Joe B

1K posts

Joe B

Joe B

@joe_mjb

Too late to speculate?

Katılım Ocak 2016
1.9K Takip Edilen125 Takipçiler
Joe B retweetledi
BlindSquirrelMacro
BlindSquirrelMacro@SquirrelMacro·
Delighted that my pal Craig Coben @thekrazykobra - another senior ECM banker has decided to chip in here via the FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… Craig - I hope you wrote a letter to Nasdaq too?!!!
BlindSquirrelMacro@SquirrelMacro

Thanks @profplum99 for motivating me to take a moment to write in as well. The Nasdaq 100 index committee risks tainting the US capital formation system that is the envy of the world. Dear Sirs, I am writing to comment on Proposal 2 (“Fast Entry”) and Proposal 3 (the “5x Free Float Multiplier”) in the February 2026 Nasdaq 100 Consultation. I have spent over 30 years in capital markets. 25 years of which were in investment banking where I led ECM businesses for Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies in Europe and Asia. In that period, I led or advised on hundreds of IPOs and equity offerings, including numerous SEC registered (foreign issuer) deals on the Nasdaq. - I can see exactly how rule changes like this will be gamed and abused by issuers and insiders. - These proposed rule changes do not represent progress - they make a mockery of price discovery and dump concept valuation securities on unsuspecting retail investors. 5x Free Float Multiplier - Low float IPOs are already creating a negative view of US IPOs. To reward low float deals with robotic flows is absurd - The 5x uplift for stocks with less than 20% free float tears up one of the traditional and necessary trade-offs that companies made when going public. - Historically, if you want index inclusion and a lower cost of capital, you need to put real float into real public hands. - This rule creates the opposite effect. You are effectively telling issuers: keep 80–90% of the stock locked up and we will treat you, for index flows, like a 50% float company. That is a built‑in short squeeze on passive investors. - Insider shares, options, and RSUs go deep in the money, not because fundamentals improved, but because the rulebook forces passive capital to chase an artificially scarce float. Fast Entry - “Fast Entry” collapses seasoning for very large new listings. A mega‑cap IPO that hits the size threshold is pulled into the index after a token trading history. - Everyone in the market will know roughly when the forced buyer (such as the QQQ ETF) shows up. - Early listing of listed options on new IPOs can and will exaggerate this effect. I would not rule out insider involvement in that activity. - That is an invitation to structure deals, allocations, and lock‑ups around predictable index flows - This is clearly being teed up for the SpaceX and OpenAI / Anthropic IPOs. I predict that retail investors and unwitting passive investors will be harmed. Why This Matters for a Systemic Benchmark - The Nasdaq 100  / QQQ sits at the center of global ETF complex, driving trillions of dollars of futures, options, and structured product activity. - Embedding low‑float amplifiers and rapid inclusion of unseasoned giants increases concentration in names with untested liquidity and makes a mockery of price discovery. - Disorderly moves around IPOs and rebalance dates. - The use of passive capital as an insider liquidity tool, not a neutral allocator. What You Should Do - Drop the 5x low‑float multiplier. Index weight should follow freely tradable equity, not scarcity. - Tighten or rethink Fast Entry so that very large new listings prove liquidity and trading history before inclusion. - Reaffirm that the purpose of the index is investability and credible price discovery—not maximizing monetization for tightly held new issues. If you proceed with these changes as drafted, the message will be clear: Nasdaq is willing to subordinate price discovery and market integrity to the interests of insiders and deal‑makers. You are now writing that preference directly into the rules. Yours faithfully, Rupert Mitchell Former senior ECM banker, over 25 years advising issuers and investors on IPOs and capital markets offerings as a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies.

