joal

Everybody and their mother knows NVIDIA will blow it out of the water tomorrow. And everybody and their mother now knows that when everybody and their mother knows NVIDIA will blow it out of the water, the stock will sell off because everything is baked in. So the stock will probably go up.

$NVDA markets down 3 days in a row heading into Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow. I’ll play it to the neutral/long side personally.

I don't think he does this again. He's said many times it's not about the money and he has enough voting control over SpaceX to offer Tesla shareholders any deal he wants. Even a 60/40 merger with Tesla shareholders getting the majority of the company would leave him with almost 50% voting control over the combined entity. He has no excuse but to make Tesla shareholders a decent offer.

They will when Elon says this “a no vote means the shareholders don’t want me so maybe I just leave”. Then our hands our tied and we have to do whatever is offered as the stock in that case would plummet until we find out the results because a no vote then means tsla is sub 200.

Elon: “Tesla has a chance to be the largest company in the world. Larger than the top two companies today combined.” Reality: Tesla will be bought and TSLA investors will be diluted, but Elon will be right. The man is right a lot.

@bennycraven @TeslaBoomerMama You have to take what you see on here with a grain of salt. A small number of people have a very loud voice that isn't necessarily representative of the majority.

@joalemm @TeslaBoomerMama My worry is that there’s seemingly a large number of shareholders who would happily vote for such a proposition.

If you are planning to buy SpaceX shares, how will you pay for it

@bennycraven @TeslaBoomerMama For a merger Elon needs the votes of Tesla shareholders. A lopsided proposition isn't going to pass.

@TeslaBoomerMama Sell TSLA, buy SpaceX. End up better-off post merger.

@TSLA_Bogdan @TeslaBoomerMama I doubt a lot of people will sell their Tesla and pay the capital gains to reinvest into SpaceX at 2 trillion+ valuation when worst case a merger of equals is expected in the near future.

@TeslaBoomerMama A lot of people will dump TSLA stock

@BoBbyPleWniaK It only seems that way cause most of the vocal Tesla people on here already have large positions in SpaceX. A merger doesn't dilute their Tesla position so they don't care.

FYI- I will not approve shit for a merger if $tsla is not near aths. I have a feeling I’m not the only one.

@TheLongInvest Look at the last Micron report. I could give you the print ahead of time and you'd still have no idea how to trade it. Wouldn't surprise me if it tanked on another blowout, or rallied on a miss.

Has there been a scenario over the last 3 years where $NVDA has not rallied into earnings, only to decline after a monster report? It seems to be the consistent playbook.

@LimitingThe What happened is most of the Tesla "influencers" on here already have large positions in xAI and SpaceX so a merger doesn't dilute their Tesla position.

If Robotaxis and Optimus are already baked in to Tesla's share price, why do we have a pay package for Elon assuming that the value of the company will at least 6x from here? What happened to all of the 10+ Trillion company valuation estimates and forecasts? What happened to all the people saying that could happen before 2030?

@TeslaBoomerMama @JayBarlowBot @bradsferguson @BurtonBolo @Gfilche @amy787 @CernBasher Nobody knows that FSD exists. They think it's just like every other ADAS. I have friends and family that own Tesla's and they don't even know about it. Tesla has to do something about this.

@JayBarlowBot @bradsferguson @BurtonBolo @Gfilche @amy787 @CernBasher Is it in the interest of shareholders to throw out $3 - 4bn annually in ad budget like GM does?

Setting merger date for 31-12-2027 works for @Gfilche and works for me too. If the ratio is determined around this date it should be fair enough for Tesla shareholders. @TeslaBoomerMama @amy787 @bradsferguson @CernBasher what do you think of this?

@bradsferguson If anybody can do it it'd be Elon but I'd be surprised if they had anything at scale anytime soon. From chips to memory, to thermals and cooling, to reliability and repair, everything needs to be redesigned for Space.

@joalemm They aren’t going to connect the space AI satellites physically. imo, they are about 3 years out if all goes well. That’s 3+ years that SpaceX stock may be stuck in neutral. Rhymes with what happened with $TSLA. A 20x, then stuck for a while

The market is vastly undervaluing Tesla today. Piper Sandler just said the market is assigning zero value for Optimus. If $TSLA would greatly increase when Robotaxi scales, then it is assigning a low probability of success to Tesla Robotaxi. Lower than what’s reasonable. ➡️ the stock market is not efficient. It tends to reflect way too much cynicism and skepticism for high growth disruptors. Unless the market is assigning zero probability of success of SpaceXAI datacenters… I don’t favor SpaceX getting Optimus for free and Robotaxi at a discount.

