Justin
189 posts
@JoshYoung company with conflict of interest in oil prices going higher says prices will go higher
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Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks
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@robin_j_brooks oil was going to $40 before the war. oil bulls are anchoring their expectations at $100 oil.
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It's 3 months of fearmongering on oil prices. What these voices never address is what's already in the price. Brent is up 60% from before the war. Inventories are down, but markets are forward-looking. This got priced long ago. That's what doomers miss...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…
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Managed money can't really build a large long position in oil, let alone hold it over the weekend.
One post can wipe them out, so they simply don't do it. Their risk parameters won't allow it.
Also, producers are barely hedging at these prices. And without hedging there's no investment, and without investment we won't see any meaningful new supply for years to come.
Ole S Hansen@Ole_S_Hansen
#Commodities Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian officials reportedly halted negotiations with the US in protest over Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon. President Trump later sought to calm markets by insisting talks remained ongoing and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, although the two sides offered differing accounts of the conversation. Beneath the headline-driven volatility, global energy markets continue to tighten, with the main focus remaining on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery that remains effectively shut, sustaining concerns about supply disruptions and elevated energy prices. Gold continues to take its cues from the oil market given crude's influence on inflation expectations and, by extension, interest rates, bond yields and the dollar. The metal came under pressure on Monday as oil prices surged and stronger-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data temporarily pushed Treasury yields higher. While the report's Prices Paid component remained elevated, it came in slightly below expectations, helping to temper some inflation concerns. Since then, gold has recovered to trade back above USD 4,500. However, from a technical perspective, the metal remains in a short-term downtrend, with a break above USD 4,630 needed to signal a more constructive outlook and potentially attract fresh momentum buying. Grain markets remain under pressure, with corn falling to fresh multi-week lows, down 9% in the last month, and wheat trading near a one-month low as favorable US growing conditions, strong South American harvest prospects and ample global supplies continue to weigh on prices. Soybeans have also softened amid good crop prospects and subdued demand from China. While grains have at times tracked movements in crude oil due to their role in biofuel production, supportive weather conditions and comfortable supply expectations are currently proving the dominant market drivers.
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@profstonge @Xavier_Denn1 well unless you want to force the japanese to have children and raise them to become stable adults than you have to deal with immigration to fill gaps in employment and economy.
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@Xavier_Denn1 The more beautiful something is the more they want to destroy it.
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Japan’s set to import another 800,000 third-worlders just months after an election promising to crack down on migration.
At this rate Japan will be mostly non-Japanese in just 33 years.
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If a 4.5+ trillion $ company needs to issue equity like a common low/medium market cap, people shall better ask themselves serious questions about whether or not these firms are wasting a biblical amount of capital when still it hasn’t even started to repay itself after years
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Meta will be forced to sell shares next
$META
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@lzab1453 @theBuoyantMan you can certainly get demand destruction without an economic slowdown. There are papers published on this question by the fed and other economic think tanks. It's known that the doubling of oil only leads to 5% demand destruction. We lost 12% so we need $150-180 barrels
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I don’t think there’s a definition that says what SPRs should be used for and what not…
Also, demand destruction = economic slowdown..you can’t have demand destruction without an economic slowdown…
The “they’re manipulating the price”argument is and excuse for wrongly positioned investors…
Anyway my point is not about the gravity of the situation (which it is, especially if prolonged), it’s about the argument made by a lot of people that inventories should not be drawn…
GIF
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If inventories are not drawn at record levels during one of the major supply shocks ever, so that prices are kept stable…what are they there for?
#oott
zerohedge@zerohedge
Oil Conundrum: Record Inventory Draws And Stable Crude Prices zerohedge.com/energy/oil-con…
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@lzab1453 @HouseOfChains_ I think you do not understand trumps fiscal policies. Everything he and bessent do is in order to pump liquidity into stocks and signal commodities lower through hopium.
Once we get to SPR floors there won't be room for jawboning.
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@HouseOfChains_ And aren’t current draws guaranteeing operational continuity now? Why does it have always to be “they’re manipulating prices”
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@BarackO59493 @calvinfroedge only reason why anyone would talk about it as much as him is if he was coping.
I do believe oil can go much higher but it requires a lot more outcomes, and time, than what he and other reactionaries care to admit.
until then tech is the only thing worth longing. short energy.
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I have traded every shipping bottleneck since 2018.