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Joe B retweetledi
BlindSquirrelMacro
BlindSquirrelMacro@SquirrelMacro·
Thanks @profplum99 for motivating me to take a moment to write in as well. The Nasdaq 100 index committee risks tainting the US capital formation system that is the envy of the world. Dear Sirs, I am writing to comment on Proposal 2 (“Fast Entry”) and Proposal 3 (the “5x Free Float Multiplier”) in the February 2026 Nasdaq 100 Consultation. I have spent over 30 years in capital markets. 25 years of which were in investment banking where I led ECM businesses for Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies in Europe and Asia. In that period, I led or advised on hundreds of IPOs and equity offerings, including numerous SEC registered (foreign issuer) deals on the Nasdaq. - I can see exactly how rule changes like this will be gamed and abused by issuers and insiders. - These proposed rule changes do not represent progress - they make a mockery of price discovery and dump concept valuation securities on unsuspecting retail investors. 5x Free Float Multiplier - Low float IPOs are already creating a negative view of US IPOs. To reward low float deals with robotic flows is absurd - The 5x uplift for stocks with less than 20% free float tears up one of the traditional and necessary trade-offs that companies made when going public. - Historically, if you want index inclusion and a lower cost of capital, you need to put real float into real public hands. - This rule creates the opposite effect. You are effectively telling issuers: keep 80–90% of the stock locked up and we will treat you, for index flows, like a 50% float company. That is a built‑in short squeeze on passive investors. - Insider shares, options, and RSUs go deep in the money, not because fundamentals improved, but because the rulebook forces passive capital to chase an artificially scarce float. Fast Entry - “Fast Entry” collapses seasoning for very large new listings. A mega‑cap IPO that hits the size threshold is pulled into the index after a token trading history. - Everyone in the market will know roughly when the forced buyer (such as the QQQ ETF) shows up. - Early listing of listed options on new IPOs can and will exaggerate this effect. I would not rule out insider involvement in that activity. - That is an invitation to structure deals, allocations, and lock‑ups around predictable index flows - This is clearly being teed up for the SpaceX and OpenAI / Anthropic IPOs. I predict that retail investors and unwitting passive investors will be harmed. Why This Matters for a Systemic Benchmark - The Nasdaq 100  / QQQ sits at the center of global ETF complex, driving trillions of dollars of futures, options, and structured product activity. - Embedding low‑float amplifiers and rapid inclusion of unseasoned giants increases concentration in names with untested liquidity and makes a mockery of price discovery. - Disorderly moves around IPOs and rebalance dates. - The use of passive capital as an insider liquidity tool, not a neutral allocator. What You Should Do - Drop the 5x low‑float multiplier. Index weight should follow freely tradable equity, not scarcity. - Tighten or rethink Fast Entry so that very large new listings prove liquidity and trading history before inclusion. - Reaffirm that the purpose of the index is investability and credible price discovery—not maximizing monetization for tightly held new issues. If you proceed with these changes as drafted, the message will be clear: Nasdaq is willing to subordinate price discovery and market integrity to the interests of insiders and deal‑makers. You are now writing that preference directly into the rules. Yours faithfully, Rupert Mitchell Former senior ECM banker, over 25 years advising issuers and investors on IPOs and capital markets offerings as a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Citi and Jefferies.
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@commonsenseplay Just a few things to challenge you on: equal weighted outperforming, EEM breaking out, oil producers, and other critical minerals, PMs. All better than TLT and fiscal still strong which could lead to hot inflation prints. Even Miran less dovish.. BUT TLT could he breaking out too
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Common Sense Investor (CSI)
Common Sense Investor (CSI)@commonsenseplay·
RETAIL IS GETTING MASSACRED - AGAIN! $OKLO $IONQ $RGTI $FIG $IREN $JOBY down 50-80% from the 2025 hype peaks! Jobs weakening. Consumer sentiment crushed. Credit delinquencies exploding. Housing market stalled and Now the Freight Index just crashed to 2009 GFC levels. Meanwhile my $TLT bonds are +3.2% YTD plus dividends BEATING the $SPY which is flat. I’ve been screaming for months: 2026 = YEAR OF THE BOND I’m all-in. Are you still bag-holding these memes hoping for a recovery or finally waking up? SMART MONEY IS EXITING WHILE RETAIL CONTINUES TO BUY - DON'T BE THEIR EXIT LIQUIDITY! Common Sense Investing Pays!
Common Sense Investor (CSI) tweet media
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@jrouldz Congrats! Cagr for each makes more sense though?
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Dr J Rould
Dr J Rould@jrouldz·
for the fan club: 10 largest positions and % gain on each (with receipts) 😎 $AAPL +5,685% $RKLB +442% $IONQ +46% $PLTR +659% $GOOG +440% $AMZN +17% $QBTS +1,855% $LMND +79% $META +256% $CRWV +26%
Dr J Rould tweet media
GIF
Dr J Rould@jrouldz