@BoBbyPleWniaK I believe the comp plan uses trailing 6 month average stock price so it has to remain at an elevated level to hit the milestone.

First market value milestone of Elon’s new comp plan is $TSLA 535, which equals 2 trillion. I like that area. The 500 calls I have sold, with the premium included, get me to 535. When I continue to manage up the 400 ITM calls now, I’ll look at this strike to target over 500. If I’m forced to continue managing the 400s slowly up, that means we are on the road there. Good problems to manage. That’s my goal.

I strongly disagree. Elon sent talent from Tesla to xAI, he redirected GPUs from Tesla to xAI. xAI has allegedly had access to Tesla's data. Now he's got Ashok working on Macrohard. When OpenAI first released Sora Elon posted about how Tesla had been able to do that for years. Tesla has acquired a lot of knowledge and IP that has no doubt found it's way to xAI. There's far too much crossover between the two companies.

@joalemm @CernBasher Nonsense, no bootstrapping took place by Tesla

Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI! The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer." On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments. Who could argue with that? I will. (I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time). AI waits for no one First, have you seen how fast AI is moving? How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know. How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know. So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space. The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most. Robotaxi Ramp Issues What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come? What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible? Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi. Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point. Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale." What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for? 1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash. 2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus. 3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car). 4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus. 5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus. 6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this). 7) SpaceX's material science expertise. Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above? - What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI? - What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI? Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus. That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time: - a Robotaxi mile is driven, - an Optimus unit uses Grok, - a vehicle connects through Starlink, - Tesla uses orbital data centers, - or Tesla runs fleet-level inference. So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage. Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever. Pick your poison carefully!

@grant_melson Like the rest of social media, most people are focused on engagement and building their brand. They're more concerned about follower count, or getting Elon to like a post than reality.

This is how bad the Tesla influencer culture is right now. Question a merger? Prepare for ad hominem attacks. We should be better than this

It might not. But there's no guarantee a merger with SpaceX works out either. SpaceX just had a funding round at 800 billion valuation and now we're talking 2 trillion IPO. If SpaceX runs post IPO you might be merging at peak valuation. Starship could have setbacks along with increased Starlink competition. You could just as easily see Tesla dragged down by SpaceX post merger.

@jared60901160 @DoctorJack16 And what if the market does not give you your dreamt of valuation of robotaxi? What then?

Excellent article by @DoctorJack16 on all the good reasons for a merger. Now add - governance solved - SpaceXAI shielding Tesla's operations from politics - short term squeezing short sellers and index funds But yes, let's wait for the market to account for robotaxis 🙄

@Rebellionaire Well said

Tesla shareholders funded the robotaxi vision through the hard part. The missed timelines, ridicule, drawdowns, and the “FSD is impossible” years. So if Tesla ever gets folded into SpaceX, the question isn’t “would that be cool?” It’s: who gets paid for the robotaxi value? Bradford breaks it down here.👇

@NickGibbsIAG Pretty wild just a month ago MU was at 311 and "TurboQuant" and "memory is cyclical" was all you heard. Narratives sure do change fast.

When $MU & $SNDK begin to sell off.. and they will eventually. It's going to be wild. Might be in 3 months or tomorrow. But it will be epic. This reminds me a lot of $MSTR in 2024. Or $APP last year.

@BoBbyPleWniaK Now bracing for a market sell off and Tesla will happily reclaim it's 2x+ beta to the downside.

Tick tock $tsla. Another day markets make new aths.

I don't dispute that. I just don't think Elon is gonna vote against the perceived financial interests of SpaceX to benefit Tesla shareholders regardless of past performance. After SpaceX IPOs you're gonna have a lot of new money flowing in that didn't participate in that run. Merging with Tesla at a lopsided valuation is gonna be a tough sell.

@joalemm @toptiptom @bradsferguson SpaceX shareholders will have just made between 10x and 100x in the IPO, depending when they bought in. (If they bought in in 2021, they’ll 10x. Earlier? Even more.) They aren’t the ones who’ve been waiting 5 years for Robotaxi to scale & are getting rug-pulled at the last minute

$TSLA shareholders, should Tesla wait for robotaxi value unlock before allowing itself to be merged with SpaceX for no premium vs current share price?