jp 🫡
4.2K posts
BREAKING: World Health Organization: "This is not Coronavirus. This is a very different virus… this is not the start of a COVID pandemic."
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@Hedgeye When was there an all time high and sentiment tanking like this?
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
The S&P 500 has made an new all-time high, pushing above 7,400
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jp 🫡 retweetledi
Who’s hiring PMs right now?
Reply with the role, company, location.
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Jack Dorsey just laid off half of his company in a single tweet. 4,000 people gone
Not because business is down
But because AI made them unnecessary
If you aren’t AI native, you have become expendable to execs.
You need to learn these skills now:
1. How to build software in Claude Code
2. How to automate in OpenClaw
3. How to create artifacts in Claude Cowork
4. How to orchestrate multiple agents in Codex
5. How to use ChatGPT as a copilot for everything you do
These aren’t optional skills anymore. They’re mandatory.
And the time you have left to learn them has quickly disappeared.
jack@jack
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack
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lol… they do have good humor on occasion (this is not real in case you are wondering)
allen farrington@allenf32
I don’t want people to panic but I think I might have found where Epstein influenced core development 👀 has anybody noticed this before? is there some alternative explanation I’m not grasping?
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As everyone digests the new #EpsteinFiles bombshells, let me add a v small puzzle piece: I’ve discussed previously how I’ve been sitting on a couple of bombshells. Would it surprise you to learn one pertains to someone who showed up in the #EpsteinFiles? #corruption everywhere🤬
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@bcherny Thanks for the tips. Are you seeing issues with Skills not always being triggered or used? Trying to get my team to begin leveraging them. vercel.com/blog/agents-md…
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Hope these tips are helpful! What do you want to hear about next?
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I'm Boris and I created Claude Code. I wanted to quickly share a few tips for using Claude Code, sourced directly from the Claude Code team. The way the team uses Claude is different than how I use it. Remember: there is no one right way to use Claude Code -- everyones' setup is different. You should experiment to see what works for you!
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jp 🫡 retweetledi
jp 🫡 retweetledi
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes
What do Mamdani, meme stocks, and Nick Fuentes have in common? Angry followers who feel they have been left behind in the Great Reset. The America Dream of Homeownership and starting a family seems like an American Fantasy. Inflation is not the problem. Affordability is. open.substack.com/pub/hayekandka…
QME
Added a small update to my 2nd critique of Michael Green (@profplum99). I realized another BLS spreadsheet will let you estimate childcare spending for those with any childcare spending. Green's unsourced estimate is nearly $33K. In 2022, BLS says ~$16,000.
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Traveling to New Orleans for the Investment Conference. Here is the deck for the speech I will be delivering on Tuesday (Nov 4) at 2:45 pm CST. Also, on a Future of Money Panel on Wednesday at 8:45 am. Still time to get a ticket, also virtual tickets available for remote viewing. See next Tweet.
drive.google.com/file/d/1g7XpAM…
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for the bay area earthquake witch will occur on 10/16/25 to 10/17/25 will affect redwood city or santa cruz county and all of the bay area
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Magnitude 7.4~ earthquake impacting #BayArea, epicenter possibly Redwood city or Santa Cruz County, California on 10/16/25 and 10/17/25
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Sharing my free resources with investors:
1. Valuation Cheat Sheet
investinassets.gumroad.com/l/zxxpc
2. How to identify a compounder
investinassets.gumroad.com/l/wavnmm
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10 Incredible Lessons from 100-Baggers by Chris Mayer:
🧵
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This Redditor created a genius prompt to extract insights from long YouTube videos 👇
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I am going live and invite you to a fruitful discussion in my video comments.
youtube.com/watch?v=f2kRVQ…
#economics
YouTube
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If anyone has friends on the editorial teams of the @WSJ, @FinancialTimes, @barronsonline, @CNBC, @Bloomberg, or @FoxBusiness, please have them reach out to exclusively feature this timely OpEd I just penned regarding the @federalreserve after their policy mistake today. Enjoy!
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The Honorable Jerome Powell
Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
Dear Chair Powell:
Why did you cut 100bps last fall but claim to see little reason to cut 25bps today? It can be argued that your political posturing will all but guarantee the Fed’s independence is at least marginally eroded by the upcoming series of appointees to the board — including your replacement.
The increasingly likely erosion of Fed independence may prove to be more significant than “marginally,” and here’s why:
It is reasonable to question your data dependency because the labor market is worse now than it was then. Private Sector Labor Income grew 4.7% on a three-month annualized basis in Aug-24 — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. FWIW, 4.7% is comfortably above the pre-COVID trend of 4.3%. Fast forward to today, Private Sector Labor Income grew just 1.4% on a three-month annualized basis in June – the lowest rate since Jun-20. The -370bps MoM deceleration marked the slowest rate of change since May-22.
It is also reasonable to question your data dependency because inflation is lower now than it was then. The Super Core PCE Deflator — the inflation metric over which you purported to have the most control as monetary policymakers — was reported at 2.2% on a three-month annualized basis, 2.8% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.2% on a YoY basis in Jul-24 (mean = 2.7%) — the last report you had on hand before your jumbo-sized 50bps cut last September. The Super Core PCE Deflator is currently mired in a downtrend at 1.1% on a three-month annualized basis, 3.1% on a six-month annualized basis, and 3.1% on a YoY basis as of May-25 (mean = 2.4%).
