NorthernMIsmoke

32 posts

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NorthernMIsmoke

NorthernMIsmoke

@justKAWSthatt

Founder / CEO that loves investing.

Katılım Ağustos 2021
20 Takip Edilen19 Takipçiler
NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@Sofigoodboy Blazar with POET is revolutionary. Helps solve the ridiculous shortage of InP. That said I’m an investor in both companies.
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SoFire
SoFire@Sofigoodboy·
$lwlg 는 $poet 보다는 확실히 개미들은 덜 붙어있는듯 최근 2~3일전 10불대 저점에서 오늘 17불 초반 찍었는데도 조용함
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DVB
DVB@DeepValueBagger·
I'm up $1m this week, now $7.2M. Have a good weekend everyone.
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@emtoh Let’s not forget the recently announced LITEON collab, Mitsubishi is in the works, Lessengers etc. Lots of upcoming catalysts that can make this rerate quickly. Also blazar is a game changer and will save so much scarce indium phosphate.
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Hetty Jones
Hetty Jones@emtoh·
@justKAWSthatt In the long term, $POET is likely to continue to grow, especially considering SIVERS' partnership and the activity in the options market. While short-term volatility remains, re-entry presents a worthwhile opportunity from an overall investment strategy perspective
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
Started to buy back into $POET today. Sold the majority of my holdings last Friday up aprox. 400%. Dont forget Thomas Mika said "we're certainly expecting this year Purchase orders that are far in excess of that five million PO" He suggested investors “won't be disappointed” 👀
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I had a decent month. Everything from: $AAOI went up 100% to $SOI went up 153.9%. $SNDK +70% or $INTC + 97.7% or $MRVL +54% or $ARM +41.5% were underperformers for me personally. Curious how you all did?
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
Agreed but the risk / reward is incredibly attractive to me. I’ve been invested in POET close to 2 years now. Also, SIVERS collab samples are ready Q2 of this year. SIVERs has been on fire so with another announcement I think poet will take back off. Also so much OI on calls, gamma squeeze round 2 coming soon.
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Hetty Jones
Hetty Jones@emtoh·
@justKAWSthatt While $POET performed well, re-entry based on Thomas Mika's expectations still warrants attention due to market volatility. Last week's profits were substantial, but cautious observation is still advised in the short term
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
$POET 주식은 현재 없지만, 쿨다운좀 하고, 사람들 사이에서 열기가 좀 식고 진정된 이후 언제든 제가 원하는 가격에 온다면 매수할 겁니다. 마벨이 계약 취소했다고, 엔지니어들의 optical interposer 결과물이 그냥 사라지는 것은 아니잖아요? 제 최근 아티클 - bonding - 에서도 예시로 POET의 optical interposer를 다뤘습니다. x.com/i/status/20501…
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Photon Capital@PhotonCap

@leadwithMMT 🫢 I am personally still supporting POET's optical interposer concept

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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@Craaazy1231 I wouldnt count POET out just yet. Remember, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Lots of big partnerships still in the mix.
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Crazy
Crazy@Craaazy1231·
I hope that I've helped at least 1 person regarding stocks: $SIVE $LPK / $LPKF $LWLG $AAOI $AEHR $M7U $IQE $NBIS $HIMS $ALRIB I'm sorry for my conviction about $POET, I did lose 50% of my portfolio. Learned from my mistakes.
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@Sandeman52 Yeah I become quite obsessive with my holdings and research them ad nauseam. I cant do that with 20+ stocks. Honestly its even hard to do with 10. If trading was ALL you did, than 10-20 sure. Im trying to keep my portfolio under 10 at the moment. IMO thats how you gain a edge.
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SandemanStocks
SandemanStocks@Sandeman52·
I honestly have no idea how anyone can own 20 stocks and know them well enough to know what is actually going on. I get it if you are in the set it and forget it mode, wanting to protect your money. But if you are trying to grow at a meaningful rate, honestly, what are you doing?
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@PhotonCap It is a rumor but it comes from a very early POET investor that has ties to management.
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
루머가 아닐지요? 이런 글을 가끔 봅니다.
Craig - selling options for the win!@craigers211

@Sofigoodboy @PhotonCap Honestly I think this story is just beginning. It sounds like Marvell tried to low ball POET and start the bidding at 10 dollars and POET’s BOD rejected that offer and so they pulled what they did. If so I think this story is just beginning and things will get spicy shortly!!

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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@JacktheES @aleabitoreddit I think you need to re-read the post sir, "Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings." It was already priced in. Hence sell the news.
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Big Jack
Big Jack@JacktheES·
The numbers are insane but the AH -4.81% tells the real story. When a stock can't rally on a 26% revenue beat + guide raised 23% above estimates, that's not "priced in"—that's late cycle behavior. Memory always feels best at the top. 2017, 2021 same script. Margins peak, then forward demand commentary starts getting "lumpy." Not saying short. Just saying chase carefully.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$SNDK earnings are just way too good... Q3 earnings: Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat) EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat) Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.) Q4 2024 projections: Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates) EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates) Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data). Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings. Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
No more light source from LITE and COHR.... then?
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt

@AnalysisOp @PhotonCap You do realize LITE and COHR are sold out until 2028 right? Photonics is literally just getting started. They are also involved in telecom in India, and there are ties to YSS and the Golden Dome now as well. Do some more readying you will see.

