John Smith

In a discussion with @michaeljswalker on Friday, I said that Trump was being presented options to strike civilian infrastructure in Iran. The aim would be to cripple Iran’s economy and to make it harder for Iran to persist in the war. I explained that hitting Iran’s critical infrastructure might shorten the war, but it would also intensify it. For that reason, that overall damage done to region and the global economy could end up being far worse during a shorter war. If Trump hits a major power plant, Iran will respond by hitting utilities in the Gulf states and Israel—including power plants and desalination facilities—and will count on the fact that it has to hit fewer targets to have a bigger impact. Iran has nearly 500 power plants, Israel has around 50. The largest Iranian plant, the Damavand Combined Cycle plant, accounts for about 4% of Iran’s total capacity. Israel’s largest plant, Orot Rabin, accounts for 20% of electricity production. The fact that a US president is posting a message like this on social media represents a total breakdown in the systems that are meant to ensure the US fights wars intelligently and judiciously. The commander in chief is not of sound mind, no one in his cabinet is willing to admit it, and we are being pushed towards the edge of an abyss.

@EylonALevy Now post some photos of Gaza.

This is what one Iranian ballistic missile did in Arad, Israel. This is why Israel and the US acted to stop the regime manufacturing 8,000 of these. More work tomorrow.

@JOKAQARMY1 for a fake AI video, you could at least do some decent audio.

Pete Hegseth and JD Vance.

As Tel Aviv looks evermore like Gaza, does anyone in Israel pause in introspection? Regret the glee they felt at the suffering of other people? Their full throated cries for more and more murder? Their dismissal of the women and children at their mercy as human animals? Anyone?

@EWErickson @Selkis_2028 Are you looking for a final solution to the problem of the Iranians?

Given the growing antisemitism in this country, it is now or never to finish off Iran. We'll never get the chance again. Too many people will really believe it's for the Jews instead of stopping a really evil regime that wants to kill us all. We cannot give up this fight.