To be clear, we are not even advocating for cutting the policy rate. We do not believe the economy requires rate cuts for the business cycle expansion to persist over a multi-year time horizon and have remained the most bullish non-permabull on global Wall Street since May 3 (Google search or ChatGPT query “Paradigm C” for details).
What we are advocating is that you drop the “Mr. Tough Guy” act on inflation.
You had no problem being the most dovish Fed chair since the advent of using the policy rate as the primary tool for conducting monetary policy. Arthur Burns’ trough spread of -720bps below what would have been the baseline Taylor Rule estimate at the time looks hawkish compared to your trough spread of -1,040bps in Feb-22 — when you were still performing quantitative easing into a 40-year high in inflation.
You had no problem growing the Fed’s balance sheet to a peak of 36% of GDP in Nov-21 — a year in which the federal budget deficit clocked 10% of GDP, after a whopping 15% in 2020. These figures compare to just 5% in 2019, 4% in 2018, and 3% in 2017. The current Fed balance sheet/GDP ratio of 22% is still well north of the long-run mean of 16% for this time series — data which features your ultra-dovish focus on “maximum and inclusive employment” and green-energy-supportive monetary policy.
We do empathize with why you’re acting tough on inflation. Respectfully, sir, you are 72 years old and like most people in their 70s, you may be succumbing to the understandably human desire to build and preserve your legacy.
Additionally, the Trump administration’s tariff policy shock is significantly larger than anyone expected. Per the Budget Lab at my alma mater Yale, the overall average effective tariff rate of 18.4% is the highest rate since 1933. At some point this will feel like inflation as affected goods finally pass through the system.
But the preponderance of credible academic literature concludes tariffs aren’t inflationary. The PhD economists at your own institution agree — or at least they did agree prior to President Trump’s second ascent into the Oval Office, but that’s neither here nor there.
What is relevant here is the slowdown in Real Services PCE, which grew a paltry 1.1% on a QoQ SAAR basis in Q2 — just one-third of the 3.0% rate recorded in 2024. Real GDP ex-Government & Net Exports contracted at a -3.2% QoQ SAAR pace in Q2, the lowest rate since the COVID lockdowns of 2Q20.
There was a sound economic case to be made for lower policy rates today — we wouldn’t have had two Fed governors dissent for the first time in 32 years otherwise.
Specifically, the labor market is likely to weaken further on a lag to the near contraction in capex observed in the Q2 GDP data (0.4% QoQ SAAR vs. a pre-COVID trend of 3.5%), slowdown in corporate profits growth (S&P 500 constituents 6.4% YoY Q2-to-date vs. 13.6% in Q1 and 11.3% in 2024), and persistently elevated policy uncertainty (e.g., highest ever yearly average for the Baker, Bloom, and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty Index — a time series that includes data from both COVID and the GFC).
There is an equally unsound economic case to be made for keeping policy rates cyclically and structurally elevated today: the risk of “unanchoring” inflation expectations.
Putting aside the fact that we do not believe the mere ‘unanchoring’ of inflation expectations can cause persistent above-trend inflation in the absence of persistent above-trend credit growth in either the private or public sectors, Chair Powell, you and your colleagues are the primary reason this risk exists. You let the inflation genie out of the bottle by running historically expansionary monetary policy amid an obvious and historic expansion of fiscal policy.
This is why we strongly believe the administration is right to pursue regime change at the Fed. Whether or not they get it right is irrelevant at this juncture. Time will tell on that front.
Lastly, please do not interpret this as a personal attack on you or the institution. Rather, this is a data-driven perspective on how you and your colleagues at the institution have failed the American public and continue to fail the American public. Heaven forbid the FOMC be held accountable for the dramatic outcomes it contributes to in our K-shaped economy and asset markets.
Anyone reading this would be a fool to not agree that better monetary policy can potentially help engineer better outcomes for the consumers and businesses trapped on the bottom part of the “K”.
There are obviously no guarantees that the pending regime change at the Fed will accomplish this goal — or in life in general, save for the fact that two wrongs don’t make a right in Fed policy mistake terms.
Thank you for reviewing, and thank you for your service to the American public. Regardless of whether you and I see eye to eye on your still-developing track record, I recognize how hard your job is and appreciate your efforts nonetheless.
Thank you and God bless,
Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of @42Macro
Darius Dale@DariusDale42
THREAD: This will likely be the most important thread regarding the @federalreserve you've reviewed in a very long time. 1/6
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Worthy Read: A Deep Dive Into MCP and the Future of AI Tooling by Yoko Li
"APIs were the internet's first great unifier—creating a shared language for software to communicate — but AI models lack an equivalent."
Learn about Model Context Protocol (MCP), a potential standard that could change how AI models interact with tools and services 🤖
What you'll learn:
🔧 How MCP works as an open protocol for AI-tool interaction
💻 Popular use cases in development and beyond
🌐 Current state of the MCP ecosystem
🔮 Future challenges to solve:
• Hosting and multi-tenancy
• Authentication
• Authorization
• Server discoverability
• Debugging capabilities
Key implications for the future:
📈 Companies will compete on tool quality for AI agents
💰 New pricing models may emerge
📝 Documentation becomes crucial infrastructure
🔄 APIs evolve into more complex tool interactions
☁️ New hosting solutions will be needed
Read the article: buff.ly/cXUCuJb
❓ Which MCP use case mentioned in the article interests you the most? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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