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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@AnalysisOp @PhotonCap You do realize LITE and COHR are sold out until 2028 right? Photonics is literally just getting started. They are also involved in telecom in India, and there are ties to YSS and the Golden Dome now as well. Do some more readying you will see.
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Alex A.C.
Alex A.C.@AnalysisOp·
@PhotonCap Are you sure about this, buddy? The InP Laser demand is NOW, but Sivers can't deliver in.... one year? more even? At the right multiple, for a long-term promising holding, ok. But at this price now? 🤔 Would be very welcome your thesis 🙏
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
Great thesis on $SIVEF / $SIVE. People keep saying there's no entry point, but yesterday gave one and today is giving another. I add on every drawdown, and it's now a significant position in my portfolio. The lesson I learned is that if you think a particular stock is promising, you should start investing in it even if it’s just a small amount. Of course, I am also liquidating my short-term holdings to realize profits at the same time, and reinvesting those funds into major stocks that I like and companies I can hold without having to constantly worry about them (less volatility).
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
Mac 🐺@MacnBTC

$SIVE +200% something in only 2.5 weeks all credit to @aleabitoreddit, made me more than I made in crypto past 5 months

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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
Gaetano@crux_capital_

CEO of Kopin Corporation just dropped a bomb in this interview $KOPN My two worlds are colliding. Data center interconnect, and microLEDs that have traditionally lived in defense. He called it Project Shasta. This post is going to be a bit technically dense, but stick with me and ask questions as needed! Here is the concept as he described it. A microLED is usually a display. A ton of tiny pixels that emit light to form an image. Shasta is the same hardware idea, but you use the pixels to transmit data, not pictures. In other words, light becomes the link. If that sounds familiar, it should. This is the same direction the interconnect stack has been moving that I cover exhaustively on this page. We are trying to move bandwidth with less power, less heat, and less loss. That is why optical keeps moving closer to the compute. What really interested me is the framing. He is not talking about a normal optical transceiver. He is talking about microLED to microLED communication through air, at very high data rates, as a possible alternative to the traditional path of copper plus retimers, or fiber plus optics. To be clear, he also said it is not ready for prime time. So I am not modeling this as a near term revenue driver. I am treating it as a real option on a future architecture shift. Lets look at the implications incase this becomes real... First, it is a direct attack on one of the hardest parts of modern compute. Moving data is becoming more expensive than computing on it. Every step of the journey adds power draw, heat, latency, and packaging complexity. The idea of turning the link into “light over distance” is an attempt to reduce how much hardware you need in between two endpoints. Second, it is a shot at the power bottleneck. In dense compute, the system spends a lot of energy just pushing bits across short distances. If you can move information with light more efficiently than copper, you reduce the watts burned on the interconnect and you reduce the cooling burden that comes with it. That feeds back into higher compute density per rack. Third, it changes where value lives. The industry has spent decades building an entire ecosystem around modules, connectors, fiber, cages, retimers, and board level plumbing. A credible optical “over the air” link would push value toward whoever controls the emitter, the receiver, and the integration know how. It becomes less about swapping parts and more about designing the platform. Fourth, it would pull optics inside the box in a new way. We typically picture optics as something that leaves the chassis through fiber. Shasta is implying an internal optical fabric where components talk directly using light without a physical cable between them. That is a different mental model. It is closer to optical wireless inside a system than it is to what we call a transceiver today. Fifth, it is a very high bar technically, which is why it is interesting. If you are sending data with microLED pixels, you need the light source to switch extremely fast. You need the receiver to interpret that signal cleanly. You need optics that collimate and aim the light. You need alignment that stays stable despite vibration, thermal expansion, and time. And you need it to work at scale, not as a lab demo. If someone clears those gates then it is a real architecture unlock. To close, if compute keeps scaling, the interconnect cannot stay a side issue. It becomes the system. Any credible path that moves bits with less power and less complexity is worth paying attention to and will draw investor curiosity, even if it is early. I'm pretty mind blown right now. Will absolutely stay on top of this Video linked in comments

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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みみりん@投資系女子@beauty_oe

インタラクティブブローカーズで、 $SIVE 遂に買えたァァ‼️😭 10日くらいかかった😂😂✨ さすがに調整あるだろうから、半額買って調整待つーっ‼️

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Johhnywalker
Johhnywalker@johhnyWalkerAZ·
Nobody should be shocked by this $POET
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NorthernMIsmoke
NorthernMIsmoke@justKAWSthatt·
@TheRayMyers $POET . Was confirmed today by their CFO they are supplying Marvel with light sources for their photonic fabric with CAI. $30+ this year mark my words.
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
Which Photonics stock is the best value right now? - $SIVE at $1B - $LITE at $64B - $COHR at $68B - $IPGP at $5B - $AAOI at $12B - $POET at $1.3B - $CIEN at $71B
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