People are wildly underestimating the logistical issues. The Red Sea never went back to normal after Houthi attacks.
My take - Hormuz traffic won't be back at pre war levels this time next year.
Marhelm@MarhelmData
A Captain tells us that hull cleaning under normal conditions for most ships requires "several days" to complete for commercial tankers. Now add "spectacular" barnacle infestations and all ships requiring cleaning simultaneously. Port congestion and logistical nightmares!
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@basedposadist1 @dopamine_uptake few understand this. we should be there around july-august. especially going into a super el nino. cooling costs going through the roof with data center growth too.
But not worth longing oil until we get to that point. I think once we get back to $75/barrel we long oil.
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@dopamine_uptake This chart still looks horrifying especially when considering the operational floor is much higher than 0
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@jackprandelli Yeah, fcking Biden emptied them out when he FOUND OUT 🤡 that his policies caused inflation.
NO SHIT?! He FORCED a replacement of proven energy sources with unproven green energy sources… & had to back track!
5th graders understand this.
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🚨The world released 285 million barrels from strategic reserves in just 4 months.
By July, the taps are nearly dry. ⚠️
Global strategic stock draws, Mar–Jun 2026:
→ March: 36 mb
→ April: 79 mb
→ May: 74 mb
→ June: 76 mb (forecast)
→ July: 22 mb (
→ August: 20 mb
The US SPR is doing the heaviest lifting the dominant blue bar every single month.
When strategic releases drop from 76 mb/month to 22 mb/month and Hormuz is still semi-closed, the market has to find its own price.
That price is higher than the one the SPR was suppressing.
Central banks can't fix a physical supply shock.
Strategic reserves can absorb it temporarily.
Both tools are now reaching their limits simultaneously.
Full analysis including what this means for commodity inflation and the assets positioned to benefit in my latest article.
Link in the comments 👇
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@AndrewBrod65861 @jackprandelli @PrepperCanadian yes because we have been drawing from SPRs to make up the gap of the SOH.
Oil bulls will have it right but only the patient ones. I'm not entering the trade until at least august.
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@jackprandelli @PrepperCanadian It was supposed to be the end of march.. nothing. Then three times in April. Nothing then nearly the entire world in a shock mid may and nothing… all bullshit. No doubt a shortage but not even 10% of what they are making it out to be or what will happen.
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@BuySellStopcom @jackprandelli oil reserves have a floor of around 250 mb. they are built into salt mines and tankards that cannot be drained to zero.
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@jackprandelli the taps are not nearly dry you lying POS. There are still 365 million barrels in the US reserve and another 440 million barrels in private tanks.
eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/…
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@rickjeff78 not if those companies hedged with oil futures before the war started.
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@AnthonyGriz they missed the note where oil was going to $50 before the strait was closed.
So with that being said we still had a doubling of price. The upside here is limited. The fed is fighting price discovery. Its not worth speculating until reserves empty and there is no where to go.
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Just a reminder just about every single person who is a proclaimed oil expert… Guaranteed crude oil would be $150 a barrel and approaching $200– hasn’t quite panned out like that.
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@pickeringenergy well if one is trading oil it helps to be aware of the forces working against bulls. Too many "smart" people ignoring the reality of manipulated markets and are playing into the FUD too hard.
Oil is up significantly. Yes it can go higher, but it doesn't necessarily have to.
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@JamesJstuartb oil would just price it in extremely quickly. thats why I wont be long oil until at least July, maybe mid august. makes no sense to be long now.
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And they managed to get front month wti below 100, unbelievable
Reuters Energy and Commodities@ReutersCommods
Oil market could hit 'red zone' in July-August, IEA chief says reuters.com/business/energ…
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@DogMatixxxx @utopia_escape yeah but by then your calls could expire worthless
its just better to wait until oil tanks dry out and people cannot ignore the situations anymore.
idk why everyone thinks its helpful to be early. oil could drop 25% from here. better time to enter when that happens.
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@utopia_escape I’m sticking with the thesis that reality will prevail.
Spreading out my risk on high profile companies and laying out later dated calls. While painful in the short run (expectation wise) I’ve made money since the beginning of the war and will protect my initial capital.
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Watching this very significant "Iran will not make a deal on Trump's terms" news get faded while every hopium rumor gets smashed is tiring, but you know what?
Oil is $100 right now, and it's not overbought on the monthly. That's a first since 2014.
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