I wrote this last night, and wanted to expand a little on what I meant, and what rankles me here. At the risk of leaping straight into Godwin’s Law, I actually think that parallels between Jewish responsibility for the early history of communism and German responsibility for the Holocaust are actually quite apt. It is a metaphor, so the relative responsibility isn’t totally parallel (the latter case is far more clear-cut than the former, obviously). But the ideas map closely. It is true, but not widely discussed, that German civilians suffered enormous atrocities at the end of World War 2. Not only in terms of mass rapes and civilian murder by the Red Army, but some 12-14 million ethnic German civilians were expelled from Eastern Europe, 7 million from Poland alone (arguably the largest ethnic cleansing in history). Estimates vary, but maybe somewhere between 400K and 2 million were killed in the process. Now, nobody actually says explicitly that these German civilians “deserved it”, certainly not each individual. But you might note sympathy for them is pretty thin on the ground, both then, and now. The simplest way to note this is how few people have even *heard* of this story. And most people, if they’ve even heard about these events at all, or you tell them about them, tend to shrug, and say something like “well, sucks for the people involved, but that’s what happens when you start horrific wars and engage in genocide”. You can say that’s right or wrong, fair or unfair. But that is absolutely how the events generally get treated. Moreover, you can draw these events as a series of connections to the consequences of WW2 and the Holocaust, where there’s an early period of creation and abuses, and then a later, longer history of counter-abuses. But if I were to tell a story of the Holocaust, and say, “well, it’s important to remember that even though they may have been overrepresented in starting the Holocaust and World War 2, and lots of bad stuff happened there, don’t forget that Germans were also the disproportionate victims of the Holocaust and World War 2”, most people would *not* treat that as an innocuous and neutral reading of the story. They would wonder what modern political purpose was being served by choosing to emphasize the later victimhood of people who had significantly caused a series of horrible events, even if (correctly!) the individuals suffering later were probably not the same people doing the terrible thing initially. But suppose I took it further. Suppose, whenever someone tried to bring up the disproportionate German involvement in Holocaust (and, let’s not forget, there were plenty of Romanians and Lithuanians and Ukranians involved in that too), people responded by i) Insisting that this was an anti-teutonic canard, and what about the Lithuanians who were also very overrepresented in the Holocaust, and the SS was actually the most multi-ethnic army in Europe at the time, and also how can you be sure that Ernst Rohm was really German, do you know his parents’ ancestry, and how German do you really have to be for this to count? ii) Acknowledging, okay, sure, the Germans kind of started it, but we must also talk about the abuses of medieval Jewish money-lending and debt slavery, and their role in liquor distillation and tax-farming, and so the Germans might have had good reason for their ideology (not the abuses! Nazism, like communism, was just a philosophy), and so all these unfortunate things should be thought of as bad but fundamentally understandable I suspect you would be infuriated, because it would strike you as a monstrous and twisted rendering of that history. That, readers, is roughly how I feel when people tell jokes, half of whose premise is “gosh, it really was terrible how badly the Soviet Union treated Jews.” Then they act weird went you don’t just laugh along. More broadly, the people who dislike the idea of collective Jewish responsibility for communism, typically have very little problem with the idea of collective Jewish victimhood under communism. Their reasons for opposing the former are quite fair – nobody should be held responsible for things he didn’t do, no generation should have to apologize for the actions of a different one. But there can’t be collective victimhood without the possibility of collective responsibility! The former says that Jews, as a group, were treated *badly and unfairly* by other groups. The latter says that Jews, as a group, may have been treated *badly but fairly* for their same actions. It is completely bonkers to insist that the former is a true statement about history, and the latter is incoherent and unethical to even posit. Either every man is responsible for his own actions, or he shares some responsibility, for good or bad, for members of his group that he didn’t do himself. People dislike this idea when it’s made explicit, but it is almost impossible to tell history without it. When we talk about “Japan’s reasons for entering World War 2”, or “Russia’s claims to Ukraine”, we *have* to assign a collective understanding of the group and the entity, and think of it as having a coherent set of causes, and sufferings, and actions, and responsibilities, separate from any of the members. You simply cannot tell history at the level of each individual. So it is here. The individual Jews getting discriminated against in the later Soviet Union did not personally deserve what happened to them. It was a tragedy. The individual Germans in Poland who got raped and killed also did not deserve what happened to them. It was a tragedy. Jews, as a group, were tragic and unfair victims of the Holocaust. Germans, as a group, were horrible and culpable perpetrators of the Holocaust. Jews, as a group, were very disproportionate creators of Soviet Communism, and were disproportionately involved in perpetrating its worst abuses, though groups like the Chekha and the NKVD. The victims of the abuses of Soviet Communism were more dispersed, but groups like the Ukranians are very high on the list for things like the Holodomor. A fair reading of the history of these events above would note all of the things I say. I insist only that the same standards are applied across the board. I want only to tell Jewish history the same way I tell Russian history and English history and any other history. It is rare to find real groups in real history that are pure, unvarnished victims who never did anything wrong. History is sacred to me, and I want to understand it as best I can. I want everyone else to be able to do the same. I have very little patience for people who want to emphasize collective victimhood, but will slander you and question your motives for even raising the possibility of collective responsibility - in *anything*.

@QuatoofCapital @zhil_arf Only people who are bad at math say these kind of things about common core math.

@zhil_arf Once you understand this, you understand why common core exists. When kids are told they are wrong despite getting the right answer, they give up and stop trying to be good at math. Then mr shekelstein can get them to sign 20% APR car loans.

>From these experiments, it was thought that there was to be only one cure for helplessness. In Seligman's hypothesis, the dogs do not try to escape because they expect that nothing they do will stop the shock. To change this expectation, experimenters physically picked up the dogs and moved their legs, replicating the actions the dogs would need to take in order to escape from the electrified grid. This had to be done at least twice before the dogs would start willfully jumping over the barrier on their own. In contrast, threats, rewards, and observed demonstrations had no effect on the "helpless" Group 3 dogs.

