the conversation has shifted to kids. initially, most people assumed we were talking about adults, not babies smashing buttons, which kind of breaks the thought experiment. that this is all we’re now discussing implies blues understand they were wrong.

I've noticed sports bettors are a bit obsessed with classifying PMs as gambling, or at least in the same breath as casinos. It's stupid. A tweet yday on Kalshi (but applies to Poly, BF, etc.) made this point & it drove me nuts. Responding in 2nd tweet. howgamblingworks.substack.com/p/kalshis-favo…

Why in the world would you tip after winning on a slot machine?

58% of people in a consequence-free poll say they will press blue. What percentage actually do when their life is at risk?

It’s a great sound bite: “Why can’t they follow the same rules as sportsbooks?” They can’t, and forcing a company to try would eradicate the model entirely. I doubt the AG knows this, but the people and money behind this effort certainly do!

@MikeMcDonald89 @gogogunny ???

@gogogunny I read it but I don't see what in the article implies it is the wrong number. Maybe I'm confused that (100-74) happens to equal (74 -48) or maybe you are? Where does 48 or (74-48) come from?

Rory McIlroy went from 71% to 39% in todays round at Augusta. I wrote about why 70+% was the wrong number - and why the crowd was handing away edge from the opening tee shot. The math on prediction markets, loss aversion, and the best free bet in any market .👇

@donut604 @BartHanson We are not winning 1/10 times. We win 4/45 = 1/11.25

@BartHanson @jasonestock And if we are winning 1/10 times don’t we only need 9:1 on our call to break even?

I asked this at my Harvard lecture and none of the students got it: In a $100 pot we have 65dd on btn after calling a UTG preflop raise. Board Ks7c3h. UTG pots $100. We know he has AA and will stack off. What is the min eff stack on the flop before the bet to make a call profit

@BartHanson (45-4) / 4 = 10.25 $1025 - $100 = $925

@jasonestock Show math please!!!

@DataBasedBets Would be good for 2+/3+ home runs

NEW: Kalshi adds decimals to the Masters Outrights, but restricts decimals to just the 0.1c - 9.9c (and 90.1c - 99.9c) range. Personally, I think this the best outcome for golf. I hope the 1c tick size remains in place for other sports event contracts and this is limited to golf