Kaptenblu

2K posts

Kaptenblu

Kaptenblu

@kaptenblu

Failed mathematician turned failed economist. From 🇳🇴.

Katılım Temmuz 2019
1.4K Takip Edilen184 Takipçiler
Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@nominalthoughts Every time an econ critic opens his mouth, flip a coin to see whether econ has too much complex math or too little.
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Siegmeyer of Catarina
Siegmeyer of Catarina@40yoap·
@MosheEcon Why do you, as a MAN, YEARN to look at another MAN's RAW code and data? Too zesty and sus
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@captgouda24 A very important caveat here is that this is for *academia*. If you pivot from one private sector job to another, the consequences may be much nicer! It seems plausible to me that private companies would be better at accomodating people from different backgrounds.
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Nicholas Decker
Nicholas Decker@captgouda24·
Sort of a profoundly pessimistic paper. Basically, everyone gets sorted into what they’re gonna do early in life, and this is in fact completely correct and accurate, if you were going to be successful you’d’ve shown promise earlier.
Misha Teplitskiy | Science of Science@MishaTeplitskiy

New paper on PhD admissions and pivots! Scientific communities need new ideas to stay productive and relevant. One source of new ideas is students who pivot from other fields. Do such pivots pay off for the student or the community? 🤔 1/3

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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@StefanFSchubert Why is there such a big difference between Sweden and the Netherlands? I always thought the Dutch were very similar to Scandinavians, and the way their democracy works is very similar.
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Stefan Schubert
Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert·
Satisfaction with how democracy works in your country. By far the highest in Sweden.
Stefan Schubert tweet media
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@JeremiahDJohns If a rich kid gets in because his dad decided to donate a small fortune to the university despite getting lower grades/test scores, I would say that is precisely a story that a kid with strong numbers gets rejected from elite universities.
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Jeremiah Johnson 🌐
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns·
One of my least favorite discourses that pops up every single year: "This kid got a 99% SAT, and no Ivy Leagues!" followed by blaming wokeness or whatever they hate. Look. 2M kids take the SAT each year. By definition 20K will get top 1% scores. It's impossible for them all to get into the Ivy League, who admit around 15K per year. And that doesn't account for the fact that a bunch of Ivy admits are legacies, rich kids, or athletes, so the pool is actually smaller. And it doesn't account for the idea that the Ivies would legitimately rather have a kid with top 5% scores plus [other really cool thing] rather than the top 1% TestBotOptimizer. It is *not a story* that kids with strong numbers get rejected from elite universities, but every year it's portrayed as a shocking new trend caused by whatever the current culture war item is.
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@eigenrobot Great work Eigen! Now you just need to start eating fruits and vegetables, because they are both tasty and healthy if properly prepared.
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@AlecStapp Reading Alan Blinder's otherwise great book on the financial crisis is funny on this; he treats it as completely obvious that house prices could never be sustainable at such high levels as in 2006.
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Alec Stapp
Alec Stapp@AlecStapp·
The housing “bubble” in the late 2000s looks quaint by comparison now
Alec Stapp tweet media
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@ernietedeschi Hold on there, we don't know if health care is a superior good. That's just what you have to assume for this data to make sense. Alternative explanations may be possible, too.
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Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi·
Two important takeaways: 1. Health care is a superior good. As a country becomes richer, it will choose to spend more on health. 2. This tells you nothing about outcomes/efficiency. A country may spend a lot & still not get as high of a return on life expectancy etc as others.
Sylvain Catherine@sc_cath

La raison pour laquelle les Etats-Unis consacrent une part plus importante de leur PIB à la santé est que cette dernière est un bien supérieur: une forme de consommation dont la part dans le budget des ménages croit plus que proportionnellement avec leur niveau de revenu. À travers l’ensemble des pays de l’OCDE, une hausse de 1% du PIB se traduit par une hausse de 1,8% des dépenses de santé. La relation log-linéaire des dépenses de santé avec le PIB par habitant est très robuste et les États-Unis sont au niveau attendu étant donné leur richesse. C’est vrai à travers tant de systèmes différents que ça n’a à l’évidence pas de rapport avec la thèse de Boris Vallaud. Ce qui ne dit rien de l’efficacité de leur système ou du nôtre par ailleurs.