@clownmojo @academic_la You can’t destroy an opening. You can collapse the walls around it, but the rubble is easily removed with a bulldozer.

@academic_la Why does it matter if they go back underground in 10min? Can't those tunnel openings be discovered and destroyed?

I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: 1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys. 2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches 3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities 4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike. 5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them. Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.

@metahacker_ @Kingbingo_ China has spent decades pivoting away from oil. electric vehicles, electric trains, solar power, wind power, coal to liquid technology. Much higher population density. America will suffer far more.

@johnsmith3433 @Kingbingo_ if the cost of energy goes to $150 for them, they invariably suffer

Comically short sighted first-order thinking. Hormuz isn’t just oil/LNG: it’s helium, fertiliser inputs, petrochem feedstocks, industrial gases. You don’t get ‘no fuel’, you get cascading industrial failure of which the US is the largest global node. And if the US stops underwriting sea lanes, you’re eroding the very system (petrodollar) that US power sits on.

@metahacker_ @Kingbingo_ How does China get wrecked? Do you remember the over capacity complaints? If over capacity decreases, it’s America that suffers.

@Kingbingo_ China gets rekt but since everything is made in China, the US also gets rekt you're going to see inflation you've never seen before lmao

@SlumRNA_Dog @youngwerther123 What does this mean? Can you rewrite in standard English syntax?

@youngwerther123 Think think they’re selling you like a stack of gold bars or something, even a vehicle which is seriously affected by depreciation they think is just a pile of gold bars.

You really have to do business with a boomer to know what we’re talking about. They’re the king of spending a dollar to save a dime. They’ll try and sell you a house with a leaky roof, throw a fit when you find out about it, throw another when you ask them to fix it…

@SaysSimulation Do you know how to read a map?

We don't want to have to do this. But, if Iran make us take the land around the Strait of Hormuz, potentially 100+ miles inland - there are no givebacks. It could become part of an existing Gulf state, or a new country or a protectorate. Conquest has been the historically 1/

@HarryCincy @alexbward How does that affect the global price of oil?

@alexbward This should be pretty straightforward - only ships under NATO escort are allowed in the strait. Every other vessel will be sunk upon detection.

“At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.” nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/…

@amir_harati @joequant The only way Iran can feel safe from another attack is to follow North Korea’s path and own defensive nuclear weapons.

@joequant i think Iran main goal is to make sure it wont get attacked again. China priob can help here

The problem with giving Trump a victory is that the Iranians have already done so twice and they got bombed. The Russians also feel that they've been double crossed. That leaves China, and China has enough economic leverage against Trump so that China could be part of a deal.

@GBNT1952 I don’t have to be Michelangelo to appreciate his work. The whole world can tell when someone is good.

@johnsmith3433 So, don’t trust the actual experts, continue being a retard? Got it.

I’ve said this before, but a lot of people have a Netflix level understanding of warfare and a Sesame Street level understanding of geopolitics, yet they still display their dumb, uninformed opinions. John Spencer is not one of those people. He’s a true expert and one of the smartest people on this platform, especially about warfare and geopolitics. If you aren’t following him, you should be.

@SUZUKIYASUSHI55 You don’t understand what passage fee means.

