john (touching grass)

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john (touching grass)

john (touching grass)

@john_henry

former superforecaster, physics, mba, been around VC, startups, software. now playing with 3d printing, LLM’s, sci-fi. [email protected]

USA ✈️ Amsterdam Katılım Nisan 2008
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john (touching grass)
john (touching grass)@john_henry·
Going write-only on here for a bit. I’m not happy with how I’ve managed my time and attention (lately / my whole life), and this seems like the best way to clean it up. Goals are much more output, more authenticity, and more good conversations in 2020.
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a newsman
a newsman@a_newsman·
It’s crazy you can tell by the way he speaks about each subject that the president has clearly studied every detail of the architectural drawings for his ballroom and is getting information on his war from Fox News
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Max
Max@maxtmcc·
There’s criticism toward No Kings for demanding “nothing concrete.” I disagree; they demand that Americans vote Republicans out of office, and I guarantee every attendee of No Kings will show up to do just that. By contrast, what, *concretely*, does the revolutionary left demand?
Michae|@Plz_Relax_

For all the valid critique of No Kings (and it should be deeply criticized for its reactionary reformism to demobilize and deradicalize), the revolutionary Left needs to deal with the fact that, somehow, we're still being out organized by these people. That's Our Failure.

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Erik Meijer
Erik Meijer@headinthebox·
What many people don't seem to realize when they argue that AIs cannot come up with genuinely new ideas is that almost 99% of all research papers written by humans (say in POPL, Neurips, ...) are just small deltas on existing research, with very little novelty either (hence the long list of citations and related work sections).
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Tyler John in SF 🇺🇸
Tyler John in SF 🇺🇸@tyler_m_john·
Have to wonder how much of my long term memory storage is saturated with stuff like "hm I seem to remember Miles had a good tweet in 2024 about how the future is huge economically valuable companies throwing bucketloads at inference"
Miles Brundage@Miles_Brundage

Sure, o3 shows that throwing thousands of dollars of compute can allow you to solve hard problems. But AI never gets cheaper over time, so this is the cheapest it'll ever be. And no company can afford to spend thousands of dollars solving hard problems.

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John Jackson
John Jackson@hissgoescobra·
The E-3 getting hit is a wake up call. But it’s not the first in this Iran War. The THAAD radars. The LNG facilities. We aren’t waking up is the problem. It lies with Trump’s team. The next wake up call will involve dead infantry. Then escalation will go beyond what we can fix.
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Rob Lee
Rob Lee@RALee85·
A war with Iran was an obvious scenario for CENTCOM and Iran's ballistic missile and OWA UAS capabilities are well-known. The lack of underground command posts and hardened shelters—or even concrete barriers between tents, which were common at bases in Iraq and Afghanistan—at bases well within range of Iranian missiles and drones suggests a deeper problem about how the US military draws lessons. How many senior officers and DoD officials have traveled through these bases and didn't ask about this? Are our bases in INDOPACOM similarly vulnerable? Congress should ask our defense leaders some hard questions.
Tyler Rogoway@Aviation_Intel

Hardened Underground Facilities Now Being Sought For Al Udeid Air Base Iranian attacks highlight the glaring need for hardened infrastructure and shelters to protect troops and military assets. twz.com/news-features/…

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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the Gulf. NGLs/condensate on top of that. 200 million barrels not produced in March already that should have been produced. That alone is already the largest supply shock in history. And it continues to get worse the longer Hormuz remains shut.
Rory Johnston tweet media
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David Manheim (Home)
David Manheim (Home)@davidmanheim·
I'm currently assuming that the Anthropic "Capybara" model is named after the scaling law for floating point quantization - it seems strange that they are naming after a Tencent paper, but I don't have a better guess. arxiv.org/abs/2501.02423 Anyone have competing explanations?
David Manheim (Home) tweet media
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Enterprise Computer
Enterprise Computer@EnterpriseCPU·
B'kdel Test 1) At least two named Klingons, 2) who talk to each other, 3) about something other than honor.
Enterprise Computer tweet media
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Dave Thul
Dave Thul@davethul·
70k troops in a war zone and under fire despite no action from Congress is, in fact, the exact reason for the #NoKings protest.
Hugh Hewitt@hughhewitt

70K Americans in a war zone and under fire today. More on the way. But hundreds of thousands of civilians took the Saturday to protest a non-existent king who is instead the elected @POTUS who dutifully complies with #SCOTUS ruling on tariffs (which ruling he hates and tariffs he loves) b/c…rule of law. Thanks to the troops and their families who almost certainly were not out in large numbers at today’s rallies b/c they are running families solo while spouses are deployed in harm’s way.

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Andrew Hilary🇵🇸
Andrew Hilary🇵🇸@AndrewHilaryUS·
Iran was just 2-3 weeks away from doing Jurassic park. Do you want to live in a world where the ayatollah is a velociraptor? Didn’t think so.
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SDL
SDL@SocDoneLeft·
No Kings discourse is always funny Terminally online leftists: "Pathetic neoliberal centrists, something something brunch" Socialists who go outside: "The boomer grandma to my right wants firing squads for ICE agents"
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Marko Jukic
Marko Jukic@mmjukic·
It's worth pointing out that even if the U.S. committed to a full-scale million-man invasion of Iran to conquer and occupy the entire country, it's probably at absolute best a 50% chance whether we even win or not and 100% chance of crippling bloodshed and economic destruction.
Douglass Mackey@douglassmackey

The inexorable logic of the war leads directly to full-scale ground invasion unless we’re willing to end the war on unfavorable terms — because ending the war on unfavorable terms would be humiliating and risk dollar hegemony. Well guess what? There’s no way to end the war on favorable terms without a full-scale ground invasion. Anyone who reads the WSJ opinion page understands this argument that the neocons have just now chosen to reveal (it was their secret plan the entire time). That was the entire point of Netanyahu convincing Trump to launch the decapitation strikes — the Israelis and their U.S. fifth column made a bet that we wouldn’t be willing to buck the escalation trap. A limited incursion of ground troops is not going to strengthen our negotiating position and risks further entrenchment and humiliating losses and casualties, which we are already suffering — look at the destroyed plane and double-digit casualties yesterday in Saudi Arabia. Once the limited ground troops hit the shores of Iran and inevitably get bogged down under drone and missile fire, the neocons will reveal their next argument: President Trump can’t possibly cut and run now — we must mobilize for a full-scale invasion and march on Tehran to secure the Uranium, destroy the missiles, and open the Strait of Hormuz.

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