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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@kingofthecoastt @Jabaluck @zarekcb So why do you think the US has higher NAHDI relative to GDP/capita PPP, compared to say, norway, the netherlands or Switzerland? Is it because the US gov deficit leads to more consumption relative to production? What is your hypothesis here?
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KingoftheCoast
KingoftheCoast@kingofthecoastt·
@Jabaluck @zarekcb ...corporate retained earning from high re-investment needs, etc. If you want a good example that illustrates the exact opposite of the US case, look at Singapore. They look like they spend none of GDP consuming healthcare, but it's bc households don't consume much in general.
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Jason Abaluck
Jason Abaluck@Jabaluck·
Buried in the comments is an important clarification by @zarekcb. The US is still an outlier on a log scale when the conventional GDP per capita measured is used. The US is no longer an outlier when the measure is household net adjusted disposable income per capita.
Jason Abaluck tweet mediaJason Abaluck tweet media
Sylvain Catherine@sc_cath

La raison pour laquelle les Etats-Unis consacrent une part plus importante de leur PIB à la santé est que cette dernière est un bien supérieur: une forme de consommation dont la part dans le budget des ménages croit plus que proportionnellement avec leur niveau de revenu. À travers l’ensemble des pays de l’OCDE, une hausse de 1% du PIB se traduit par une hausse de 1,8% des dépenses de santé. La relation log-linéaire des dépenses de santé avec le PIB par habitant est très robuste et les États-Unis sont au niveau attendu étant donné leur richesse. C’est vrai à travers tant de systèmes différents que ça n’a à l’évidence pas de rapport avec la thèse de Boris Vallaud. Ce qui ne dit rien de l’efficacité de leur système ou du nôtre par ailleurs.

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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@sc_cath Do you know why the US has so much higher net adjusted household disposable income per capita compared to Norway, Denmark and the Dutch? Their GDP/capita is only slightly higher than DNK and NL and about the same as NO. Is it because they take on more government debt?
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Sylvain Catherine
Sylvain Catherine@sc_cath·
La raison pour laquelle les Etats-Unis consacrent une part plus importante de leur PIB à la santé est que cette dernière est un bien supérieur: une forme de consommation dont la part dans le budget des ménages croit plus que proportionnellement avec leur niveau de revenu. À travers l’ensemble des pays de l’OCDE, une hausse de 1% du PIB se traduit par une hausse de 1,8% des dépenses de santé. La relation log-linéaire des dépenses de santé avec le PIB par habitant est très robuste et les États-Unis sont au niveau attendu étant donné leur richesse. C’est vrai à travers tant de systèmes différents que ça n’a à l’évidence pas de rapport avec la thèse de Boris Vallaud. Ce qui ne dit rien de l’efficacité de leur système ou du nôtre par ailleurs.
Sylvain Catherine tweet media
C dans l'air@Cdanslair

"Ce qui coûte cher, c’est la marchandisation. La nationalisation est un des outils ; une régulation beaucoup plus exigeante aussi (...) Changer la vie est une promesse que porte la démarchandisation" @BorisVallaud de @Caroline_Roux #cdanslair

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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@mean_field_zane I was imagining that this was a public vote and all our institutions proclaimed that everyone should and will vote blue, everyone trusted that commitment and then a majority votes blue. Not rigorous of course, but I imagine a lot of people in the poll think like this.
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𝔐𝔽𝓩
𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·
@kaptenblu Align w/reality means the beliefs are the law of nature as well. I think coordination is underspecified here. What sort of coordination?
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𝔐𝔽𝓩
𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·
I actually did the game theory math on this. Unfortunately, in the standard game with no communication/cooperation, asymmetric information, and self-interested agents, red weakly dominates. Red is equilibrium. I’m gonna now go look at what modifications of the game change this.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@mean_field_zane What do you mean by "align with reality" here? The way I interpret it, in the real world there would always be someone voting incorrectly through mistake. Coordination could then make it more likely that blue would win. At least that's my intuition; haven't done the math.
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𝔐𝔽𝓩
𝔐𝔽𝓩@mean_field_zane·
@kaptenblu Why do you think coordination changes this? Even revealing the full distribution of types or aligning it with reality still doesn’t take away the robustness of red.
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@GarrettPetersen Treaty of Kiel from 1814. We were handed over to those evil Swedes.
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@EHPlimsoll1 This is a common argument from the heterodox people and they seem to forget that Gary Becker included altruism in his models(e.g. rotten kid theorem), which means Becker wasn't an orthodox economist by their definition, which is obviously ridiculous.
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Kaptenblu
Kaptenblu@kaptenblu·
@eigenrobot That's like every time zone on earth being compared to some random London suburb.
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eigenrobot
eigenrobot@eigenrobot·
if you want to understand the world consider for a moment that the .gov and .mil TLDs belong exclusively to the government and military of the USA specifically
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Keşfet

@nominalthoughts @MosheEcon @captgouda24 @StefanFSchubert @JeremiahDJohns @eigenrobot @AlecStapp @ernietedeschi