イランがどのように中国を利用してアメリカを打ち負かすのか？ 昨日、イラン当局者がCNNに対して、「ホルムズ海峡を通過する石油タンカーには、通過料を人民元で支払うことを条件に航行を許可する」と明らかにした。 これは決して簡単な話ではない。 かつてアラブの指導者たち（サダム・フセインやカダフィなど）も同様のことを考えたが、結果として彼らは非業の最期を遂げた。 もしホルムズ海峡を通過する石油の決済が人民元で行われるようになったら、何が起きるのか説明しよう。 第一に、1974年に結ばれた湾岸諸国とアメリカ間の「ペトロダラー協定」が崩壊する。この協定により、石油はこれまで独占的にドルで取引されてきた。 第二に、米ドルの価値が下落し、アメリカの債務負担が増大する。輸入する全ての商品の価格が、米国内の自国通貨ベースで従来の数倍にも跳ね上がるからだ。これはまさに経済的な大量破壊兵器と言える。 第三に、米国市場の投資家、特に国債を保有する大半は、資金を国外に逃避させ、より有力な通貨を求めるだろう。これはアメリカの財政破綻を意味する。これまで米国経済を支えてきたのはドルの信認であり、実業家たちが米国債に投資してきたからだ。もしイランがこの方針を実行に移せば、彼らは直ちに新たな市場と代替通貨を求めるだろう。 第四に、ペトロダラー体制のおかげで、アメリカは債務危機のたびにドルを印刷することで、実質的には紙幣と引き換えに海外から商品を調達することができた。これが、多大な戦費や支出にもかかわらず、アメリカが経済的に持ちこたえてこれた仕組みだ。これは明白な収奪であり、世界はそれを止められずにいた。しかし、そのような状況は全て終わるだろう。もしドルの基盤が失われた後にアメリカがドルを増刷すれば、深刻なインフレを招き、物価高騰という大きな災害を引き起こす。 第五に、ホルムズ海峡を通過する全てのタンカーが人民元の役割を強化し、人民元は徐々に基軸通貨へと移行する。これは自動的に中国の経済成長を促進する。米国や欧州の投資家は、こぞって中国市場に流入するだろう。 第六に、アメリカはインフレ抑制のため金利をさらに引き上げざるを得なくなるが、それは経済活動の停滞と生産減少を意味する。これまでアメリカの戦争は、納税者や市場の余剰資金、国際的に印刷された紙幣の価値によって賄われてきたが、その戦争も直ちに停止せざるを得なくなるだろう。 第七に、台頭する人民元の強さと並行して、金（ゴールド）や暗号資産（仮想通貨）の市場も活性化するだろう。これは、特に金を保有する貧困国や、暗号資産を保有する個人・国家にとって有利に働く。もちろん、中国と経済的に関係する全ての主体が恩恵を受けることになる。 はたしてホルムズ海峡一つで、ここまでのことが本当に起きるのか？ その通りだ。世界の石油の約20%が同海峡を通過する。世界の5分の1の石油が人民元で取引されるということは、米国経済はドル印刷と国債投資による財源の少なくとも5分の1を失うことを意味する。アメリカは新たなドル印刷によってこの危機を解決することはできない。輸入する全ての物資の価格が倍増するからだ。 結果として、米国内の非常に多くの産業（工業、農業、軍事、製造業など）が、全面的あるいは部分的に打撃を受けて機能停止に陥るだろう。 そもそも、中国とロシアが主導するBRICSの主要な目的は、ドルの覇権を打破することにある。現在進行中のアメリカとイランの対立が、そのシナリオを加速させ、米国経済全体を火蓋切らせた格好だ。 皆さんはどう思うだろうか。

@27thChromossome @pati_marins64 What makes you think enriched uranium makes a good dirty bomb?

@pati_marins64 With 60% enriched uranium, Iran can, at least, drop a few dirty bombs at Israel? Besides that, the diplomatic cost of nuking a sovereign country in the currently context surpasses any gain Israel can get in the outcome? Do you think this kind of escalation is a viable option?

Any country in a confrontation with two other nuclear-armed powers enters the conflict at a disadvantage, carefully measuring its steps to avoid escalation. Seeing missiles with 1,5-2ton warheads being launched at Israel and watching how easily previous missiles bypass its defenses, I wonder how long Israel will hold out before considering tactical nuclear weapons. This is always a possibility The THAAD systems played an important role alongside the Arrows during the 12 days of war. However, with the loss of the radars, efficiency dropped even further, leaving the Arrows practically alone against this type of missile

@CarlZha What happens when the USA no longer has ISR overmatch? We will find out.

Remember people boasting that unlike China, the US has tons of combat experience? It turns out that the US never fought a country w access to satellite intelligences before.

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