Updated top 10 positions Apple (my first ever stock purchase) is back on its throne as #1 as mega-caps claw back share of the portfolio, while speculation gets crushed been buying dips on small positions in the "other" section. full breakdown in the sub 🫡 1. $AAPL 2. $RKLB 3. $IONQ 4. $PLTR 5. $GOOG 6. $AMZN 7. $QBTS 8. $LMND 9. $META 10. $CRWV

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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@JackFarley96 Isn’t it coz there was much bigger selling in Silver and rebalancing of leveraged ETFs that sent large option volumes to heaven? If prices stabilize even after this drop, miners print money. Danger is if all 3 metals continue free falling after this monthly close
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Jack Farley
Jack Farley@JackFarley96·
Part of the reason is a lot of silver mines produce copper and a lot of copper mines produce silver Most of the world's silver actually comes from non-silver mines (Lead/Zinc mines & Copper/Gold mines)
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Jack Farley
Jack Farley@JackFarley96·
Copper down 4% Copper miners down 10% Silver down 27% Silver miners down 14% Copper miners decline is >2x underlying Silver miners down <0.5 underlying
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@jvisserlabs I thought you stood by energy is a 0?
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Jordi Visser
Jordi Visser@jvisserlabs·
As X is flooded with people trying to pick the bottom of software and the end of this trade (SMH over IGV), they should be focused on buying the next leg of the scarcity over abundance AI trade and be long XLE over IGV. First inning. Many IGV rotation body blows to come.
Jordi Visser tweet mediaJordi Visser tweet media
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Eric Seufert
Eric Seufert@eric_seufert·
Porsche sales down 10% in 2025, the largest decline since the GFC. Sales in China fell 26%; North America was the best performing region.
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@JackFarley96 No problem, but should be willing to part ways with stock market at ATH
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@LukeyTrags Equities are not getting the memo though..
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@ValueEric @TheGruvfyllo Hopefully, gold price is consolidating and that is enough to close the gap back up by end of year
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Eric from the netherlands
Eric from the netherlands@ValueEric·
In one month: Gold up 2,9% Gold miners down 10,89% That's the tweet.
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@MoonInvestr Wait, I’m planning to reallocate from big miners to mid miners and developers. I’m heading to midwit?
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@AAGresearch Luxury brands have done well lately. Auto OEMs are suffering especially German ones so this is a different story…
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Alberto Alvarez
Alberto Alvarez@AAGresearch·
Is Porsche $POAHY the canary in the coal mine? The stock is down 42% since 2022 and 60% from the ATHs When the luxury market is going down, things get ugly in the real economy
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@calvinfroedge Only if unemployment increases significantly to impact passive flows.. or else BTFD remains
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
What just happened in crypto can happen to tech. More than 75% of all levered ETFs are concentrated in just a handful of highly correlated assets.
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@DawesPoints Indeed if there’s bb and continuous bills issuance. Is that sustainable? At some point, is there systemic risk of composition = mostly ST?
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Barry Dawes
Barry Dawes@DawesPoints·
@joe_mjb Maybe not. Currently much lower ST rates COVID low coupon almost gone and 4.8, 5 and 6% ers dropping out. Buybacks of select high coupons too. $14tn maturing by end 27. >$4tn rolled over since 30 June LT fixed of course but ST falling rapidly.
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Barry Dawes
Barry Dawes@DawesPoints·
US Deficit now <6% of GDP. Budget repair underway - est $160bn surplus in Sept. Outlays finally turning down after 30 mths of flatlining. Yields collapsing lower. Big Beautiful Bond Rally. Almost 50% Treasuries maturing end27. >$4tn rolled over at ever falling ST rates #gold $NEM $GDX
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@JacobShap You would think that the general conclusion is buy a variety of assets (including some bitcoin if you want).
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Joe B
Joe B@joe_mjb·
@FibSixOne8 Some weakness in the overall sector and there’s a 2 handle..
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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
Took UNH from 7% position to 35% today. Godspeed.
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